NFL Weekly Wonder, Edition #14

By Peyton Schultze

Despite an off-night for the rest of the offense, Travis Kelce was the star of the night for Kansas City in a divisional win over Denver (via USA Today).

What a week in the NFL!

The season has had some serious highs and curious lows in the 2020 season, but Week 13 was filled with plenty of fun and excitement with so many great games across the board. From the Raiders’ last-second Hail Mary to keep the Jets winless to the Packers’ stomping of the Eagles to force Jalen Hurts into the game, the week’s slate started to sharpen the playoff picture even more in both ultra-competitive conferences.

So what happens next in Week 14? Will the Dolphins finally make their mark and beat the Chiefs down in Miami? Will quarterback Philip Rivers be able to taunt his former rival once again this weekend in Las Vegas? Will the Bills continue their hot streak of winning against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football in a huge primetime matchup? And who wins the Monday Night matchup in the AFC North between the Browns and Ravens? Let’s look ahead at what should be another thrilling week in the NFL as we get closer and closer to the Christmas season with the playoffs right around the corner.

Game-by-Game Looks

It was not perfect by any means last week, but the Dolphins were able to keep their footing in the AFC playoff picture with a win over the Bengals (via Palm Beach Post).

Thursday: New England @ Los Angeles R. (-5.0), 5:20 PM PT, FOX/NFL Network

Right away, we were shocked to see this large of a spread considering both of these teams enter a huge game with playoff implications on the line. The Rams now lead the NFC West after their win over the Cardinals last week, but their inconsistencies on offense are a cause for concern whenever Jared Goff and the Rams face off against an experienced and capable defense. That’s the exact case with New England’s defense, who once again have all the tools for another successful result by the week’s end. This game should be low-scoring and a battle in the trenches all night long, but we’ll give a slight edge to the home team in what should be a great game to kick off Week 14.

New England: 17 Los Angeles R.: 20

Sunday: Kansas City (-7.0) @ Miami, 10:00 AM PT, CBS

Is Kansas City’s recent struggle to close out games a serious cause for concern? Maybe, or maybe not, but the Chiefs head down to Miami for a big-time matchup with the playoff hungry Dolphins. Miami and KC were both not great last week, likely looking ahead to this week’s huge game a little bit, but both teams enter this game healthy and prepared for a game with some serious playoff implications. Patrick Mahomes is the likely MVP favorite and the Chiefs’ offense can roll at any time, but the Dolphins have some tools that can give the Chiefs some issues. If Miami can boost a strong run game while taking care of the ball on offense, the Fins have enough assets in the secondary and on their defensive line to contain the Chiefs’ stars and pull out a win. And in our biggest upset of the week, Miami will do just that in one of their biggest regular season wins in recent history.

Kansas City: 27 Miami: 31

Sunday: Houston (-1.5) @ Chicago, 10:00 AM PT, CBS

The Bears were so close to a win after so many consecutive weeks of poor offensive football, but a poor 4th quarter once again kept Chicago from adding a win to their record and giving them a shot at the playoffs in the wide-open NFC. The Texans also found themselves in a similar position, especially in a shaky 4th quarter where Houston had several chances at a win with Indianapolis’ backs against the wall. This game is a bit tough to figure out, but the Bears’ defense may finally be hitting a breaking point after allowing a huge game from Matthew Stafford last week. Deshaun Watson may be able to put up some similar numbers, and we’ll take Houston in a comfortable road win.

Chicago: 23 Houston: 28

Sunday: Denver @ Carolina (-4.0), 10:00 AM PT, CBS

Is the return of Christian McCaffrey enough to give Carolina the edge at home against a Denver team that competed with the Chiefs last weekend? It’s tough to say, but the Panthers will be the beneficiaries of a late-season bye week that will have them geared up for this weekend’s battle with one of the league’s best overall players back in the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Drew Lock and the Broncos are reeling right now, and they need some immediate answers if they want to have some faith in the coming years with Lock under center. Both of these factors add up to a questionable result for the Broncos, who will start early but fold late in the second half to a healthier and more talented Carolina squad.

