NFL Weekly Wonder, Edition #5
By Peyton Schultze
The Panthers’ surprise win in Week 4 showed the organization’s rebuild may be way ahead of schedule in head coach Matt Rhule’s first year as head coach (via ABC11 Raleigh-Durham).
Week 4 surely saw the largest amount of COVID-19 related fears around the league, which sent the league’s schedule spiraling.
But the games continued, and there were several big time moments with major implications. From the Browns’ incredible offensive showcase on the road against the Cowboys to the Packers’ continued domination against the Falcons on Monday Night Football, there was plenty of firepower scattered around the league. With Week 5 right ahead, and with even more controversy surrounding two star players and an entire organization that may have to delay another game, there should be plenty of additional drama this coming weekend.
So what will we see in Week 5? Which borderline contender can make their mark in the battle between Indianapolis and Cleveland? Will the Titans and Patriots even play this week after health scares? How many combined points will the Seahawks and Vikings score on Sunday Night Football? And will the Buccaneers keep rolling with a primetime win on the road against the Bears? Let’s look ahead at an interesting Week 4 slate featuring some enticing matchups.
Game-By-Game Looks
Tom Brady’s incredible Week 5 performance was much needed in an extraordinary comeback effort against the Chargers that saw five passing touchdowns from the future Hall of Famer (via Associated Press).
Thursday: Tampa Bay (-4.5) @ Chicago, 5:20 PM PT, FOX/NFL Network
After several straight boring Thursday Night Football matchups, Week 5 sees one of the better primetime games of the young season with Tom Brady and the Bucs heading on the road to the Windy City. And with three straight wins after their disappointing Week 1 performance against the rival Saints, Tampa Bay is rolling with all sorts of momentum on their side on both offense and defense. The Bears are a borderline playoff team that will have some better days ahead in the year, but the Buccaneers are heating up and have a nice matchup in store for them with a struggling Chicago offense in front of them.
Chicago: 17 Tampa Bay: 28
Sunday: Las Vegas @ Kansas City (-12.5), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
So much for the Raiders’ excellent 2-0 start after a dramatic Monday Night win over the Saints in Week 2, as Las Vegas has dropped two consecutive games to two potential playoff teams out in the AFC East. This should be a scary sign for a team that heads into a matchup this week with the reigning Super Bowl champions, who barely were able to squeak out a win last week despite some unexpectedly poor offensive play. Expect Kansas City to really take it to their rivals at home on Sunday, with big numbers across the board from Patrick Mahomes and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Las Vegas: 16 Kansas City: 35
Sunday: Carolina @ Atlanta (-2.5), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Of all the teams that many expected to be near the bottom of the standings, Carolina has to be considered perhaps the most impressive. Now boasting a potent offense that has quarterback Teddy Bridgewater flourishing under head coach Matt Rhule, the Panthers have put up a ton of points even without Christian McCaffrey healthy and in the lineup. This should be frightening for a team that almost appears to have given up through four games in Atlanta, as the Falcons’ defense has crumbled against opposing offenses. It’s a tough call due to the Falcons’ ability on offense to always put up points, but we’ll take the Panthers on the road in a NFC South shootout.
Atlanta: 27 Carolina: 35
Sunday: Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-13.0), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
Baltimore is still a top-five Super Bowl contender that just happened to slip up against another fellow contender two weeks ago, so their easy win last week should not have come as any sort of surprise. The Ravens have pounced on weaker competition since Lamar Jackson became the team’s face of the franchise two years ago, and expect that trend to continue once again this weekend. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow has played great to kick off his young career, and it will be interesting to see how he does against a good-but-underwhelming defense, but the Ravens should cruise to another win this weekend.
Cincinnati: 23 Baltimore: 42
Sunday: Jacksonville @ Houston (-6.5), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
The Houston Texans finally made the inevitable decision of firing head coach Bill O’Brien over the week, although it did come at an odd time considering their nearly-impossible early schedule. So how will Deshaun Watson and the Texans come out in Week 5 as they try to secure their first win of the season? For the sake of the team, fans better hope the Texans start fast. If not, quarterback Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars’ offense has a chance to pull off another big-time upset in the division that could surely send even louder shock waves throughout the Texans’ organization.
Houston: 24 Jacksonville: 28
Sunday: Arizona (-7.0) @ New York J., 10:00 AM PT, FOX
With Sam Darnold now listed as out for this week’s matchup at home versus the Cardinals, it appears the sky has all but already fallen for head coach Adam Gase and fans of Gang Green in New York City. Now, veteran Joe Flacco takes over as the Jets’ starter at quarterback this weekend, and he’ll face a team in Arizona that is surely hungry for some redemption after two straight disappointing losses. Kyler Murray should have his best game of the season thus far against a weak New York defense, and the Cardinals should roll to a nice win on Sunday before prepping for next week’s mega-matchup on Monday Night Football versus the Cowboys.
