NFL Weekly Wonder, Edition #10
By Peyton Schultze
Lamar Jackson has not been perfect in 2020, but he played like the former MVP version of himself when the Ravens needed him most in a huge win on the road against Indianapolis (via AP News).
Week 9 might have been one of the most entertaining weeks of the season, with shootouts and down-the-wire finishes all around the league. These offensive fireworks were let loose all Sunday long, and some key finishes helped bring some realization as to who figures to be playing later in the season in January. From the Raiders’ last-second defensive stand against the Chargers to the Saints’ shocking blowout of the Bucs on Sunday Night Football, Week 9 saw some big games that were headlined by some big-time players. And with this week’s Thursday Night Football game between the Colts and Titans almost ready to kick off Week 10 of the NFL season, the buildup toward another week full of thrilling matchups is quickly rising.
So what happens next in Week 10? Will Dalvin Cook and the Vikings take home another win to get back in the playoff picture in the NFC? Can the Raiders reel off another win in the AFC West against the inconsistent Broncos? Will Josh Allen and the Bills light up the scoreboard once again this week in a road trip to Arizona? And who wins a huge AFC South battle between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts on Thursday night? Let’s look ahead at a Week 10 slate full of huge matchups that could help bring even more light to the playoff pictures in both conferences.
Game-by-Game Looks
Taking back some revenge for their blowout loss in last year’s NFC Championship Game, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looked every bit like Super Bowl contenders on Thursday Night Football in San Francisco (via Yahoo! Sports).
Thursday: Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.0), 5:20 PM PT, FOX/NFL Network
One of the first major Thursday Night Football games in quite some time, Indianapolis heads south to Tennessee for a huge matchup in the AFC South. The Colts came close to a win a week ago at home against the Ravens, while the Titans kept the faith all day long on Sunday against a stingy Bears’ defense before finally coming out on top in a win. So will the Colts’ elite defense be able to contain Derrick Henry on Thursday, or will the Titans once again assert themselves as the true giant in that division? This matchup was the breakout point for the Titans in 2019 after a slow start to the year, and we expect Tennessee to once again show up in primetime in an easy win for a team that is looking to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender.
Indianapolis: 17 Tennessee: 27
Sunday: Tampa Bay (-5.5) @ Carolina, 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Has the sky officially fallen for Tom Brady and the loaded Buccaneers? Although they played poorly (which may be an understatement) last weekend against the Saints, this is still a very good team that will be in the playoff picture in the NFC this year. But if the Bucs want to gain their traction back inside the NFC South after two losses to the rival Saints, games like this are in must-win territory. Carolina is not bad and has been competitive in most of their games this season, win or loss, but they are seeing the wrong team at the wrong time this coming week. Expect an angry performance on both sides of the ball from Tampa Bay this weekend in a dominant outing.
Carolina: 14 Tampa Bay: 24
Sunday: Houston @ Cleveland (-3.0), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Houston may not be as bad as their record shows, and Cleveland may be a little worse than their record shows, but we still feel like there is a clear favorite in this battle of AFC opponents. This is due to the return of star running back Nick Chubb to an explosive Browns’ offense, who have a chance to torch a weak Houston offense with or without Baker Mayfield this weekend. Deshaun Watson will always make it at least somewhat close, but he is simply being asked to do too much right now for a team that appears to be going nowhere in the short-term. In that case, we feel like the Browns are somewhat of a lock at home this weekend after a bye week, as they’ll roll to their sixth win of the season.
Houston: 23 Cleveland: 38
Sunday: Washington @ Detroit (No Line), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
A strange game to pick with no active line out yet, Washington and Detroit enter Week 10 with the most boring matchup of the weekend. However, even though they lost last weekend to the rival Giants, quarterback Alex Smith took over for an injured Kyle Allen and nearly led the Washington offense to a comeback win. So will that momentum from last weekend translate this weekend against a Detroit team that has been nothing short of unimpressive all year long? For the sake of a dramatic moment for Smith to get his first win as a starter after returning from a devastating leg injury, we’ll give this game to a Washington team that somehow still has a chance at the NFC East crown.
Detroit: 16 Washington: 20
Sunday: Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-14.0), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Green Bay played exceptional in Week 9 against San Francisco, and there is no reason to think they won’t play just as well this weekend at home against a terrible Jacksonville roster. Aaron Rodgers is playing every bit like a MVP-type quarterback right now, and the trio of him, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams may be the best in all of football. But what will separate this team in January, and maybe even February, will be the play of their defense, which needs to get on a bit of a roll here pretty soon to help out their elite offense. Luckily, that streak will start this weekend against an inexperienced Jaguars’ offense, as the Packers will cruise to an easy win.
