By Peyton Schultze

The Seahawks’ big win on Thursday over the Cardinals threw them right back into the middle of the Super Bowl conversation (via Field Gulls).

After eleven weeks of wild, back-and-forth action around the league, Thanksgiving football has finally arrived. This insane season has not come without great difficulty on and off-the-field for almost every organization, but recent weeks like Week 11 have truly made this year one for the ages. From a great battle on Sunday Night Football between the Chiefs and Raiders to the Colts’ overtime win at home against the Packers, Week 11 was a memorable time for football fans around the country. And with a trifecta of Thanksgiving games headlining this week’s action right around the corner, the intensity of late-season football is only getting more and more urgent with each coming week.

So what happens next in Week 12? Will the Buccaneers bounce back from last week’s disappointment with a win over the defending champions? Can Taysom Hill and the Saints ride last week’s momentum to a win in Denver? Will the Packers keep a firm grip on the NFC North win a win over the rival Bears? And who wins the big Thanksgiving night game between two storied franchises in the Ravens and Steelers? Let’s look ahead at an awesome Week 12 slate full of games that are sure to make the holiday weekend one to remember.

Game-by-Game Looks

Philip Rivers was hyped for a big win on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers (via USA Today).

Thursday: Houston (-3.0) @ Detroit, 9:30 AM PT, CBS

The Texans are one of the strangest teams to predict in all of football this year, but their one consistency is the magic from quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson is one of the premier players in all of football, and his grasp of the Texans’ offense appears as clear as ever right now. Meanwhile, Detroit is still fighting for fringe hopes of a playoff spot this season, but have struggled to stop anybody on defense this season. That’s the huge difference maker on Thanksgiving’s first game of the day, as Watson should light up the scoreboard in a nice win for Houston.

Detroit: 21 Houston: 28

Thursday: Washington @ Dallas (-3.0), 1:30 PM PT, FOX

What turns out to be a huge battle in the NFC East takes over the second slot on Thanksgiving, as Washington heads to Dallas for a highly-anticipated game. Alex Smith and the Washington Football Team has actually played fairly well on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, but the Cowboys are coming off a huge, and potentially season-saving, win last weekend against the Vikings. So who owns the edge on Thursday? Dallas has been so messy this season that this seems like another easy hiccup for them, as head coach Ron Rivera will have his team fired up for this huge holiday bout. Take Washington in our upset of the week, as they take a temporary lead in the NFC East for now.

Dallas: 24 Washington: 28

Sunday: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-4.0), TBD, TBD

Arguably the game of the week in the NFL, the undefeated Steelers host the Ravens on (Thanksgiving night, Sunday afternoon?) in a battle of historic rivals. The Ravens are in must-win territory to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they will be without several key starters this week who tested positive for COVID-19. This is especially troubling considering the Ravens’ lack of success on offense recently, which could lead to another big night from the Steelers. It’s tempting to take Baltimore to finally break through for their biggest win of the year, but the Steelers continue to roll through every team in their path on their way to the AFC’s top seed.

Baltimore: 23 Pittsburgh: 28

Sunday: Las Vegas (-3.0) @ Atlanta, 10:00 AM PT, CBS

Is there such a thing as a good loss? That’s always a tough question to ask, but the Raiders played very close football with the defending champs last weekend in Las Vegas, which could be an encouraging sign for their playoff hopes. And in contrary to other Raider teams of the past few decades, the 2020 Raiders have been surprisingly solid as favorites and do not really have a tendency that has been shown to play down to opponents. That’s a huge factor against a Falcons’ team that can always sneak up on people, and the spread here seems like an easy gift for Las Vegas bettors.

Atlanta: 27 Las Vegas: 38

Sunday: Los Angeles C. @ Buffalo (-6.0), 10:00 AM PT, CBS

Buffalo coming off a bye against a Chargers’ team that struggles against the spread every single week? This is an easy one, as Josh Allen and the Bills should put up plenty of points on Sunday against a Chargers’ defense allowing way too many points this year considering their defensive talent. Justin Herbert and the Bolts’ offense will put up their fair share of points too, but the Bills will once again prove to be one of the AFC’s best teams with another key conference win on Sunday.

Los Angeles C.: 21 Buffalo: 31

Sunday: New York G. (-6.0) @ Cincinnati, 10:00 AM PT, FOX

Yes, Joe Burrow is injured and out for this game, and yes, the Giants have been a tough team to predict all season long. But this might be one of the toughest games of the week to predict considering neither of these teams are that good, which could be an encouraging sign for Bengals’ bettors. We expect the spread to rise even more as kickoff nears, so look at Cincinnati to at least cover on Sunday against a young, but improving Giants’ team that doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to make this game a blowout.

