Primetime Picture Week 12: Packers @ 49ers
By Peyton Schultze
Despite a back-and-forth contest with the Cardinals on Sunday, the 49ers pulled off their ninth win of the season to keep them at the top of the NFC (via Twitter NBC49ers).
Welcome to the latest edition of Primetime Picture, our weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. In celebration of the league’s 100th season, we have a battle of two traditional football foes duking it out this weekend in the Bay Area. On Sunday night, future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers takes the steady Green Bay Packers to The Golden State for a battle with Richard Sherman and the dominant San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football (5:20 PST, NBC).
In a NFC North division with projected preseason playoff teams such as the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, few could have seen how well the Packers (8-2) would end up playing in Matt LaFleur’s first season as head coach in Green Bay. With an offense led by the legendary gunslinger Aaron Rodgers, simply anything is possible. But with superb play from breakout running back Aaron Jones and steady play all across the offensive line, this version of the Packers’ offense looks like one that could benefit them later down the road in the playoffs. In addition to this, Green Bay has yet to even tap their full potential on offense, as they have dearly missed wide receiver Davante Adams for several games due to a toe injury. Now with Rodgers, Jones, and Adams back and all on the field at the same time together, expect major things from the Green Bay offense. Yet the Packers’ defense has also been a major storyline for a large part of their season, especially early on. With a sudden ability to rush the opposing quarterbacks with pass rushers such as Preston and Za’Darius Smith, as well as lock up wide receivers in a nice secondary led by Adrian Amos and Jaire Alexander, the Packers’ defense has been a much-improved unit for a large portion of the season. However, both sides of the ball will face perhaps their biggest test of the season on Sunday night, as many people around the league have billed their opponent as a potential Super Bowl favorite in the NFC.
The 49ers (9-1) have had a truly special year up in San Francisco, but have began to show some signs of regression in recent weeks against some tough divisional opponents. However, this does not take away from how awesome they have been on both sides of the ball this season. Led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo on offense, the 49ers have become a supercharged unit capable of putting up 40 points or more on a weekly basis if they play their style of football. With a strong supporting class featuring star players such as George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders, Garoppolo’s offense has only just began to find its groove for what many expect to be a year full of destiny. However, the main story for this team has been the spectacular play of their defense, led by future Hall of Famer Richard Sherman and the likely Defensive Rookie of the Year in pass rusher Nick Bosa. With the ability to get after opposing signal callers all day at a high level with some nasty defensive linemen, as well as lock up passing games with a strong secondary, the 49ers’ defense has become a unit that is on a legendary path toward glory. Although they have slipped up a bit recently against quarterbacks such as likely league MVP Russell Wilson and rookie sensation Kyler Murray, this is still a defense that is one of the three best on that side of the ball in the league. With weapons on both sides of the ball and plenty of desire to get back to the Super Bowl since their tough loss to the Ravens in 2013, this is a team that is as dangerous as any to capture the Lombardi trophy this February in Miami.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were able to secure a nice win over the Panthers despite snowy conditions in their last appearance (via Heavy.com).
Another year and even more excellence from Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Although Green Bay’s 17th ranked offense in terms of total yardage doesn’t jump off the page, this is a team that will have one of the best offenses in the league for as long as Rodgers takes the field. However, this year has presented some new weapons on offense for the former league MVP, as several playmakers have had a massive role in Green Bay’s success on offense. Other than a great offensive line, one of these has been breakout stud Aaron Jones, who has become the best running back that the Packers have had in years. With hard-hitting juke moves and a tough running mentality, Jones has become a fan favorite in Green Bay and given some real juice to this offense. In addition, especially compared to their lackluster effort a season ago in Mike McCarthy’s last year as Packers’ head coach, other key weapons such as Jimmy Graham and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have become reliable players in this offense at Rodgers’ disposal. Meanwhile, when healthy, Davante Adams is still as lethal as any receiver in the league, and the connection between him and Rodgers remains a deadly duo for defenses to guard. After McCarthy was fired and Green Bay went in a new direction, many around the league made a big deal about the potential relationship between Rodgers and LaFleur in the offseason. Yet after major success so far in his first year at the helm, it is fair to say that so far, so good in Titletown.