Jacksonville: 17 Green Bay: 42
Sunday: Philadelphia (-3.5) @ New York G., 10:00 AM PT, FOX
A tough game to predict after their competitive game a few weeks ago on Thursday Night Football, the Eagles enter this weekend’s matchup against the Giants to gain a firm control of first place in the lousy NFC East. But these Giants have refused to roll over to any team this season, and head coach Joe Judge will surely have his team playing fiery football this weekend at home against a bitter divisional rival. New York is an extremely tempting pick in this case, and Daniel Jones has a real chance of having a career moment if they can pull of the win and have a chance at first in the division, but Philly is coming off needed bye week and will pull off another win late in the 4th quarter.
New York G.: 20 Philadelphia: 23
Sunday: Los Angeles C. @ Miami (-2.5), 1:05 PM PT, CBS
The easiest pick of Week 10 in our opinion, a rattled and disappointed Chargers team heads toward the other coast for a battle down in South Beach with the red-hot Miami Dolphins. Yes, it is true that Justin Herbert is likely the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year behind an explosive Los Angeles offense, but Miami has proven to be a lethal defense over the past couple of weeks when it comes to forcing turnovers against the Rams and Cardinals. Throw in the fact that Los Angeles cannot stop anyone right now and the notion that the Dolphins are clearly the better team right now that could be poised for a playoff run very soon, and they should be able to get a win by three or more points at home this weekend.
Los Angeles C: 24 Miami: 28
After another brilliant outing versus the rival Lions, Dalvin Cook has quickly entered the MVP conversation with Minnesota riding a nice winning streak (via Minnesota Vikings).
Sunday: Buffalo @ Arizona (-1.0), 1:05 PM PT, CBS
NFC West teams tend to play in some of the best games of the season, but they also tend to enrage bettors by not covering spreads and losing to some surprise teams. This was the case with the Cardinals last weekend against the Dolphins, and it is a little bit confusing to see them favored once again against a very good Buffalo team that just destroyed a Super Bowl contender. Josh Allen gained his MVP momentum back last weekend in a huge home win against Seattle, and there is nothing that tells us he cannot have another huge game this weekend against a shaky Arizona defense. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will put up plenty of points, but we’ll take the better-coached team with the Bills by an inch in this battle in the desert.
Arizona: 37 Buffalo: 38
Sunday: Denver @ Las Vegas (-5.0), 1:05 PM PT, CBS
A tricky spread given the fact that bettors have been confused with Denver all year long, one of the game’s best rivalries enters a new chapter with quarterback Drew Lock taking on a Las Vegas team that is red-hot right now. The Raiders appear to be in a position to make a wild card spot in the AFC with a favorable upcoming schedule and good health around the board, but a large spread against a team that tends to play in close games worries us. As does the fact that quarterback Drew Lock is gaining more and more confidence every single week and the Broncos did beat this same team last year in a cold Week 17 battle, which is troubling for a Raiders’ squad that tends to play down to opponents. With that said, our upset of the week lies in the Sin City, where the Broncos will record their first ever win against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Las Vegas: 21 Denver: 27
Sunday: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7.5), 1:25 PM PT, CBS
With our without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, this is a line that we absolutely love in the case of the Bengals coming off a much-needed midseason bye week. Although their record doesn’t show it, the Bengals have been in almost every single game this season and have shown that they have a bright future ahead with quarterback Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, even though they’re undefeated and appear to be a real threat to Kansas City in the AFC, the Steelers have played tight games almost single week and narrowly escaped Dallas with a win in Week 9. It is tempting to even pick Cincinnati in an upset right now, but we’ll take Pittsburgh in a very tight and entertaining football game.
Cincinnati: 24 Pittsburgh: 27
Sunday: Seattle @ Los Angeles R. (-2.0), 1:25 PM PT, FOX
The Rams are deservedly favored this week coming off a bye week and after the Seahawks’ surprising loss last weekend, but this is one of the toughest picks of Week 10. Jared Goff and the Rams are certainly NFC contenders this season, and they match up very well on both sides of the ball against a Seattle team that they have played very well against in the past three seasons. But even though Seattle’s defense is struggling right now with poor play in the secondary, is it smart to think there would be a chance of them dropping back-to-back road games in November? We never prefer to pick against Seattle, especially in divisional games where the difference maker could be Russell Wilson, and that trend continues once again this weekend with another thrilling win for the Seahawks.
Los Angeles R.: 30 Seattle: 31
Sunday: San Francisco @ New Orleans (-9.0), 1:25 PM PT, FOX
The Saints were the breakout star of Week 9, reasserting themselves as serious Super Bowl contenders after a pure thrashing of the favored Buccaneers on the road in Tampa Bay. So is it wise to take them with a huge spread in the following week, even against a battered 49ers team that had extra time this week? You bet, as we are all over the Saints in this game. Drew Brees appears to be back to his former ways that were suddenly lost in the first quarter of the season without a healthy offense around him, and the New Orleans defense is getting better and better every week. The Niners just do not have the assets right now to keep up in this game, as the Saints roll to another blowout win.