Cincinnati: 20 New York G.: 21

Sunday: Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-3.5), 10:00 AM PT, CBS

Maybe all it took was a miracle win. Despite playing poorly for their past three games, the Titans pulled off a huge win on Sunday on the road in Baltimore behind huge performances in the 4th quarter and overtime from running back Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, even though they have reeled two straight wins behind improved quarterback play for Philip Rivers, the Colts keep walking the line in almost every game and still appear unimpressive at best on offense. Yet the Colts’ defense is the difference maker that gives them a slight edge in this battle, which could down to the wire again. The number is tough here with that added half-point, but look for Indy to pull out another huge AFC South win.

Tennessee: 20 Indianapolis: 23

Sunday: Cleveland (-6.5) @ Jacksonville, 10:00 AM PT, CBS

A dynamic Cleveland offense facing off against a defense that can’t stop anyone this year? The 6.5 point spread feels like a favor in this spot, as the Browns are once again a complete mismatch on both sides of the field for the Jaguars. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have gigantic games on the ground against one of the league’s worst run defenses, and the Browns will continue to roll closer and closer to a wild card spot in the extremely competitive AFC.

Jacksonville: 13 Cleveland: 31

Cooper Kupp feasted on the Buccaneers’ defense in Week 11, helping the Rams get a key win to take control of the NFC West (via NFL.com).

Sunday: Carolina @ Minnesota (-4.5), 10:00 AM PT, FOX

Carolina’s PJ Walker was a fascinating story to follow in Week 11, but it is hard to imagine back-to-back performances of that nature if he has to once again fill in for Teddy Bridgewater. However, Minnesota fell to Dallas last weekend in very disappointing fashion, and now the future status of head coach Mike Zimmer is once again in question if he loses to Carolina this weekend. The Vikings should be able to pull out a win on the back of running back Dalvin Cook, but don’t be shocked with a backdoor cover of sorts with a tricky spread.

Carolina: 20 Minnesota: 23

Sunday: Arizona (-2.0) @ New England, 10:00 AM PT, FOX

There’s always the fearsome notion that Bill Belichick can rattle some of the league’s best young quarterbacks on the road in New England, but the Cardinals’ needed extra time is a huge factor in this game. The Patriots struggled significantly against the mobility of Deshaun Watson last week, and it does not appear like it will get any easier against Kyler Murray and Arizona’s explosive offensive attack. Expect Cam Newton and the Patriots to put up a fight, but take the Cardinals in the end.

New England: 24 Arizona: 27

Sunday: Miami (-7.0) @ New York J., 10:00 AM PT, CBS

Miami played very poorly last week on the road in Denver, but don’t slip up with this pick and have any doubt about the Dolphins. The Jets have played much better as of late, but they’re still winless and have yet to play even reasonably well against a team over .500. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense is still firing away and should cause chaos on Sunday against a poor New York offense, which should make this game ugly from the first quarter on. The Dolphins will pull off a nice divisional win on Sunday to keep the Jets winless for another week as they inch closer to the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft.

New York J: 10 Miami: 27

Sunday: San Francisco @ Los Angeles R. (-7.0), 1:05 PM PT, FOX

The Rams finally took control of first place in the NFC West after a huge road win on Monday night against the Bucs, but they need another big win back home in LA against a beat-up Niners’ squad. San Francisco beat this same Rams’ team several weeks ago while they were more healthy, but familiarity and time to prepare from a bye week should keep this game close for Kyle Shanahan and Co. The Rams should win, but the 49ers have too much pride and experience on both sides of the ball to get rolled on Sunday.

San Francisco: 23 Los Angeles R.: 24

Sunday: New Orleans (-5.5) @ Denver, 1:05 PM PT, FOX

The Taysom Hill project finally worked in Week 11, as the Saints overcame some serious doubters to pull off a very nice win against the rival Falcons. New Orleans has another big test this weekend on the road in the Mile High City against an inconsistent Broncos team, which should be a pretty low-scoring affair considering how well Denver’s defense has played. The Saints have too much firepower on both sides of the ball for them to lose in this one, but Denver has a favorable spread and enough playmakers on defense to keep this game tight all afternoon long.

