NFL Weekly Wonder Vol. I - Week 3
By Peyton Schultze
Joe Burrow and the Bengals put up a fight in Week 2 against the reigning champion Chiefs, but fell just short with some critical mistakes (via Chiefs.com).
Welcome back to Weekly Wonder for Volume 1 of the 2024 NFL season!
It has been two years since the last edition of this series, but our overall format remains the same with game picks against the spread for every matchup, along with final score predictions and betting tips. It has been an eventful two weeks in the NFL so far, but with that said, here is your first look at our Week 3 Weekly Wonder - Volume 1!
Game Picks
The Jets did not play great on Sunday, but were able to land the first win of Aaron Rodgers’ career with Gang Green (via Jets X Factor).
Thursday Night Football: New England (+6.5) @ New York J., 5:15 pm PST, Amazon Prime Video
The Jets were lucky to escape with a win last week against a pathetic Tennessee unit, led by several bumbling mistakes from second-year quarterback Will Levis. Yet Aaron Rodgers made just enough plays on Sunday to get it done through the air, setting the way for this Thursday matchup with a New England team that has been better than expected to begin the season.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ run defense has been surprisingly poor to begin the year and with CJ Mosley’ status uncertain for this Thursday Night Football matchup, expect New England’s hefty offensive line to pave some holes for running back Rhamondre Stevenson, off to an excellent start this season as the Patriots’ primary offensive weapon.
The Jets’ home crowd should be rowdy in Aaron Rodgers’ first game back at MetLife Stadium since suffering a torn Achilles last September, giving New York (New Jersey?) a slight advantage. Yet don’t be afraid of siding with New England with the points in a nail biter.
New England: 16 New York J: 20
Pick of the Day: Houston (-2.5) @ Minnesota, 10:00 am PST, CBS
Yes, Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings’ offense got in done on Sunday, confusing a solid San Francisco unit full of Pro Bowlers all day long. And yes, the Vikings’ defense sent waves of confusion in the face of Brock Purdy, stifling a lethal 49ers’ attack and holding them to only 17 points.
But CJ Stroud and a dynamic Houston offense not even getting more than a field goal is a very questionable move by books, who clearly feel like Minnesota may be overvalued at this point in time. The Vikings should be able to compete in this game and hold their own again on offense, even with the status of Justin Jefferson in the air. But Stroud’s ability to take care of the ball and burn defenses to death with long, methodical drives gives the Texans a clear advantage in this game, especially if Darnold turns the ball over once or twice.
While the Vikings figure to be NFC North players all season long in a tight race with the Lions and Packers, the Texans (and the over set at 45.5 points) are the clear move in this game, with a touchdown apiece from Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs in this Week 3 matchup.
Houston: 31 Minnesota: 20
Sunday Morning: Los Angeles C. @ Pittsburgh (-1.0), CBS
The status of Justin Herbert’s leg is a major question heading into this Week 3 matchup, especially against TJ Watt and a Pittsburgh team that is certainly ready to make their home debut for the 2024 season. The Steelers, no matter what analysts want to tell you, have played decent complimentary football so far this season, using Justin Fields and a very solid run game to churn the clock, pick up an occasional big play and use an imposing style to grind games out.
That’s not to say that the Chargers have also not played great football, especially on the ground with JK Dobbins running behind one of the best offensive lines in the sport. However, these Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers are about to get their first real test of the season on the road in a hostile environment in a situation where the Steelers thrive: with their backs against the wall and with all of the focus being pointed toward the Chargers.
This line has moved from -2.5 all the way down to -1.0, which stirs the debate if this game actually gets to a pick ‘em by the time kickoff rolls around. We usually hate Pittsburgh as a favorite by 3 or more points as the books initially opened as, but in a tight battle at home against a physical team, we tend to side with Mike Tomlin’s squad on a week-to-week basis.
Los Angeles C.: 16 Pittsburgh: 17
Sunday Morning: Denver @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
The Buccaneers have somehow found a way to shock many people and put together two impressive wins to open up the 2024 season, with Baker Mayfield continuing to prove that the Bucs made the right choice in bringing him back. Week 1 was an explosion from Mike Evans while Week 2 saw a mega-game from Chris Godwin, and this Tampa squad comes in firing on all cylinders against a Denver team looking for answers.
Yet the main reason for concern for the Broncos in this game is not even their passing attack with Bo Nix at the helm, but with a running game that has been nonexistent behind an offensive line that has not met expectations whatsoever. This is a losing formula against a Tampa Bay unit that has been dominant in years past against the run, which should be a major concern for anyone looking to bet on Sean Payton’s young Denver squad.
