Back in Blue

By Peyton Schultze

Clayton Kershaw may have some diminished fastball velocity, but his ability to adapt will enable him to compete with the league’s best hitters for the next decade (via Dodger Blue).

Entering the 2019 regular season, no Dodger player had more question marks surrounding his name than the seven-time All Star, three-time NL Cy Young award winner, and certainly future Hall-of-Famer in starting pitcher, Clayton Kershaw. After several straight seasons of postseason failure and a overload of back and shoulder injuries that have limited time on the field, fans had plenty of concerns heading into Spring Training in Arizona.

And then another injury happened.

Another shoulder issue caused Kershaw to miss a significant amount of time at Camelback Ranch and even found a way into the start of the regular season, delaying his regular season debut and leading into the tough choice to have Kershaw miss his first Opening Day start in seven seasons. Although the Dodgers were able to thrive without him in the beginning of 2019, it is tough for any club to be able to succeed without their top-line starter, especially in the case of the perennial All-Star in Kershaw. Baseball scouts, coaches, and fans around the league had a right to question Kershaw’s durability, as well as the Dodgers’ handling of the entire situation regarding his shoulder injury.

But as he so often has over his career. Kershaw has defied the naysayers and returned to a dominant, yet new, level that the Dodgers need in order to win their first World Series since 1988.

Kershaw and the Dodgers have been haunted by past postseason failures in recent seasons (such as in 2018, pictured above), but are off to a hot and promising start in 2019 (via NBC Sports).

Of the notable observations that have come from Kershaw’s three starts in 2019, the most intruiging have to be his always-great ability to generate soft contact and strand many runners in scoring position. In his three starts versus the Reds, Brewers, and Pirates, Kershaw has been able to limit most damage against him, with only 1 earned run coming from .something other than a home run. However, his home-run happy habits have somewhat seeped into this year as well, although he did not allow any in his most recent start at home against Pittsburgh.

While the home runs are still a concern, one great sign for the Dodgers has to be the emergence of Kershaw’s ability to keep a somewhat-low pitch count a complete more than 5 innings in each of his starts. Over the past few seasons, a narrative around the league has been built that hitters must attack Kershaw early in the count, as he often wants to control at-bats with first-pitch strikes that are often fastballs. However, this has allowed Kershaw to have some very quick innings and keep a low pitch count that could be a huge advantage during the course of the season as his workload begins to increase. The less pitches Kershaw has to throw now while benefit the Dodgers in October later.

Of course, the ability to control at-bats and an overall game ties directly to Kershaw’s stuff. In past postseasons, Kershaw has often simply not had his best stuff on each night, which he then tries to overcome through will and perserverance. Kershaw’s unreal and spectacular competitiveness has been great for the Dodgers over the years, but also come back to bite them at times.

However, we have seen signs of Kershaw’s ability to adapt to this narrative as well. In his second start against the Milwaukee Brewers (the Dodgers’ 2018 NLCS opponent that carries some deadly hitters), Kershaw did not his command in order as he usually does, even walking four batters. However, Kershaw was able to get out of any major damage (2 ER, both on a Lorenzo Cain home run) through timely situational pitching and generating soft-contact when hitters trid to be aggressive. This rapid and effective approach may remind Dodger fans of Zack Greinke’s time with Los Angeles, as the right-hander was forced to change his pitching style as he entered his 30’s and lost some velocity on his pitches., yet dominated hitters near the top of the Dodgers’ rotation for several seasons.

Yet similar to the Dodger-version of Greinke (or even the current version of fellow Dodger-lefty Rich Hill), Kershaw is being forced to deal with some physical limitations. Kershaw’s fastball now steadily sits around 90-91 mph, which is certianly different from his peak fastball form that ranged from 93-95 mph. Yet Kershaw’s epic command of that fastball on the corners still remians elite in the game, and will serve him well as the year moves on.

But what is most important in Kershaw’s own pitching repertoire is certainly his wipeout slider that has dominated hitters for almost a decade. Yet, last season and into the playoffs, Kershaw’s slider suddenly became more vulnerable, averaging around 87-89 mph and resembling more of a cutter to hitters out of his left hand (a term Kershaw himself would not like). The only slight difference in velocity between his fastball and slider allowed hitters to become even more successful at the plate against the left-hander, resulting in a little more damage than Kershaw has been used to, such as in the 2018 World Series.

However, Kershaw’s slider velocity has dipped in 2019, which is a great sign for the Dodgers. As his slider loses velocity, Kershaw’s ability to manipulate hitters can become even more obvious with an ability to control a hitter with his mix of pitches, which will make it even harder for hitters to distinguish Kershaw’s pitches with his herky-jerky windup, unmatched competitiveness and his creative mind (he has also shown more of a willingness to develop a changeup, a pitch he has been unable to master so far in his career). If he can control at-bats with a steady fastball and an elite slider that still ranks among the game’s best pitches, Kershaw certainly has a chance to return to the prior Cy Young form that he craves. And of coursem he still has Public Enemy #1 in his back pocket:

The Dodgers’ hopes for a World Series title may certainly rely on the left-arm of Clayton Kershaw in 2019, especially with an already-potent lineup that has been producing big numbers with players such as Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Alex Verdugo. Will Kershaw be able to carry the load over the course of the season and return to his MVP form? Who knows what the former All-Star has in store, but there is one thing that can be said with certainty. He’s back.