Denver: 17 New Orleans: 20

Sunday: Kansas City (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay, 1:25 PM PT, CBS

Can Tampa Bay beat any great team? That remains a serious question for Tom Brady and the Bucs, and we are about to find out the real answer to that against the defending Super Bowl champions. Whereas Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have found many different ways to win this season, the Buccaneers are truly struggling to find a true offensive identity with inefficiency all around their offense. Will that change this weekend? No way, as we expect the Chiefs to win big on Sunday afternoon.

Tampa Bay: 20 Kansas City: 35

Sunday: Chicago @ Green Bay (-8.5), 5:20 PM PT, NBC

The Bears have massive question marks across the board on offense despite coming off a bye, which appears to make this game somewhat of a mismatch against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. However, Green Bay has struggled against tough and physical defenses all year, and the Bears’ defense may be able to keep this game close with extra time from their bye week. The Packers should be able to win in the end to get them closer to a NFC North crown, but then expect at least somewhat of a fight from the Bears.

Chicago: 17 Green Bay: 24

Monday: Seattle (-5.5) @ Philadelphia, 5:15 PM PT, ESPN

Philadelphia may be the most disappointing team in all of football this year, as highlighted in another bad loss last week to the Eagles. So even at home against a defense that has struggled to stop anybody, can the Eagles keep it close? It seems very unlikely, especially in primetime against Russell Wilson and a Seahawks offense that re-discovered their identity last week against the Cardinals. Seattle is in a good position to win here against one of their playoff foes from last year, so take them comfortably with less than a touchdown on the board as the spread.

Philadelphia: 24 Seattle: 30

Daily Fantasy Targets

Derek Carr was brilliant for the Raiders last week, and has a chance for an even bigger outing this week against the Falcons (via YardBarker).

Quarterbacks: Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) and Alex Smith (Washington Football Team)

Derek Carr looked in-control of the Raiders’ offense a week ago in primetime versus the Chiefs, which finally gave him some national recognition in what has been a MVP-type season for many players. Carr’s name might not always jump off the page statistically, but the Raiders have an ideal matchup this weekend against a poor Atlanta defense that just allowed Taysom Hill to have a monster performance in Week 11. Carr should be able to torch the Falcons’ secondary, and a pairing of Carr with tight end Darren Waller would not be a bad idea by any means. Meanwhile, on Thanksgiving Day, quarterback Alex Smith will be re-introduced to the primetime stage after recovery from a devastating leg injury that nearly ended his career. Smith has been solid as a starter in Washington this season, but he truly has a shot at a big game on Thursday against Dallas’ shaky defense. Washington may have an early emphasis on their run game with Antonio Gibson early in this matchup, but if Dallas can put up some points on offense, look for Smith to have a huge second half through the air.

Running Backs: Todd Gurley II (Atlanta Falcons) and D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions)

Although there are many other stars with a chance to have a decent game against an inconsistent but hard-working Raiders’ defense, running back Todd Gurley could have a huge outing in wake of the Chiefs’ performance a week ago. Gurley has been pretty solid for the Falcons in 2020 with his nose for the endzone, and he still appears to be getting better and better with every week that he becomes more familiar with the Falcons’ offense. Gurley will be the focal point for Atlanta on Sunday, which makes him a great play on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, running back D’Andre Swift could have a gigantic outing in the first game of this year’s Thanksgiving slate. The Texans’ defense has not been good whatsoever against the run this year, whereas Swift has seen increased volume with every week this season. He’s not the biggest name available this weekend, but Swift could find the endzone on multiple occasions and have a career game on Thursday.

Wide Receivers: Will Fuller V (Houston Texans) and Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings)

The Texans’ offense has not been very good this season in wake of the DeAndre Hopkins trade to Arizona, but fellow wide receiver Will Fuller has had a career season as Houston’s top target on offense. Fuller’s ability to stretch the field has been on display all year long, and now that he is healthy and staying in the lineup for the majority of the season, Fuller has blossomed with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Lions allow a lot of yardage through the air as well, so look for Fuller to have a deep score or two in a key win for Houston on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, wide reciever Justin Jefferson is red-hot and quickly becoming one of the best wideouts in all of football. With elite route running and a quick step off the line of scrimmage, Jefferson has been awesome for quarterback Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ passing game. And with fellow weapon Adam Thielen likely out for Sunday’s matchup, Jefferson could see even more targets and find himself in the endzone on multiple occasions.