New York J.: 13 Arizona: 31
Sunday: Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh (-7.0), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Pittsburgh’s bye week surely came at an unexpectedly odd time, but the extra early rest should have them firing out of the gates on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles had a very impressive road win last weekend against the 49ers, but the Steelers present a major challenge on the offensive line with the league’s most lethal pass rush. Carson Wentz and the Philly offense would need to have their best game of the year in order to pull off the upset against a defense of this nature, so take the Steelers comfortably at home in their fourth win of the young season.
Philadelphia: 12 Pittsburgh: 23
Sunday: Los Angeles R. (-8.5) @ Washington, 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Week 4 wasn’t the best showing for the Rams’ offense by any means, but a big play from Jared Goff to Cooper Kupp was all they needed to seal the deal for another early season win for LA. Now, as the Rams head across the coast for a battle in the nation’s capital, they’ll hope to keep their ground in the competitive race for the top of the NFC West. Washington’s defense has the tools to give Los Angeles some difficulties in the passing game, but with Washington now starting quarterback Kyle Allen over Dwayne Haskins, it is hard to have any confidence in picking one of the league’s worst teams.
Washington: 13 Los Angeles R.: 28
Despite three questionable interceptions, Broncos’ quarterback Brett Rypien played relatively well in his first career start on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 (via ESPN).
Sunday: Buffalo @ Tennessee (No Line), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
It is a major question if the Titans will even be ready to suit up by the time kickoff rolls around after two more positive tests today, but here’s to hoping that we get to see possibly the most interesting matchup of Week 5. The Bills have been one of the most surprising stories of the league with quarterback Josh Allen playing at such a high level, and they have a real chance of capturing a statement win against one of the AFC’s best this weekend. The odds are stacked against the Titans right now with so much uncertainty around the organization, so we’ll take the Bills to claw their way to a win and stay undefeated.
Tennessee: 17 Buffalo: 30
Sunday: Miami @ San Francisco (-8.5), 1:05 PM PT, FOX
Another game where the line has a great chance of moving all weekend long based on the status of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, Miami heads west for a battle with the reigning NFC champions. But these 49ers aren’t the same as last year; they have been dismantled by injuries and will need every win they can get to stay in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins are a team that can really sneak up on teams (as they almost did last weekend versus Seattle) and have proven to be able to move the ball effectively on offense. This is a very dangerous game for San Francisco, and we’ll take the Dolphins in the upset of the week.
San Francisco: 17 Miami: 23
Sunday: Indianapolis (-2.0) @ Cleveland, 1:25 PM PT, CBS
A battle of two AFC playoff hopefuls with major implications that could play-in down the line in the season, Indianapolis and Cleveland enter Week 5 with a chance to make a statement toward the rest of the league. The Colts’ lethal defense and the Browns’ potent offense have been the headliners so far in the season for each of these squads, but the real battle will be won in the turnover department on Sunday afternoon. With that, we’ll give the edge to a Colts’ defense that has a chance to cause havoc for a mistake-prone signal caller in Baker Mayfield. It should be tight, but look for Indy to squeak out a decisive win this weekend on the road.
Cleveland: 20 Indianapolis: 23
Sunday: Denver @ New England (-11.0), 1:25 PM PT, CBS
This game’s line has a real chance of shifting all over the place over the course of the week too, so make sure to pay attention to quarterback updates for both teams. Drew Lock (shoulder) and Cam Newton (COVID-19 Protocol) are both questionable to play this week, and we may not even know until Sunday afternoon if they’ll be able to suit up. And now with cornerback Stephon Gilmore likely out for Sunday’s game as well, the plot has thickened even more. But the game comes down to this: if Newton can’t play, Denver has a real chance to win despite a lot of injuries. We’ll optimistically say the star quarterback can suit up, and we’ll take the Patriots at home until further notice.
Denver: 13 New England: 21
Sunday: New York G. @ Dallas (-10.0), 1:25 PM PT, FOX
Dallas’ 1-3 record doesn’t show just how great quarterback Dak Prescott has played through the first quarter of the regular season, but he would surely be in the middle of the MVP conversation if the Cowboys had turned at least two of those losses into wins. But if the Cowboys want to get back on track and to the top of the NFC East, two things must happen: Ezekiel Elliott must take over games once again and the Cowboys’ pass rush needs to start firing. Luckily, both of those things should be able to happen this weekend against an inferior opponent, as Dallas will roar to a blowout win on Sunday afternoon at AT&T Stadium.