Denver: 20 Carolina: 27

Sunday: Tennessee (-7.5) @ Jacksonville, 10:00 AM PT, CBS

A game that has a spread with complete fool’s gold coming off a close loss for the Jaguars and a shocking result for the Titans, the battle of AFC South rivals heads toward Jacksonville in a needed game for the Titans. But as long as Tennessee starts off much better by turning around and handing the ball off to Derrick Henry early and often, this game will get out of hand quickly. The Titans will need Ryan Tannehill and the passing game to step up at some point this season if they want to make the Super Bowl, but the Titans’ identity from week-to-week relies on the legs of Henry. And with the Jaguars lacking any playmakers that can keep this game close outside of James Robinson, expect a blowout win from the Titans after last week’s clunker.

Jacksonville: 13 Tennessee: 30

Sunday: Dallas (-3.5) @ Cincinnati, 10:00 AM PT, FOX

Even though the box score didn’t show it and the result was not ideal, the Bengals competed all day long with the Dolphins in Week 13. Maybe they competed a bit too much with several altercations with Miami players, but Cincinnati appears to at least not given up on their season despite the loss of quarterback Joe Burrow. This is contrary to almost everything the Cowboys have shown all year, as Dallas appears to be one week closer to the end of the season with each passing game. This makes us lean toward Cincinnati at home, despite the talent difference, in what could be a prideful win for a team that has been decimated by injuries in the past month.

Dallas: 16 Cincinnati: 23

Sunday: Arizona (-2.0) @ New York G., 10:00 AM PT, FOX

Are the New York Giants for real? It appears so after their biggest win of the season on the road in Seattle, which caught everyone’s attention throughout the league. Head coach Joe Judge deserves a lot of credit for guiding this team into the NFC’s playoff picture, and the Giants are giving themselves a chance every week by taking care of the ball despite who is under center. But Arizona is due for a big-time win if Kyler Murray is healthy after an elongated slump, which could see the Cardinals enter Saturday with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder. New York has a great chance to win if they can keep this game low-coring, but look for Murray to get Arizona back on track in a much-needed win to stop the bleeding in the extremely crowded NFC West.

New York G.: 17 Arizona: 24

Sunday: Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-6.5), 10:00 AM PT, FOX

Will Minnesota be able to run the ball with Dalvin Cook against the best run defense in the league by far? That’s the key matchup that will decide this huge game in the NFC, especially with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers coming off a much-needed bye week. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has played fairly well recently with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen at his disposal, and he’ll have a lot of chances to air it out again this weekend against Tampa’s weak secondary. Meanwhile, Head coach Bruce Arians has been the recent recipient of criticism in the national media with the Bucs’ struggles, but with time to prepare for this one, Tampa will be ready. The extra half point is a real cause for concern in a backdoor cover, but take the Bucs with some confidence on Sunday afternoon.

Minnesota: 23 Tampa Bay: 33

Baker Mayfield had a career game on Sunday against the Titans, with four first half touchdowns and plenty of highlight plays in a key win (via The Ringer).

Sunday: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Las Vegas 1:05 PM PT, CBS

Are the Colts really capable of being a Super Bowl contender? That appears to be a puzzling question to ask from week-to-week, but Philip Rivers and Indianapolis keep answering it with key wins against formidable opponents. Indy gets another test this week on the road against the Raiders, who escaped last weekend in miraculous fashion from the still-winless Jets in one of the most exciting finishes of the season. But even though the Raiders played poorly last week, they still have a chance to make a mark from week-to-week against any team in the league. But keep one thing in mind before making this pick: Philip Rivers is awfully familiar with this team, and they’re awfully familiar with him. It is an interesting story to follow on Sunday, where we’ll give a slight edge to the Colts due to their ability to create turnovers on defense.

Las Vegas: 20 Indianapolis: 23

Sunday: New York J. @ Seattle (-13.0), 1:05 PM PT, CBS

The Jets are being beaten down for blowing a late lead to the Raiders last week to stay winless on a Hail Mary from Derek Carr to Henry Ruggs, but they made news in immediately firing defensive coordinator Gregg Williams on Monday morning. Yet Seattle had issues of their own in Week 13, playing poorly on offense with only a mere 12 points against the New York Giants’ underrated defense. What this says about both teams is clear: the Jets are not really playing to win and Seattle should bounce back with some authority. The spread is a little high considering the Jets have competed with large spreads recently, but expect Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to perform at a much higher level this week.