Tight Ends: Darren Waller (Las Vegas Raiders) and Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins)

As mentioned earlier, Darren Waller could be a great pair with Derek Carr this weekend for your fantasy lineup against a weak Atlanta defense. The Raiders’ offense now has a clear identity with a strong run game to compliment a nice play-action passing game, and their progression over the course of 2020 has been entertaining to watch with their best players, like Waller, turning into stars. Waller is the Raiders’ go-to option in the passing game, especially on third-down and in the red zone, and he should see plenty of volume in his direction once again with his surprising speed and steady hands as Carr’s security blanket. Down in Miami, tight end Mike Gesicki also has an opportunity to torch a Jets’ defense that allowed a big outing from tight end Hunter Henry a week ago. Gesicki has been inconsistent as a pass catcher in 2020, but the Jets allow so many big plays to their tight ends that he enters the conversation as a starting option this week. Look out for big numbers for the Dolphins’ offense on Sunday, which could see Gesicki targeted in the endzone on multiple occasions.

Defenses: Green Bay (vs Chicago) and Denver (vs New Orleans)

Any team facing the Bears right now is somewhat of a must start on offense, especially with quarterback Nick Foles likely sidelined for Sunday night’s matchup with the Packers. Green Bay has been off and on on defense in 2020, but they have had some truly bright spots featuring a solid secondary and strong pass rush with the duo of Smiths on each edge. The Packers are in must-start territory this weekend against a bad Bears’ offense that can’t score against any defense right now. Meanwhile, one of the league’s best defenses in Denver appears to be somewhat of a bargain for their price on FanDuel and DraftKings. Denver’s defense has been very solid against the pass and run this year, and they’re extremely undervalued against an offense that still doesn’t have Drew Brees in the lineup. New Orleans’ offense was great last week against a terrible Atlanta defense, but producing those same type of numbers with Taysom Hill in back-to-back weeks seems improbable at best in the tough conditions of the Mile High City.

Fanatical Focus

Chiefs’ Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill

Kansas City wide reciever Tyreek Hill has continued to put up ridiculous numbers for the defending champs once again in 2020 (via Twitter).

What defines a great wide receiver? Is it his shifty footwork off the line of scrimmage that causes plenty of separation? Is it his game-changing speed that has defensive backs left in the dust? Is it his ability to step up in the clutch for his quarterback? Or is it his precise route running that creates plenty of room for yards after the catch?

For Chiefs’ wide receiver Tyreek Hill, maybe it is all of the above. Sure, Hill is known for his blazing speed that is one of the most unique traits at the position in the history of the NFL, but the shifty offensive weapon has become much more than a gadget player over the course of his career. In an offense created by head coach Andy Reid and featuring the game’s best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and the game’s best tight end in Travis Kelce, Hill often stands out as the most explosive player who can single-handedly change the course of a game. Look at last week’s Sunday Night Football matchup against the fiery Las Vegas Raiders, for example. Hill was dynamic from the get-go, helping stretch the Chiefs’ offense by reeling in 11 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown in a decisive win in the AFC West. Hill certainly can thank the right arm of Patrick Mahomes for a large portion of his production, but how much credit goes toward the reciever that entered the league as someone with little experience at the position and quickly turned into one of the best overall players in the sport?

Not only that, but does Hill actually rank as the game’s best wide reciever? Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Devante Adams, Michael Thomas, and Keenan Allen would likely want a word, but Hill is surely on a Hall of Fame pace right now with his unique skillset that makes him one of the most uncoverable players in the history of the sport. Whether it is his shocking leaping ability, quick change of direction, or his trademark speed that burns defensive backs every single week, Hill makes a strong argument for the game’s best. And after all, who was the one player on the receiving end of last year’s Super Bowl in the play that shifted the course of the game and ultimately helped lead Kansas City to a championship? That would be Hill, who found room over the top on a 3rd and 15 late in the 4th quarter with the Chiefs down by ten to change the course of the team’s history.

With the Chiefs in a position to still take home the top seed in the AFC over the Steelers, every game from now until the end of the regular season has some extra meaning. This is especially the case for this weekend when Kansas City prepares for a duel with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which has the makings of an extremely entertaining game. Yet after the Buccaneers’ defense allowed the Rams to torch their secondary a week ago, look for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense to target the Bucs’ defensive backs once again and turn toward Hill once again for a plethora of big plays this Sunday. The Chiefs may possess some of the best players in the league on offense, but it is fair to wonder just how great they would be if you took one of their three most dynamic players out of the picture. Hill happens to fit in this conversation, and his role as the Chiefs’ big play threat on a weekly basis makes them a truly special team that isn’t going anywhere but up in the near future.

NFL Weekly Wonder, Thanksgiving, Edition #12