New York G.: 20 Dallas: 38
Sunday: Minnesota @ Seattle (-7.0), 5:20 PM PT, NBC
A very interesting matchup in the NFC over the past several seasons, Minnesota and Seattle enter Week 5 with a chance at putting up a massive amount of points against one another. Both of these teams have performed pretty well on offense (especially quarterback Russell Wilson, the leading candidate for early-season MVP), but their fatal flaw has been the inconsistency of their defense. It hasn’t bit the Seahawks enough yet to give them a loss on their record, but the Vikings present a very tough challenge in the form of running back Dalvin Cook and a lethal receiving core. If this was in Minnesota behind a home crowd, we would be taking the Vikings with confidence, but Seattle will find a way to pull of another win and stay undefeated in a thrilling finish to the Sunday slate.
Minnesota: 33 Seattle: 38
Monday: Los Angeles C. @ New Orleans (-7.5), 5:15 PM PT, ESPN
The last game of the week happens to be one of the most interesting matchups as well, as the Saints get ready to deal with one of the most unpredictable teams in the league with the Los Angeles Chargers. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has shown flashes of greatness in the early part of his career, and his battle with one of the league’s greatest quarterbacks should be an intriguing battle all night long. The Chargers are way better than their 1-3 record shows and are an extremely tempting pick on Monday night, but the Saints will find a way to move the ball on offense on the heels of Alvin Kamara and the return of Michael Thomas in a very tight win.
Los Angeles C.: 23 New Orleans: 24
Daily Fantasy Targets
Running back James Robinson has emerged as the lead back for the Jaguars’ surprisingly competent offense (via Florida Times-Union).
Quarterbacks: Philip Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) and Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings)
Neither of these options is extremely encouraging considering their run-oriented offensive schemes, but matchups against two of the worst pass defenses in the league could make things very interesting this weekend. For Philip Rivers, the Colts face off against a weak Browns’ secondary that was torched a week ago for over 500 yards from quarterback Dak Prescott. This isn’t to say that fans can expect quite that performance from the aged quarterback in Indy, but the Colts should certainly open up their vertical passing game much more this weekend than in the past several weeks. For the Vikings, Kirk Cousins may have to air it out much more than he has at any point so far in the season. The Seahawks’ offense is as potent as they come in the league, but their defense has surely allowed plenty of big plays on their own and has had some trouble avoiding big-time shootouts. This should be a great sign for a Minnesota passing attack that is continuing to get better, especially with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen having very nice seasons on the outside. Dalvin Cook will always get his fair share of touches when he’s in the lineup, but look for some bigger numbers from Cousins this weekend on the road on Sunday Night Football.
Running Backs: Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) and James Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Cowboys’ offense has not been their problem whatsoever (except for their sudden fumbling issues), but their offensive tempo and slow starts have been. Often trailing early and being forced to constantly air it out with Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have trailed away from their successful formula of running the ball with one of the best running backs in the league. And while the Giants’ defense is not nearly as bad as many expected it to be, they are certainly not a team that the Cowboys fear week in and week out in their division. With that being said, Zeke should get the ball early and often this Sunday for the Cowboys, which should lead them to a much-needed win at home against a divisional rival. In another divisional matchup between the Texans and Jaguars, look for running back James Robinson to continue his hot start to the season. Four weeks ago, Robinson happened to be a non-name running back who wasn’t popping up on many fantasy radars. But now? He’s a top-ten fantasy back at the moment and has become a lethal weapon for the Jags’ offense. And with an intriguing matchup this weekend against a Texans’ defense that just fired their head coach and allowed Dalvin Cook to run all over them once again, maybe Sunday is the day where Robinson begins to make a name for himself as a legitimate starting running back for the future plans in Jacksonville.
Wide Receivers: Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings) and Darius Slayton (New York Giants)
When healthy, wide reciever Adam Thielen is still as good as anyone in the league. At full strength and as the Vikings’ clear #1 option with Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo, Thielen has jumped out of the gates in 2020 despite Minnesota’s 1-3 record. The Vikings match up against a Seahawks’ defense that has allowed far too many points in the early season, and it seems entirely possible that Kirk Cousins will be asked to throw much more this weekend if the Vikings’ defense allows Russell Wilson to keep cooking. If that’s the case, Thielen could be a top-five option at this position this week and have a huge night. Meanwhile, the battle of the Cowboys and Giants will be interesting to watch due to the bad habits of the Cowboys’ defense. However, quarterback Daniel Jones has not been any more impressive, and pressure is suddenly swirling all around him in New York. Nevertheless, Jones has found a strong connection with reciever Darius Slayton, which is a great sign for fantasy owners expecting big numbers this weekend. The combination of Slayton’s increased targets and Dallas’ poor secondary is great news for daily fantasy users, as Slayton could be in position for another impressive showing on Sunday afternoon.