Even though their success was much more of an early-season headliner than it is right now, this Packers’ defense is an improved unit compared to their terrible performances in recent years. With a great secondary starring talents such as Adrian Amos, Jaire Alexander, and Darnell Savage that can matchup head-to-head with any passing offense in the league, defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has had some solid success with the 2019 Packers’ defense. With that being said, recent weeks have also provided some unforeseen confidence in their defense among the Packers’ fan base after some nice performances. For example, after a notable and improved gameplan in their last matchup against Christian McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers, it is fair to say that this defense still has untapped potential to improve. Although they have struggled much more against the run this season than expected, the Packers runs out several great players in their front seven. If studs such as Blake Martinez, Preston Smith, and Za’Darius Smith can begin to stop the run and mostly continue their great play for the rest of the season as the schedule gets tighter, this Green Bay unit can really start to excel and make some game-changing plays to get Rodgers and company back on the field to put up some more points. However, if Green Bay can’t fix their holes on defense and continue to be left on the field for far too long, the Packers could have a major flaw on their hands as the season comes to a close.
The Niners showed major poise against the Cardinals in Week 11, as they were able to overcome a large deficit and secure a win (via SF Chronicle).
Led by extremely creative game planning from head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers’ offense has become a great unit this season with a nice running game and tons of efficiency in the play-action passing game. Led by an excellent committee of running backs featuring studs such as Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman, the Niners have found a lot of success on the ground behind a very good offensive line that is just now getting healthy. In addition, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has really started to turn into his own over the last several weeks, with plenty of sensational throws, easy touchdowns, and great play down the stretch in 4th quarter. If Garoppolo can continue this play until the end of the season, the Niners will be a legit Super Bowl contender with a chance to capture glory in February. To help Garoppolo around the offense are other solid players such as Deebo Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, Marquise Goodwin, and elite tight end George Kittle. The All-Star tight end is one of the best offensive players in football, and the Niners are automatically a much better team when he is healthy and on the field. If Kittle and the rest of the receiving group can step up on offense as the 49ers prepare to square off against several other contenders, this is a dangerous offense that can put up plenty of points on a weekly basis.
The real success of the 49ers’ season thus far, however, has largely been due to the phenomenal play of the San Francisco defense. A season ago, the Niners were one of the worst teams in the league at creating turnovers and getting after the quarterback. This season, though, has been a complete 180, as the Niners have been able to cause chaos for opposing offenses all season long. The true strength of this defense is on their defensive line, where sensational defenders such as Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and DeForest Buckner have shredded offensive linemen all season long. With the ability to shut down the run game and get after quarterbacks, the 49ers’ defensive linemen have become a potent group that teams must focus on every week. Elsewhere, San Francisco has been very good in their secondary, where players such as Pro Bowler Richard Sherman and solid corner Jaquiski Tartt have put together very good seasons. If this type of play can continue as the 49ers’ tough schedule begins to ramp up against some of the best QBs in the league, San Francisco can run the table to the top seed and a first round bye in the NFC playoffs. It’s been an awesome year for the San Francisco defense, and we’ll see just how far this defense can take the rest of the team as the season nears January.
Running back Aaron Jones has been a breakout superstar this season for the lethal Green Bay offense (via Flipboard).
Packers’ Keys to the Game: Use Jones Effectively and Limit Kittle’s Production if He Plays
Aaron Jones has quickly turned into one of the best running backs in all of football this season with eleven rushing touchdowns (tied for the league lead alongside Dalvin Cook) and plenty of spectacular highlights. With the increasingly important ability to catch the ball out of the backfield as well as run the ball up the gut, Jones has been the offensive spark that the Packers’ run game has lacked for years. However, in both of Green Bay’s losses, Jones was basically a non-factor and didn’t contribute much on the offensive end. This makes his usage so important this weekend, as Jones has helped take the pressure off Aaron Rodgers a lot more this season in one of the league’s best offensive units. If Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur can create a solid gameplan revolving around the talents of Jones this weekend against an exceptional 49er defense, this game could come down to the wire and result in a huge win for the Packers
One of the main reasons that San Francisco has not been quite as dominant in recent weeks has been due to the absence of star tight end George Kittle. Kittle is simply the 49ers best offensive player, and he plays a central role that cannot be replicated in both the running and passing games. With that being said, the 49ers will likely look his way a ton if he plays on Sunday, which makes it imperative that the Packers focus on limiting his effectiveness. With the Packers’ defense continuing their drastic decline over the course of the season after a fast start, all eyes will be on them to see if this is a unit capable of stepping up against some of the best offenses in the NFC. If they fail to limit the Niners’ awesome tight end on Sunday, however, this Packers’ defense could face some massive scrutiny in the coming weeks as the season heads toward postseason play.
