The Big Hens
By Peyton Schultze
UCLA and USC are heading to the Big Ten in a shocking move that could have major consequences across the NCAA (via Los Angeles Times).
In one of the most surprising moves at the collegiate level in quite some time, the UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans officially declared that they will be leaving the Pac-12 Conference for the Big Ten Conference in August of 2024.
A shifting decision that could leave behind some massive consequences for the Pac-12 and the schools already listed within the conference, UCLA and USC will see their men’s and women’s athletic teams face off each and every year with some of the country’s finest talent found within the Big Ten. Whether it is the historic ties of Michigan and Nebraska, or the flashy noise from Ohio State and Penn State, UCLA and USC will soon open up the eyes of collegiate sports fans and go head-to-head with top universities within the Big Ten for the foreseeable future.
It is a massive story with plenty of twists and turns, so let’s look ahead at what this move does for many departments across the NCAA:
The Big Ten’s Power Expands
Things will definitely be getting more crowded in the Big Ten for head coaches Ryan Day and Jim Harbaugh, especially with two rising programs in UCLA and USC due to soon join the conference (via SI).
The only time many people have ever seen the Bruins and Trojans face off against top Big Ten schools has been in Pasadena’s historic Rose Bowl Game, but things will quickly be changing across all sports starting in the fall of 2024. Whether it is soccer, softball, baseball or football, Big Ten fans can soon prepare for the legendary schools of Southern California to head across the country to join in full-time with the talents of the conference, creating a national storm among college athletics amid a budding rivalry with the quickly-expanding prowess of the SEC.
Once the Bruins and Trojans head east, they’ll join a loaded conference across men’s and women’s athletics. Further expansion should yield higher stakes of competition, and UCLA and USC will go face-to-face with top universities and their teams such as:
Illinois Fighting Illini
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Maryland Terrapins
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Northwestern Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Wisconsin Badgers
Adding two of Southern California’s finest to an already-impressive field of top universities gives the Big Ten exactly what they need in their fight against the southern might of the SEC, especially with top head coaches across many sports now flooding the previously watered-down fields of the Big Ten. This move also puts extra emphasis on last year’s headlines that revealed that Oklahoma and Texas would be heading to the SEC starting in 2025, giving the current move by UCLA and USC some more context from the perspective of the Big Ten.
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren has had a rough tenure full of chaos within the conference since taking over in January of 2020, especially in dealing with the rising dominance of the SEC and a near secession from the University of Nebraska due to scheduling disagreements. Yet landing UCLA and USC gives the Big Ten even more national attention across times zones than the SEC (a major factor in their pursuit of the schools), especially considering the conference can now dominate the Saturday college football slate from morning to night. Interested in watching the Trojans head north to face off with the Wolverines inside the Big House on a Big Noon Kickoff on Fox? Check. Or how about seeing the Nittany Lions head to the West Coast for a Saturday night battle inside of the historical Rose Bowl with the UCLA Bruins? Yep, they have that covered too.
From a financial perspective, this move makes the Big Ten the greatest threat to the SEC that they have probably ever seen. It is hard to say that the Big Ten will ever be able to exactly match the flair and audience dominance that sweeps through the southeastern part of the United States on every Saturday, but the addition of two major universities like UCLA and USC gives them some precise ammunition that they will need if they are prepared to finally do battle with Greg Sankey and the SEC for overall athletic supremacy.
Pac-12’s Immediate Problems Could Be Fatal
With UCLA and USC on their way out the door, is it the end of the road for current Pac-12 schools such as Stanford and Oregon? (via Stanford Cardinal and OPB).
When former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott saw his contract as the leader of the conference expire on Thursday, it is hard to imagine he could have predicted two of the most well-known universities in America would immediately leave the conference he oversaw for 12 years as the first step without him in charge. But with the UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans officially leaving behind their traditional West Coast roots for the highs of the Big House, Memorial Stadium and The Shoe, the once-prominent conference looks like it is due for some immediate changes that could make-or-break its status as a lasting powerhouse for years to come.
Although UCLA and USC have not dominated the Pac-12 football landscape over the past decade, their relevance across sports such as track and field, soccer, basketball and baseball will make their departure a tough blow to the conference’s overall standing. Throwing in the fact that UCLA’s well-known basketball teams have jumped out to major success over the past three years and USC is just about to enter a new era of football under promising and offensive-minded head coach Lincoln Riley hurts the situation even more, and there is no doubt there is a major hole left behind with the schools’ ultimate decision to join the looming giant known as the Big Ten.
