NFL Weekly Wonder, Edition #1
By Peyton Schultze
The league’s reigning MVP is back in-action this Sunday against the upstart Cleveland Browns (via The Ringer).
The NFL returns! After a maddeningly long offseason that had many doubting that we would even see the return of the NFL season, here we are with a full slate of Week 1 action on the way. And with the kickoff between the Texans and Chiefs just a mere hours away at this point, the hype for the 2020 season is building even higher with so many emerging teams entering the title conversation.
In the first edition of our NFL Weekly Wonder series, we’ll look at how each game could pan out and some fantasy targets for those interested in daily fantasy options. There’s plenty of interesting matchups scheduled for the kickoff weekend, and it should be very interesting to see how teams come out to play without a preseason and with a lack of on-the-field action since teams returned to camp. Nevertheless, and without further ado, here’s the first edition of our NFL Weekly Wonder series, focusing on Week 1 of the NFL’s upcoming 101st season.
Game-By-Game Looks
Head coach Matt Nagy will likely have a short leash with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who looks like he’ll get the Week 1 nod versus the Lions (via Bleeding Green Nation).
Thursday: Houston @ Kansas City (-9.5), 5:20 PM PT, NBC
The defending Super Bowl champions enter the 2020 season with high hopes of a return to the top of the league, but their repeat journey through the AFC gauntlet begins in Week 1 in a battle with Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. The last time they met, the Chiefs rallied from a 24-point deficit to shock the world and get their first playoff win of the season on their way to a championship. So will the Texans get their revenge after their historic collapse? The banner will raise, energy will be high, and Patrick Mahomes enters his third full-season as a starter, so expect fireworks in Kansas City in the league’s kickoff game.
Houston: 21 Kansas City: 34
Sunday: Seattle (-1.5) @ Atlanta, 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Opening up their season on the road versus a team seeking a bounce-back year may be a tough sign for the Seahawks, despite being widely acknowledged as one of the favorites to take home a Super Bowl championship in the 2020 season. But with Russell Wilson suiting up again for Seattle and with some elite weapons on both sides of the ball, the Seahawks should be able to handle the Falcons in their Week 1 matchup. Look for a high-scoring affair with question marks on both defenses, but Wilson’s 4th-quarter magic should be the difference maker.
Atlanta: 31 Seattle: 35
Sunday: Cleveland @ Baltimore (-9.0), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
The Ravens have massive expectations following Lamar Jackson’s absurd 2019 season, but they’ll surely face a tough test in Week 1 versus the rival Browns. With a new head coach in town, a quiet offseason from Baker Mayfield, and plenty of strong talent on both sides of the ball for the Browns, Cleveland has a chance to open some eyes around the league if they can shut down Jackson and pull off the upset. But even though these Browns should improve, the Ravens are contenders on a mission right now. Expect a close-game early on that could open up later in the second half as last year’s league MVP displays what new skills he has in store for 2020.
Cleveland: 20 Baltimore: 27
Sunday: New York J. @ Buffalo (-6.0), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
Buffalo enters the 2020 season as the AFC East favorite for the first time in over a decade, and they have a glaring opportunity to make some real noise if they can stay healthy over the course of the season. But this matchup happens to be a great scheduling break for the Jets, traveling on the road to Buffalo without any poor weather conditions in the picture. The focus of this game will be on quarterbacks Josh Allen and Sam Darnold as they try to prove their worth as capable starters in the league, but the story will be which defense can create more turnovers on Sunday afternoon. Allen and the Bills’ offense appears to be a little bit more of a work-in-progress with Stefon Diggs now in the picture, so don’t be stunned if New York pulls of the upset.
Buffalo: 17 New York J: 20
Sunday: Las Vegas (-2.5) @ Carolina, 10:00 AM PT, CBS
The new era of football in the Sin City opens up on the road for the Raiders, who will face an interesting matchup with Christian McCaffrey and the unpredictable Carolina Panthers. It’s a major question if either of these teams will make a surprise run toward the postseason in 2020 with major holes on both defenses, so this Week 1 battle figures to be a litmus test for what each team’s season will look like. But with slightly better weapons in Carolina and the downside of having to travel across the country for their first matchup of the season, this is not a great look for the Raiders. Bettors lean toward Vegas for this game, but we’ll take Carolina to pull off a win at home in the first week of the season.
Las Vegas: 27 Carolina: 33
Sunday: Chicago @ Detroit (-2.5), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
2019 was an underwhelming season for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears, but they have a chance at redemption this year with much lower expectations in the Windy City. Meanwhile, many analysts have been pointing toward Detroit’s talented roster as led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, which could eventually lead to a shocking playoff berth for the typically-disappointing Lions. Both of these instances make this divisional matchup a toss-up, but Chicago has owned the series in recent memory despite some pure incompetence on offense. Due to that reason and the fact that the Bears’ defense should be healthy and geared up for the first divisional game of the year, look for a nice Week 1 performance from Chicago.
Detroit: 21 Chicago: 23
Sunday: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Jacksonville, 10:00 AM PT, CBS
Philip Rivers’ first year in Indianapolis should be an interesting story to watch, but he’ll have the benefit of getting his first snaps as a starter against one of the league’s worst teams. And even though Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars were a fun punchline for most of last season, there are nit many people who believe their current roster has a ton of stars who figure to be in Jacksonville for the long-term. Behind a dominant offensive line that should push around a weak Jaguars’ defense, Indy should roll all afternoon long on one of Sunday’s least interesting games.