Rookie pass rusher Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ defense will face the nearly impossible challenge of trying to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night (via ESPN).
49ers’ Keys to the Game: Use Their Creative Run Scheme and Limit Rodgers’ Mobility
The 49ers’ best offense is when they are running the football at a high level with their committee of solid running backs behind a dominant offensive line. However, in recent weeks, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been forced to help carry the load for this offense, which has resulted in tight contests and less points on the board. Although these close games have proved Garoppolo’s ability to step up in big moments down the stretch, this is not the way that the Niners want to be playing on offense on a week-to-week basis. With that being said, the Niners’ major key on Sunday will be to return to their offensive roots of running the football at a high level against a poor rushing defense. If San Francisco can run for over 100 yards on the ground and keep Rodgers and company off the field while doing so, this could be a great night for 49ers’ fans on Sunday Night Football.
San Francisco’s sudden problem of having to deal with quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray have exposed one of their only true flaws on the defensive end: defending mobile quarterbacks. This weekend, the Niners will face off against one of the most mobile quarterbacks of all-time in Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which could present a major problem for the San Francisco defense in pass coverage. If Rodgers is allowed to buy extra time for his receivers downfield and move the ball at a high level for the Green Bay offense, the Packers could have a major advantage in this game. However, if Rodgers is pressured at a high level in the pocket and sacked several times by the 49ers’ awesome pass rush, San Francisco could hold the key to beating Rodgers’ Packers. This is a battle that may decide the game on Sunday night, and it gives us a legitimate shot at watching a key matchup in a potential NFC Championship Game preview under the bright lights of Levi’s Stadium.
The Packers could be in position to secure one of the biggest wins of the season on the road against the loaded San Francisco defense (via Flipboard).
Prediction: Green Bay Packers (27) - San Francisco (26)
Green Bay and San Francisco enter Sunday’s matchup as the two best teams in the NFC, which makes the stakes for this game extremely high. Although the Niners have largely been considered the best team in the conference for most of the season, they have struggled a bit in recent weeks against some divisional opponents. In addition, Green Bay has mostly been a quietly consistent team for most of the season, with only two losses to the Eagles and Chargers.. The Packers will also benefit coming off a much-needed bye week, which will give LaFleur two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ trickery on both sides of the ball. It’s a major battle of two unstoppable forces on Sunday Night Football this weekend, and it should be an awesome fight between two teams that could see each other later in the season again.
Nevertheless, this is a major game for both teams that is as hard as any game over the course of the season to predict. Although the San Francisco crowd will be as loud as ever in their biggest game in years, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have proven to be a difficult team to beat on the road this season with road wins against the Bears, Dallas, and Kansas City. However, the 49ers may be the most dominant team in the NFL when they are firing on all cylinders, which makes this game essentially a tossup with both teams fighting for playoff seeding in the NFC. It is fair to trust Aaron Rodgers a lot more than Jimmy Garoppolo in a game of this magnitude, and this advantage should present a slight edge to the Packers, even on the road. We’ll take the Packers on a late game-winning drive behind some Rodgers’ magic, but this will ultimately be one of the best game of the years up in the Bay Area.
Betting: Green Bay (+3.0) @ San Francisco
With two teams like this squaring off in primetime, and without a noticeable spread that stands out in a major way, this is a bet that should generally be avoided. However, if you do choose to go ahead and bet this game, the Packers should be the team to take on Sunday Night Football. Per usual, Aaron Rodgers has excelled as a road underdog over the course of his career, and it would not be a surprise to play well under the lights on Sunday once again. Even though the 49ers’ defense is full of potential Pro Bowlers this season, Rodgers will likely play well if he can escape pressure and play some backyard football outside of the pocket with receivers downfield. In addition, the Niners’ hiccups in recent weeks are a bit of a concern heading into the weekend, so the Packers seem like the team to pick from a betting standpoint. Expect a game that is more low scoring than expected that could come down to the final drive of the game, so proceed here with major caution. Go all-in on the Packers if you must, but do not be shocked if the Niners put together one of their better performances of the season against a quality opponent.