Many may point toward Tampa potentially looking ahead to a Week 4 battle with the Eagles in this matchup, but a West team having to travel across the country for a morning kickoff in humid weather is always a red flag. Baker and the Bucs may not have a field day with a Broncos’ defense that has actually been very solid through two games, but expect Tampa to move to 3-0 with a win on Sunday.
Denver: 13 Tampa Bay: 23
Alvin Kamara’s superstar status returned to the NFL spotlight last Sunday in the Saints’ dominant win on the road over the Cowboys (via Yahoo! Sports).
Sunday Morning: Philadelphia @ New Orleans (-2.5), 10:00 am PST, FOX
It’s rare to see Vegas oddsmakers potentially mess up a line early on, but the Eagles vs Saints matchup saw a major points swing on Monday night following the Eagles’ loss at home to the Falcons. Starting as three point favorites and now entering as 2.5 point underdogs, it is clear that Vegas was under the impression that Philadelphia would be 2-0 heading into this game with the money floating in their direction for Week 3… and that the Saints would not be as dominant as they have been.
However, it is key to note that the Eagles should also be 2-0 if it wasn’t for a simple Saquon Barkley 4th quarter drop, barring the question if this swing is actually valid. Usually, I would agree and lean toward Philadelphia, but New Orleans seems to have something already that many teams are not able to find until November or December: an identity.
The Saints’ ground attack paired with their play-action passing game has been awesome through two weeks, and there is no reason that this type of dominance can’t continue against one of the league’s worst defensive units in Philly. While “mastermind” Vic Fangio was supposed to fix this defense, the Eagles now look even more vulnerable than ever and will need to score a ton on Sunday to pull it off. Will they do it? Ride the heat wave and take the Saints to roll on Sunday.
Philadelphia: 24 New Orleans: 33
Sunday Morning: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Tennessee, 10:00 am PST, FOX
Every week has a line that doesn’t make much sense, and for Week 3, this might be the bait. Tennessee hung around with Chicago and New York in back-to-back weeks with plenty of chances to win, but their offense made several huge mistakes in both contests that broke their spirits and their bodies, sending the Titans to 0-2.
Meanwhile, Malik Willis filled in nicely last week for the injured Jordan Love, taking over and operating a great rushing attack with running back Josh Jacobs as the workhorse. This game planning could work wonders against a Titans’ squad that has struggled to take care of the ball, which should give Green Bay a slight advantage even on the road this week.
At the end of the day, head coach Matt Lafleur has proven to be very solid against the spread in his career, and Green Bay remains a disciplined team that can take advantage of Tennessee’s mental mistakes all day long. Be careful taking the Packers with a lot of confidence but look for a nice road win over the Titans.
Green Bay: 20 Tennessee: 17
Sunday Morning: New York G. (+6.0) @ Cleveland, 10:00 am PST, FOX
A Sunday snoozefest in Cleveland, there is no need to get up out of your chair to bet on this game. While the Giants are slightly undervalued considering their roster limitations, they still sit at 0-2 with disaster inching closer and closer to the edge. However, Daniel Jones showed signs of hope last week in a connection with Malik Nabers, which is great sign for New York fans as their offense looks to get things going.
Yet the Browns’ defense remains arguably the best in the league, and there is no reason to believe that Cleveland won’t continue this dominance on Sunday. But Deshaun Watson and the Browns’ offense remains a puzzle piece that was placed in the wrong box, setting back this team from reaching the top of the NFC North. This along with their inability to often score more than 20 points in a game leaves the door open for the Giants to make some noise in this game, which could be a massive break for head coach Brian Daboll.
This is a sleepy game that should be low scoring, but the New York defense can hang around with Cleveland… because anyone can hang around with Cleveland’s feeble offense. We’ll take the Browns to win by a field goal, but this looks like a good spot for the Giants to cover.
New York: 13 Cleveland: 16
Sunday Morning: Chicago @ Indianapolis (-1.0), 10:00 am PST, CBS
Much like the Bengals, the Colts have been slow starters in the past several seasons before making midseason strides, which is a good sign after another 0-2 start. Yet Indianapolis’ offense, led by young Anthony Richardson and one of the game’s best backs in Jonathan Taylor, will face a big challenge with the Bears’ defense on Sunday, which was able to limit Houston’s scoring attack a week ago.
Yet the Bears are coming off an extremely emotional road loss where they had several opportunities to win, which could do a lot of damage for a young team looking to find its place on both sides of the ball. The Colts remain a solid group on defense, and Caleb Williams, who has struggled through two games, will need security blanket Keenan Allen back in the lineup on Sunday if they want to have a decent showing.