San Francisco: 13 New Orleans: 27
Sunday: Baltimore (-7.0) @ New England, 5:20 PM PT, NBC
People love to discredit how good Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are, but keep in mind that the MVP quarterback now has the most wins in NFL history through 30 career starts. With that said, the Ravens really are not a hard team to pick when it comes to spreads; they typically beat all of the teams that they are supposed to. While they may struggle with other teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, their focus for this week lies in a New England team that simply does not have enough on either side of the ball to keep up with Baltimore. Never count out Belichick and the Patriots completely, but expect a nice night for a Ravens team looking to get on a bit of a run.
New England: 17 Baltimore: 31
Monday: Minnesota (-3.0) @ Chicago, 5:15 PM PT, ESPN
Minnesota was all but written out of the playoff picture just a few weeks ago, but a weak upcoming schedule and some meaningful games against divisional rivals have a chance to seriously turn around their season. So how can they get a win this week on the road in Chicago under the bright lights of huge matchup on Monday Night Football? It’s simple: give the ball to Dalvin Cook. The magnificent running back is playing like one of the best players in all of football right now, and fantasy owners would be wise to ride his momentum for as long as they can. The Bears are still not a bad team and could contend for a playoff spot, but they’re starting to slow down quite a bit after a red-hot start and are not in a good position to slow down a flaming Vikings’ offense.
Chicago: 20 Minnesota: 24
Daily Fantasy Targets
Los Angeles reciever Cooper Kupp could be due for a big game on Sunday against a very poor Seattle secondary (via USA Today).
Quarterbacks: Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams) and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
We’ve been picking on quarterbacks with a matchup against Seattle all year long, and that trend will surely continue this weekend with Jared Goff and the Rams facing off against the rival Seahawks. Goff has been solid in 2020, certainly taking a step forward from last season and appearing to be much more comfortable behind an improved offensive line. Plus, with the Rams coming off a needed bye week that gives head coach Sean McVay two weeks to prepare for the Seahawks, we expect a ton of offensive firepower this weekend in the battle of NFC West contenders. Goff should have a great game on Sunday with shots down the field in a game where Los Angeles could have their signature moment of the season. Meanwhile, last year’s league MVP has been struggling a bit all year long, but found some positive momentum in a timely second half against the Colts (who said he couldn’t play from behind late in games?). And with this week’s matchup against a New England defense that he torched last season and then allowed Joe Flacco to go off in Week 9, we love Lamar Jackson’s chances of having a big game in primetime on Sunday. Whether it is with his arm or with his legs should not matter too much, as Jackson will be the lead catalyst of a strong game for the Ravens’ offense on Sunday.
Running Backs: Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns) and Antonio Gibson (Washington Football Team)
The return of one of the game’s best workhorse running backs is sure to bring a jolt to the Browns’ offense, especially in a matchup against a bad Houston defense. Running back Nick Chubb should see around 15 or so touches in his return to the field on Sunday and split carries with fellow back Kareem Hunt, but Chubb should receive the bulk of carries in the red zone where Houston has given up plenty of easy points this season. This could be a great sign for Browns’ fans and fantasy owners alike on Sunday, who will rejoice in Chubb's return to the starting lineup for one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Meanwhile, although he did not practice on Wednesday, running back Antonio Gibson has a chance at being a serious focal point for the Washington offense on Sunday against Detroit. Gibson has been on-and-off for most of the season, but he has lit up some of the game’s weakest run defenses such as Arizona and Dallas. This happens to be the exact case for Washington on Sunday in their bout with the Lions, where Gibson should see plenty of key touches if he plays with Alex Smith making his first official start since his devastating leg injury several years ago.
Wide Receivers: Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams) and Jerry Jeudy (Denver Broncos)
Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp form one of the game’s best quarterback and reciever combos in all of football, and they have a chance to put up huge numbers in the box score this weekend. Kupp has long been a favored target from Goff, especially as seen in the Rams’ last outing against the Dolphins, and a matchup with a Seattle secondary that can’t stop anyone right now might be what the LA offense needs. Kupp should see plenty of volume this weekend in a huge afternoon for the slot wide receiver, which could see multiple scores. Meanwhile, Denver’s Jerry Jeudy was the standout weapon for the Broncos in Week 9 despite a loss on the road to Atlanta. Jeudy and quarterback Drew Lock finally established a potentially lethal connection last weekend that saw the rookie wideout score a touchdown on a beautiful curl route, and he once again has a chance at a big game against a poor Las Vegas defense. The Broncos will need to start much quicker than they have over the past two weeks, and they would be wise to get the rookie from Alabama involved early and often after his breakout performance last weekend.