Tight Ends: Hunter Henry (Los Angeles Chargers) and Mo Alie-Cox (Indianapolis Colts)
New Orleans’ defense is still a very good unit across the board, but they have actually struggled to defend tight ends all year long. This was ever-so-evident in their Week 2 matchup against Darren Waller and the Raiders, who torched them all night long in a shocking win. Now, as the Chargers head on the road against New Orleans on Monday Night Football, look for the versatile Henry to have a big game. Henry is a red-zone weapon that could be huge on Monday for rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, and it would not be a surprise to see him get at least eight total targets on the night. If there’s a late Monday night play of interest, this is it. Meanwhile, quarterback Philip Rivers has done a nice job of forming a bond with his impressive group of tight ends in his first year in Indianapolis. This has been especially clear in the form of Mo Alie-Cox, a former basketball player at VCU who appears to be a lethal weapon in the red-zone for Rivers. And with the Browns struggling to defend anyone in the passing game as of late, look for Rivers to look several times toward Alie-Cox in what could be a game that is higher scoring than previously expected.
Defenses: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Philadelphia) and Miami (vs San Francisco)
As big of a mismatch as you’ll see all year long, the battle between the Eagles’ offensive line and the Steelers’ pass rush should be a treat for all fans of defensive football. The Eagles have struggled to protect quarterback Carson Wentz all year long, and it appears they’re running into the wrong team at the wrong time now that the healthy Steelers are coming off a bye week of their own. Philadelphia’s offense is still a complete mess despite their win last week and the Steelers are perhaps the best defense in all of football, which could mean insane production this weekend from a fantasy standpoint. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ quarterback situation looks dreadful all of a sudden with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo still injured. If the quarterback can’t suit up this weekend, Miami is certainly a strong defensive play after a nice performance last weekend against the best quarterback in the league. Nobody knows quite yet who San Francisco will roll out behind center on Sunday, but if it is anyone other than Jimmy G, Miami’s super underrated defense could cause a ton of havoc in a surprise win.
Fanatical Focus
Dolphins’ Head Coach Brian Flores
Flores has got off to a nice start in his tenure with Miami, but will be forced to make some tough decisions in the near future (via Pro Football Network).
A season ago, the Miami Dolphins were the presumed pick to have the worst record in the league and receive the first selection in the 2020 NFL Draft to select quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Called one of the worst rosters in recent memory with no clear plan for the future, Miami was mocked for their blatant tanking and laughable approach to rebuilding their organization, and expectations were at an all-time low in South Beach.
Until they weren’t. Instead, the Dolphins finished at a respectable 5-11 record and pulled off the biggest upset of the 2019 NFL season on the road in Week 17 against the New England Patriots. Without that loss on their record, New England would have received a first-round bye and avoided the red-hot Tennessee Titans in the first round, and for all we know, Tom Brady could still be a Patriot with another ring on his resume. And who knows, maybe if Lamar Jackson and the Ravens didn’t matchup with the Titans in the divisional round, Lamar Jackson could be holding his first Lombardi Trophy instead of Patrick Mahomes. So the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs can really thank their companions down in Miami for their success after all, as the ramifications from that Week 17 battle turned out to be quite serious.
But enough of the hypothetical situations, especially as head coach Brian Flores and the rest of the Dolphins face an interesting period of time over the next couple of weeks. The Dolphins are clearly not a Super Bowl contender this season, but they have been rather competitive in each game through four weeks despite their lone win. Even last week against a NFC favorite in Seattle, Miami gave the Seahawks a tough time on both sides of the ball and forced Russell Wilson to have to take over in the 4th quarter in order to pull of the win. But even though they’ve played some teams very tough, are they good enough to challenge the Bills and Patriots at the top of the AFC East? That remains to be seen, and Miami should begin to re-assess it options all across their roster so they can figure out if they have future building blocks set in place or not.
So as Miami looks around the league and sees the immediate success of rookie quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, fans have to wonder how much longer it will be until they see Tagovailoa, the fifth pick of this year’s draft. Incumbent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played remarkable so far in the early season, but the popular journeyman is not the long-term answer at the position for the Fins. This makes Flores’ eventual decision that much harder: when should Tagovailoa play? Is he healthy enough, and if so, will he have a full playbook at his disposal? Can the Fins turn their season around with Fitzpatrick playing well, or will they make this season all about the development of young players? These are tough questions for any organization, but Miami’s head coach faces a key stretch for second-year head coaches. If he plays Tagovailoa over Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins win, he’ll be hailed as a genius. But if Tagovailoa struggles or is injured early on, Flores could all of a sudden be in a bit of trouble despite an impressive structure in place from last season.
Whatever choice he ends up making, all eyes in Miami will suddenly be on Flores if the Dolphins continue to lose at this rate. Not many expected a great year from them to begin with, but the key developmental steps must be seen all year long in order for Flores to still be considered the future at the head coaching position for the Dolphins. This is a team that should be taken one week at a time in a week-by-week league, but pay attention to the Dolphins over the next couple of weeks to see if Flores’ hand is eventually forced to put in the former National Champion signal caller from the University of Alabama.