New York J.: 20 Seattle: 35

Sunday: Green Bay (-8.0) @ Detroit, 1:25 PM PT, FOX

This is a bit of a tricky game with an eight point spread and Green Bay’s tendency to start slow versus the Lions in recent years, but the Packers are a true contender with the makings of a potential winner. Aaron Rodgers is certainly making his own case as the MVP of the league right now alongside Patrick Mahomes, and Green Bay’s defense is also starting to play better and better with each week. And while the Lions still have a chance of making the playoffs at 5-7, Matthew Stafford and the rest of this Detroit squad is treading water from week-to-week and will struggle against good teams. The Packers are at least ten points better than this team on paper, and we’ll roll with a large spread in favor of the Packers despite being on the road for this divisional matchup.

Detroit: 21 Green Bay: 33

Sunday: Atlanta (-2.5) @ Los Angeles C., 1:25 PM PT, FOX

The Chargers were flat out embarrassed last week, plain and simple, but quarterback Justin Herbert can bounce back this week at home against an Atlanta team that can’t find any sort of consistency. The Falcons have plenty of good players on their roster, but have not been able to string together a few games in a row to inspire their fanbase that their current team is any sort of playoff team in the near future. This points to somewhat of a let-up performance now that Atlanta is all but out of the playoff picture in the NFC, which could lead to a revenge performance from the Chargers. Expect big games from Herbert and Matt Ryan through the air, but for the rookie gunslinger to gain the edge at the end of the day by carving up the Falcons’ defense in a win for LA.

Atlanta: 30 Los Angeles C.: 34

Sunday: New Orleans (-7.0) @ Philadelphia, 1:25 PM PT, FOX

Drew Brees or Taysom Hill, does it matter with how well the Saints are playing right now? New Orleans is firing on both sides of the ball, and may be the most complete team in all of football right now with how many elite playmakers they boast. The complete opposite of that is their opponent for this week, as the Eagles have been a complete disappointment all season long. After quarterback Carson Wentz was benched last weekend against the Packers in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts, the Eagles look like they will once again turn to the former Oklahoma signal caller again to boost this team. But will that get them anywhere at all against a defense this shutting down opponents? Likely not, as the Saints keep marching toward the top seed in the NFC.

Philadelphia: 16 New Orleans: 23

Sunday: Washington @ San Francisco (-3.5), 1:25 PM PT, FOX

Two teams that played last week on Monday night and who have some similar playing styles, Washington heads to California with a key matchup with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Washington’s defense is officially legit after shutting down the Steelers last week, and their offense has been complimentary enough in taking care of the ball and converting on third-downs. But the 49ers are getting healthier and healthier, and it is a miracle that they still have faint hopes of the playoffs after so many back-breaking injuries. Yet Washington is the red-hot team right now and the spread may be a little too big right now, so give the edge to a feisty Washington group keeping pace with the Giants in a complicated NFC East race that could come down to the last three weeks of the season.

San Francisco: 19 Washington: 20

Sunday: Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (-2.5), 5:20 PM PT, NBC

We are a lot higher on the Steelers as a Super Bowl contender than others, but this matchup against the Bills may be a tough challenge for them to keep their undefeated record alive. Pittsburgh may have looked ahead a little bit toward this matchup last week against Washington, where the Steelers’ offense was plagued with bad drops and communication issues. Meanwhile, Buffalo hosts their biggest primetime football game in years, and Josh Allen will have a chance to introduce himself to a national audience on Sunday Night Football. Always take the home team hosting their biggest game in years like this, where Pittsburgh’s status as the favorite is only in part because of their better record.

Pittsburgh: 24 Buffalo: 27

Monday: Baltimore @ Cleveland (Pick), 5:15 PM PT, ESPN

The game of the week is also the final matchup of the week in a Monday night mega-matchup between two AFC North rivals. The Browns were the biggest story of Week 13 after Baker Mayfield’s dominant performance against the Titans, but the Ravens are desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive on Monday with a chance to rise in the playoff picture standings. But what is the key to this game? Lamar Jackson’s passing ability through the air if the Ravens’ beaten-up offensive line can give him some time to throw, especially against a shaky Cleveland secondary that allows a lot of passing yards through the air. The stars will all be out for this game, especially Jackson, Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Mark Andrews, and Myles Garret, but we’ll put some faith in Jackson to have a dominant primetime performance to close out an exciting week of football.