This feels like an easy nod to Indy, especially with their playoff aspirations and hope to get back into the mix in the AFC South. This is a bad spot for the Bears, and while Richardson can be inconsistent at best against good defenses, look for him to make one or two splash plays to get the Colts their first win of the season.
Chicago: 10 Indianapolis: 24
The Raiders’ come-from-behind victory against the Ravens saved them from an 0-2 start, and could spark a run early in the season (via Las Vegas Sun).
Sunday Afternoon: Carolina @ Las Vegas (-5.5), 1:05 pm PST, CBS
It is baffling just how low this number is. In Week 2 on the road against the Ravens, Las Vegas put together an incredible comeback win in one of Antonio Pierce’s signature wins as head coach of the Raiders, with ferocious defensive play against Lamar Jackson and a brewing connection between Gardner Minshew II and Davante Adams beginning to form.
Meanwhile, chaos ensued in Carolina on Monday, when the Panthers benched 2023 first-round pick Bryce Young in favor of 36-year-old Andy Dalton. The Panthers look almost worse than they did a year ago after owning the worst record in the league in 2023, and Young’s potential has been stunted with a lack of a supporting cast and not much development when it comes to his command of the offense. Yet Carolina believes the veteran Dalton gives them the best chance to win right now (with a career 4-0 record against the Raiders); we’ll see.
The Raiders are 1-1 and may be undervalued right now, especially coming off two road matchups against teams that could be in the AFC playoffs. Trends show bettors looking toward a surprise cover toward Carolina right now, but with a point differential of -60 through just two games, it is hard to imagine a situation where the Panthers do not get blown out once again during the Raiders’ Week 3 home opener.
Carolina: 10 Las Vegas: 23
Sunday Afternoon: Miami (+4.5) @ Seattle, 1:05 pm PST, CBS
Seattle is 2-0 and has played well in the second half of both of their wins, but is their first half luck about to run out? Geno Smith has once again found a connection with DK Metcalf, but the major surprise in Week 2 was the play of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who torched New England through the air last Sunday.
Yet all eyes are looking toward Seattle winning this game with Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out, which could put a dent into Miami’s offensive hopes. Yet head coach Mike McDaniel is the master of getting his best players the ball in the open field under any circumstances, and one would think that Tyreek Hill will be a major focal point of this offense on Sunday after a rough outing last week against Buffalo.
This is not to say that Miami will or even could win outright in one of the NFL’s toughest home environments, but don’t write off a Dolphin squad that made the playoffs a year ago quite yet. Seattle has yet to play a full game against two of the league’s worst teams with Denver and New England, and Miami will present some tough challenges of their own in a close game on Sunday.
Miami: 21 Seattle: 24
Sunday Afternoon: San Francisco @ Los Angeles R. (+7.5), 1:25 pm PST, FOX
Deebo Samuel has had the Rams’ number in recent seasons, and his absence for this game could be a major loss for a 49ers’ team that is already beaten up. In addition, on top of injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Samuel, one red flag for the 49ers this season has been the poor play of their offensive line, putting even more pressure on Brock Purdy to take care of the ball with all the weight of the offense suddenly being put on his shoulders.
This is not the 49ers’ way of winning, especially with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle still in the lineup. But if the Rams want any chance of hanging in this game against a team that has given them fits in recent seasons, they must apply pressure early and often on Purdy and use Kyren Williams effectively, with occasional touches from Ronnie Rivers and Blake Corum. This must come from creative scheming with a lot of misdirection on the ground and through a quick passing game, which gave this Niners’ defense issues a week ago.
Stay away from this game all together, especially as two of the league’s best coaches face off in a chess match with battered rosters across the board. Give the Niners a slight advantage with Kyle Shanahan’s dynamic coaching history against Sean McVay, but don’t be surprised if the Rams keep this close.
San Francisco: 23 Los Angeles R.: 17
Sunday Afternoon: Baltimore @ Dallas (+1.5), 1:25 pm PST, FOX
Baltimore’s crushing home loss to Las Vegas last week was a poor response to a tough Week 1 road loss to the Chiefs, but the emergency bells will surely start ringing if the Ravens lose this week on the road to a Cowboys team that just got blown out by the Saints.
The Ravens are in an odd spot: what is their biggest problem right now with this much talent on their roster? Three things: poor offensive line play in front of Lamar Jackson, the loss of their star defensive coordinator and continued situational problems from head coach Jim Harbaugh. These types of flaws are usually saved for a team like Dallas every year, but it is becoming concerning how the Ravens continue to surround their star quarterback with so little.