Tight Ends: TJ Hockenson (Detroit Lions) and Robert Tonyan (Green Bay Packers)
Tight end has been a shallow position for most of the 2020 season, but Lions’ tight end TJ Hockenson has seen increased volume as the season has moved along. The young tight end has flashed a lot of big-play potential with some key touchdown catches from Matthew Stafford this year, and a nice matchup with a Washington defense that has struggled against opposing tight ends could be an interesting route to take your fantasy lineup this weekend. Meanwhile, although he has tailed off a bit in recent weeks due to his touchdown reliance, Packers’ tight end Robert Tonyan could have his best game in weeks with a matchup against a terrible Jaguars’ secondary. Jacksonville can’t really stop anyone through the air right now, and it is easy to envision a scenario where Aaron Rodgers exploits their woes in the secondary by finding his security blanket tight end in the endzone on multiple occasions. Tight end is always a roll of the dice in 2020, but look for Tonyan to have a big game with a favorable matchup ahead.
Defenses: Tampa Bay (vs Carolina) and Tennessee (vs Indianapolis)
The Buccaneers were not themselves on either side of ball in Week 9, but they have a chance at some type of redemption with a divisional matchup with the Panthers this weekend. Tampa was carved up by Drew Brees and the Saints’ short passing attack on Sunday, but they will have the benefit of not facing off against an injured Christian McCaffrey this weekend. Tampa Bay is still the same defense that rattled Aaron Rodgers and the elite Packers’ offense earlier in the year, and we expect a major rebound performance this weekend on the road. However, one of the quieter defenses in all of football this year has been the Tennessee Titans, who have not allowed more than 20 points in two straight weeks. With the Titans starting to find their groove on defense, and with the Colts’ offense still proving to be turnover-prone every single week, we sense a good night for the Titans on Thursday if they can get any sort of pass rush on Philip Rivers in the pocket. Take the Titans in the picks and in fantasy this week, as we expect a huge night from one of the best teams in all of football.
Fanatical Focus
The MVP Cases for Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook
Are Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook really MVP candidates this season? (via KTVE and KSTP TV)
Can anyone other than a quarterback really win MVP? It’s the age-old question that remains one of the hottest topics in the sport on a yearly basis. But with the way that Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook are playing right now, is everyone so sure that the race for the most valuable player in the NFL is down to Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers? We take a look at two special years for two generational-type running backs.
Kamara: As difficult to tackle as any single player in all of football, Alvin Kamara has once again been the most valuable player for the first-place New Orleans Saints in the 2020 season. With wide receiver counterpart Michael Thomas injured for most of the season and with quarterback Drew Brees truly struggling earlier in the year, Kamara was often forced to carry the load for New Orleans on offense with so much volume in his direction. But in comparison to other Hall of Fame greats at the running back position like Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Barry Sanders, Kamara is beginning to redefine what a running back does in the present-day. Kamara’s 471 rushing yards appear to be good, but not great, on paper, but his receiving stats tell a much different story. The back’s 60 catches for 565 receiving yards to go along with eight total touchdowns truly pop off the page for a running back of his stature, who just signed a massive deal to remain with the Saints for the long-term. Many could have assumed a step backward for the Pro Bowl offensive weapon after signing that deal, but all Kamara has done is elevate his game even further with another dominant showing in the 2020 season to further solidify his pace for Canton, Ohio. The Saints’ running back is a do-it-all contributor, one of the best offensive players in the league, and the best player on one of the NFC’s best teams, so why wouldn’t he gain some respect in the tight MVP race this season?
Cook: The Vikings’ young running back has been an elite player at the position for a couple of years now, but injury woes and an inconsistent offensive scheme have tarnished some otherwise bloated statlines. But recent weeks have seen the star running back explode on the spot and get the Vikings’ season back on track after a poor start, and there is little doubt that he is currently the best pure running back in football right now. After all, 369 total rushing yards and six total touchdowns over the past two games is simply too hard to ignore right now, and the Vikings’ sudden chances of getting back into the playoff picture have hinted at an MVP case for the 2020 season. Cook leads the NFL right now with 858 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns despite missing a game, and the star back has helped take the pressure off of Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ passing attack that has not been spectacular by any means this season. So if Cook can continue this record-breaking pace, getting somewhere around 1,500 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season, why wouldn’t he have a chase at the most valuable player in the league? Minnesota would surely need to get into the playoffs as a wild card in the competitive NFC, but they appear to have at least a solid chance of doing so if they can win the games they are supposed to with a mediocre incoming schedule. Can Cook take the prior reigns from Adrian Peterson and become the first non-quarterback to win the award since AP did with the Vikings back in 2012? We like his chances right now, and he appears to have a pressing case at the illustrious award in 2020.