Cleveland: 23 Baltimore: 24

Daily Fantasy Targets

Justin Herbert remains the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and could have a big performance this week against the Falcons (via CBS Sports).

Quarterbacks: Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) and Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)

Two quarterbacks from the same game? That’s the case this weekend, as fantasy owners can expect a bit of a shootout between two offense with so many good offensive weapons. Although their record is poor at best, the Chargers have quickly found their quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert this season. Herbert has been magnificent outside of last weekend, and a matchup against a Falcons’ secondary that has not been able to stop anyone on offense this year could be a great sign for the Los Angeles passing game. On the other side, quarterback Matt Ryan could be forced to keep pace with Herbert in this one and take to the air plenty of times throughout the game on Sunday. The Chargers’ secondary is not bad, but the Falcons have a deep group of wide receivers that has been able to shred even the best defensive backs in football this season. Ryan will likely turn toward Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley early and often on Sunday afternoon, which could once again lead to some huge fantasy numbers for Atlanta’s group. Comfortably take Herbert or Ryan this week, in what should be a thrilling display of offensive football after both teams struggled to put up points against elite defenses last week.

Running Backs: Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) and David Montgomery (Chicago Bears)

Can Zeke finally have a big game for the Cowboys? The superstar running back has had by far the worst season of his career in 2020, but a favorable matchup against a bad Bengals’ defense could finally allow the former Ohio State star to break out and put up huge numbers again for Dallas. The Cowboys’ air raid offense should surely scare fantasy owners who don’t know whether to trust Elliott or not, but people would be wise to risk taking the running back this week with such a glowing matchup ahead of him. Meanwhile, after one of the best games of his career last week against the Lions, running back David Montgomery has a chance for back-to-back big outings for the Bears’ offense. The Texans’ boast one of the worst run defenses in all of football, and you can almost guarantee that Montgomery will be the focal point for Chicago this weekend. He’s been a risky play for most of his short career, but this appears to be a good bet for another great game from the Bears’ back.

Wide Receivers: D.K. Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks) and Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers)

D.K. Metcalf may be one of the most improved players of the 2020 season, taking off on the outside for Seattle and becoming a serious matchup problem for opposing defenses ever week. So what happens when you take this offensive monster and pit him up against a defense that has been shredded all year long? Potentially huge numbers in the connection between quarterback Russell Wilson and Metcalf, who should have a gigantic game on Sunday against a defense that has absolutely nobody capable of covering him. Back in Los Angeles, wide reciever Keenan Allen should be able to keep rolling in the statistical department with another favorable matchup versus the Falcons. The Chargers played terribly last weekend, but the chances of back-to-back clunkers appear to be distant at best with the Falcons allowing so many yards per game through the air. This is great news for Allen, who should once again see a heavy dosage of volume from quarterback Justin Herbert on Sunday.

Tight Ends: Noah Fant (Denver Broncos) and Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens)

Tight end Noah Fant saw a few more targets from quarterback Drew Lock last week than he had in recent weeks, which bodes well for his fantasy value going forward this season. Fant’s unique blend of size and speed at the tight end position makes him a tough cover every week, and Carolina’s lack of impact players on defense could allow Fant to once again see some increased targets in the red zone on Sunday. The Panthers’ defense may create some turnovers on Sunday, but that shouldn’t stop Fant from still putting up some numbers on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Ravens will seriously benefit from the return of tight end Mark Andrews in a potentially season-defining game against the Browns. Andrews was forced to miss the past two weeks with COVID-19, but the Ravens’ passing game looked better last week against the Cowboys. This is the Ravens’ biggest game of the season by far, and the chances for Lamar Jackson to look for their best receiving weapon on offense early and often look extremely high against an iffy Cleveland secondary that has allowed plenty of big plays this season.