All that leads to a huge game in the afternoon, which could move to a pick ‘em by kickoff. We do not have a clear feel for this game, but lean toward a slight advantage for a Dallas team that rarely loses back-to-back home games. Look for Micah Parsons to be the key in a game that may be more low scoring than people expect, with kicker Brandon Aubrey being the difference in the game’s final seconds.
Baltimore: 20 Dallas: 23
Kirk Cousins’ late Monday night heroics sealed a huge road win for Atlanta heading into a Week 3 battle with the defending champion Chiefs (via SB Nation).
Sunday Afternoon: Detroit @ Arizona (+3.0), 1:25 pm PST, FOX
Our second favorite play of the day comes in the sweltering desert, where the Arizona Cardinals seem to have taken a massive step forward this season through two games. Coming into the season, a two-game gauntlet against the Bills and Rams would have been seen as a gigantic challenge, but the Cardinals have played very well in both games and ride high into this Week 3 matchup against a Super Bowl contender.
For the Lions, things need to change quickly. While their defense has played very well through two games, Detroit has abandoned their elite run game far too early in games this season, which goes against their identity and overall style of play. Can the Lions win in a shootout? Sure. But can the Lions really grind out teams and wear them down in the 4th quarter behind a two-headed rushing attack better than anyone else? You bet.
And yet, Detroit is not there right now, while Arizona is playing some confident football right now with Kyler Murray healthy again. The Cardinals may not be this good later in the season as they are right now, but they might be meeting the Lions at a perfect time in this home matchup. Detroit is tempting as always, but Arizona remains the play in this one.
Arizona: 30 Detroit: 27
Sunday Night Football: Kansas City (-3.5) @ Atlanta, 5:20 pm PST, NBC
Kansas City struggled but snuck by with a win, while their opponent pulled off a huge win a week ago before a matchup with the defending champs? We have seen this script many times before, and while Atlanta heads back home with a lot of confidence, the Chiefs may have an angry performance in this one.
With Isiah Pacheco out with a broken leg and with players such as Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele and Samaje Perine thrust into new prominent roles, Kansas City may have to reinvent themselves once again. What does that mean in the short term? Likely a turn toward their ol’ reliable target and a big game from tight end Travis Kelce on Sunday Night Football, who has struggled through two games but will be in a prime spot to deliver in front of a big audience on Sunday night.
Meanwhile, Atlanta’s defense has played well in back-to-back games, but even with his late-game heroics on Monday night, Kirk Cousins may need a little more time to get comfortable in this offense before they can compete for the NFC South crown. The Falcons are a good team that may contend later this year, but a short week against the defending champions is always a major concern.
Kansas City: 27 Atlanta: 17
Monday Night Football: Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-5.5), 4:30 pm PST, ESPN
Everyone knows that Jacksonville was overvalued heading into this season, with Trevor Lawrence and company still making the same mistakes that have haunted them over the past two seasons. So why is this line so low, and why are the Bills not getting even more respect in a Monday night primetime showdown at home?
This line tells me that Vegas is banking on Buffalo not being able to stay disciplined for the third straight week with a balanced rushing attack and quick strikes down the middle of the field from Josh Allen, which has worked wonders through two games this season. With that said, if the Bills can avoid shooting themselves in the foot and rely on James Cook’s legs to deliver another win on Monday night, expect Vegas to start bloating these Buffalo lines in future weeks.
This is not a game that should strike up a ton of betting interest, especially since you would imagine this line would be closer to -7.5 or -8.0. Take the Bills and the under (45.5) on Monday night, but tread with caution.
Jacksonville: 14 Buffalo: 23
Monday Night Football: Washington (+7.5) @ Cincinnati, 5:15 pm PST, ABC
It’s fitting that an ideal backdoor cover would come from the final game of the Week 3 slate, but the 7.5 point hook really makes this game a betting challenge, especially when it comes to an up-and-down Washington offense facing off with a Super Bowl contender in need of a win on the board.
Jayden Daniels has played some tough football through two weeks despite poor play from the Commanders’ offensive line, but as for any rookie quarterback, his red zone play has been ineffective at best. However, his ability to keep plays alive and use his legs to grab first downs will give the Cincinnati defense issues, keeping this game closer than it should be with a nice night from running back Brian Robinson Jr.
However, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense is due for a big win on Monday Night Football, especially after their franchise quarterback looked great and fully recovered from his previous wrist injury last week against the Chiefs. Look for the Bengals to be in control of this game from start to finish, with the occasional big play from Washington to keep this game close.
Washington: 20 Cincinnati: 27