This officially leaves ten teams in the conference formerly known as the Pac-12 starting in August of 2024, but concerns certainly remain about which universities will choose to stay in the conference for the long-term. For starters, the Oregon Ducks seem like the most likely choice to follow UCLA and USC to the Big Ten due to their overall dominance in the conference over the past ten years across most sports, but Stanford and Utah could be solid candidates to follow as well due to their steady presence. This leaves Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State still in the middle of the mix in the conference, but the door remains open for new spots in the Big-12 as well following the upcoming move of Oklahoma and Texas into the SEC in 2025.
While the Pac-12 could certainly shrink down to their original Pac-10 status, keeping the dynamic trio of Oregon, Stanford and Utah will be very difficult in the next decade due to the rapid and intimidating growth of the Big Ten and SEC from coast-to-coast. This could lead toward an ultimate folding of the entire conference, shattering recruiting promises built up across sports in the last few years and sending the higher-ups in the NCAA into pure flux. Yet the more likely option remains replacing the schools that leave with other universities interested in joining the Power Five index of college sports in the country, especially ones from smaller, local groups such as the West Coast Conference or the Mountain West. Schools that immediately come to mind and fit this bill are Boise State, Fresno State, UNLV, Nevada, San Diego State and San Jose State, although no reports have shown any evidence of any of these schools having interest to this point in time.
In either way, the Pac-12 is going to be forced to adapt quickly, or face their ultimate extinction that would truly bring down years and years of history of college sports on the West Coast. While UCLA and USC’s departures are not the final nail in the coffin, they are certainly a warning sign that the sports world is quickly changing and that the Pac-12 will need to adjust on the fly in order to keep their prior status as the gatekeepers to elite college sports on the West Coast.
Potential College Football Playoff Impact
A crowded field full of contending teams in the soon-to-be Big 10 could make the race for the College Football Playoff even more complex (via NBC Sports).
With Lincoln Riley now in charge for the Trojans and expected to get USC back on a title-winning track, the Big Ten will now see roughly five yearly championship contenders between USC, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State. Adding in USC and their historical relevance to the Big Ten schedule makes things even tougher for the championship hopes in the football conference, and even UCLA looks like a sneaky program that is continuing to show some nice promise under Chip Kelly.
The same problem maybe ahead for the SEC. Although Alabama, Georgia and LSU are title contenders every single year they enter training camp under Saban, Smart and Kelly, Texas A&M just recruited the top class in all of college football and Auburn remains a thorn in the side of the hip for many of the conference’s top teams. That is before even mentioning Florida, Arkansas or Ole Miss, with the looming presence of Oklahoma and Texas soon on the way in 2024 and ready to create even more competition in the sport’s most well-known conference.
This brings the idea of an eight-team College Football Playoff into question. With so much of the nation’s top talent split between just two conferences now and in the near future, it is fair to assume that many of these teams will beat up on each other and essentially create more losses for top seeds and less undefeated seasons in the ways of Clemson in 2018 or LSU in 2019. This paves the way for expansion from four teams into eight teams, especially with less room near the top in such a crowded field full of championship hopefuls who will have to overcome many obstacles over the course of a season in the brutal world of college football.
The wild card university in all of this is Notre Dame. In maintaining their independence time and time again, Notre Dame can essentially pick and choose their opponents for ‘historical’ purposes and avoid ultimate conference play, paving the way for a favorable schedule and playoff appearances in the modern era. But with the Big-12, Pac-12 and ACC all sputtering to a screeching halt and the rise of the two superconferences with the SEC and Big Ten, one has to wonder what Notre Dame’s precise role will be in the future due to their status as a CFP mainstay that is able to stay in the championship mix each and every year. If the Fighting Irish choose to finally give up their independence and join a major conference (likely the ACC, especially since they already have ties in basketball), it could open the door even further toward expansion and create scenarios where only a certain amount of teams per conference are selected to participate. However, if Notre Dame holds off and continues to remain the lone independent juggernaut in South Bend, expansion could be harder to negotiate and members of the Playoff Committee could argue whether or not Notre Dame’s role as a perennial contender with advantages in their favor is working against the superconference trends seen across the sport. It is a lot of power and sway for just one school, but it is certainly a story to keep an eye on as we continue to see schools swap conferences.
In any way, it appears that the traditional four of Clemson, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State may start to hear some new noise at the top with the rise of the SEC and the Big Ten and with the additions of Oklahoma, Texas, UCLA and USC. Fluidity, adaptability and mobility is already on the way across the college football landscape with NIL and the wide-open transfer portal, and the most recent moves from some of the nation’s best athletic programs shows that times are certainly changing across the NCAA.