Defenses: New England (vs Los Angeles R.) and Carolina (vs Denver)

New England put up one of the biggest games on defense and special teams last week versus the LA Chargers, but can they replicate that same performance against the city’s other team? Maybe they won’t shut them out, but the Patriots’ defense is trending upward right now with their offense still sputtering and with the Rams’ inconsistencies on offense standing out every week. The Rams have plenty of weapons, but the Patriots also have the schematic ability to rattle Jared Goff this weekend and create several key turnovers that could shift the course of the game. Meanwhile, Carolina looks like an easy play against a Denver offense that has been unimpressive all year long. Drew Lock and the Broncos’ offense has been a turnover machine on a weekly basis, and the Panthers’ defense should be well-rested with two weeks to prepare for Denver after last week’s bye week. The Panthers’ defense is not a great unit by any means, largely because they are very young and inexperienced, but look for big numbers in fantasy from their unit this weekend against the Broncos.

Fanatical Focus

Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers: The Two Best in the League

In the likely battle for MVP, who has the edge between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers? (via Yahoo).

Before the season began, many assumed Lamar Jackson had a real chance of repeating the MVP award this season on a loaded Ravens’ team. Then, Russell Wilson took over for a stretch of games to vault him to the top of the MVP race. Tom Brady then threw himself into the mix as a MVP contender before hitting a turnover epidemic with the Bucs’ offense. Even Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook dipped their feet into the conversation, with some yearly Aaron Donald recognition in the distance. But after 13 weeks and plenty of masterful performances at the quarterback position this season, is there any doubt that Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are the two best players in the sport right now?

Donald, fellow teammate Jalen Ramsey, and others on the defensive end may have some words of their own to add into this debate, but Mahomes and Rodgers are currently on record pace in what is turning out to be a tight race toward the finish line. Mahomes was the MVP of the league just two years ago, but Rodgers has not captured the award for six years, making his case just that much stronger coming off

Many expected this type of production out of Mahomes as long as he stayed healthy coming off the Chiefs’ Super Bowl season last year, but few could have predicted that Rodgers would be putting up these numbers once again this late in his career. This isn’t to say that the Green Bay signal caller wasn’t still revered as one of the best at the position in the league coming into the season, but the Packers’ 2019 season showed a legitimate cause for concern that Rodgers would ever be able to put up the same numbers as in years past. With an offensive scheme focused much more on running the ball with Aaron Jones and throwing short to playmakers on the outside under head coach Matt LaFleur, Packer fans were in their right to doubt just how many elite years their current starter had left in terms of a box score.

But through 13 weeks of play, the 16-year pro already has 36 passing touchdowns to lead the league, while also having a real shot of breaking his career-best of 45 touchdowns from the 2011 season. His 118.5 Quarterback Rating also leads the league right now (he also ranks #1 all-time in that category), while his Packers lead the NFC North with a 9-3 record. Rodgers has also had a lot of help on his end, especially with dominant reciever Davante Adams torching defenses every single week, but it’s hard to find one elite quarterback right now who doesn’t have his fair share of stars alongside him on offense. Green Bay’s Super Bowl hopes may rely on plenty of other factors such as an inconsistent defense, but there is no doubt that they have as good of a shot as anybody with Number 12 leading the huddle every week.

Yet Patrick Mahomes still appears to be the favorite at this point, with his Chiefs continuing another year of dominance that may be able to end in another Super Bowl title. While Rodgers leads in touchdown passes, Mahomes leads in passing yards with 3,815 through 12 games, with the Chiefs sitting at the top of the AFC West once again with a outstanding 11-1 record. Mahomes has also clicked with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on a weekly basis this year, forming the best trio of players on offense that anyone can find on any team in the league. It’s true that many expected this from the Chiefs’ third-year starter, but the fact that there only appears to be one real challenger to his throne speaks to just how dominant of a player the former Texas Tech product has been once again this year. Every single week, the Kansas City superstar appears to add another absurd highlight to his already filthy reel, and his high-impact play from week-to-week is sure to win over voters who just cannot believe what they are witnessing every week.

So who has the edge right now? Mahomes has to have the slightest of grip on the award right now due to Kansas City’s record and his recognized status as the top player in the league, but don’t be surprised if Rodgers makes a run toward the end of the season. While the Chiefs face a pretty tough schedule to end their season, the Packers face some upcoming opponents with some very poor defenses, including a potential showcase in Week 16 on Sunday Night Football against the Titans. The award winner could easily come down to a numbers game. Who has more touchdown passes? Who has more passing yards? Who has less turnovers? Who has a better record? It should be a thrilling end to the season between these two generational players, who have wowed fans across the league once again this year with their truly sensational skillsets.