Jacksonville: 13 Indianapolis: 31
Sunday: Green Bay @ Minnesota (-3.0), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
A great matchup of two teams looking to get back into the NFC playoffs, Sunday’s morning slate is headlined in the form of a battle between old NFC North foes. Green Bay had one of the most controversial offseasons of any team in the league, while the Vikings made some great moves to bolster their roster and to compete with the best teams in the NFC. So will Minnesota’s offseason brilliance pay off in their first matchup versus a playoff-caliber team? We think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers may have something up their sleeve in 2020, and Week 1 could be a great display for a vintage Rodgers performance against a team trying to claim the top spot in the division.
Minnesota: 17 Green Bay: 28
Cam Newton’s first start as a Patriot in the post-Brady era should be very fun to watch, especially as they take on the rival Dolphins (via USA Today).
Sunday: Miami @ New England (-6.5), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
Miami seems to always hang around in games versus New England in any situation, so how will they fare against a Patriots’ team that no longer has Tom Brady? This remains a very intriguing mystery entering Week 1, as does the potential season that quarterback Cam Newton could have. Newton has earned rave reviews from camp and is starting to bring even more hype to the Patriots’ organization, but will he be enough despite a depleted roster? Maybe or maybe not, but the Patriots have a great start to their schedule by opening up at home without any weather problems scheduled for the weekend. Cam should be good to go for Week 1, and the Patriots should get off to a roaring start against a very young Dolphins roster.
Miami: 10 New England: 21
Sunday: Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Washington, 10:00 AM PT, FOX
It would be very difficult to find a team with a worse offseason than the Washington Football Team, who enter the 2020 with no expectations when it comes to winning games. Although Washington has some talent on their roster such as on the defensive line, this team figures to be near the bottom of the standings and could face some harsh struggles early on. This should be a great sign for an Eagles team rolling into Washington DC in hopes of getting their season off to a good start with a divisional win, especially as they look forward with Super Bowl aspirations. Although the Washington defense could keep this game close early on, expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles to take control of this game eventually and cruise to an easy Week 1 win.
Washington: 9 Philadelphia: 30
Sunday: Los Angeles C. (-3.0) @ Cincinnati, 1:05 PM PT, CBS
After a miserable 2019 season, the Bengals appear to suddenly have a clear direction for their franchise with rookie quarterback and former Heisman winner Joe Burrow now in the picture. But even with hope on the horizon for the Bengals, they run into a tough first matchup against a very talented Chargers’ team, even though they are at home. Los Angeles is not necessarily a dominant unit on either side of the ball, but they are more than capable of taking over the control of a game with dominant pas catchers and pass rushers on their roster. The Bengals could make this close and provide some fun-to-watch, but this should not be a very close game for the clearly superior Chargers.
Cincinnati: 24 Los Angeles C: 31
Sunday: Arizona @ San Francisco (-7.5), 1:25 PM PT, FOX
The 49ers posses one of the best defenses in all of football, but Kyler Murray and the Cardinals were one of the only teams that gave them some real problems in 2019. And now with Arizona’s offense taking a step forward with the addition of reciever DeAndre Hopkins, this game should a very interesting one to watch on both sides of the ball. In the end, the Niners should win with such superior talent and experience all across the board. But expect a bit of a shootout in Santa Clara this weekend, which has a chance of being one of the biggest upsets of the first week if Arizona can find a way to limit their turnovers and create big plays against the scary San Francisco defense.
Arizona: 31 San Francisco: 34
Sunday: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3.5), 1:25 PM PT, FOX
The surefire game of the week between NFC South foes, Tom Brady and the new-look Bucs travel down to the bayou for an outstanding matchup with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Both teams have major Super Bowl-sized expectations, and the Week 1 matchup has a chance to get very testy early on in order to establish their place as favorites in the division. Upon normal circumstances with fans in the stands, we would almost rule out the Bucs from pulling off the upset in Brady’s first start with Tampa Bay. But with plenty of missing noise in the Superdome without those rowdy Saints fans, Brady and the Bucs may actually be able to pull off the win and immediately put the rest of the NFL on watch.
New Orleans: 27 Tampa Bay: 28
Sunday: Dallas (-2.5) @ Los Angeles R., 5:20 PM PT, NBC
Another great Week 1 matchup, the first Sunday Night Football game of the season figures to be a battle between two playoff hopefuls trying to recover from disappointing 2019 seasons. The Rams will open the brand-new SoFi Stadium for all to see despite fans in the stands, but expect Dallas to come on the road and put up a fight all night long. But even though the Cowboys should hang around, their trend of playing down to teams from a season ago could easily follow them into this year despite the addition of head coach Mike McCarthy. In the end, in a rejuvenated performance from Jared Goff and the Rams’ offense, Los Angeles could start 1-0 and show they’re a real team to be reckoned with in 2020.
Dallas: 27 Los Angeles: 31
Monday: Pittsburgh (-5.0) @ New York G., 4:10 PM PT, ESPN
The league’s first Monday Night Football game of the season sees the return of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger from injury, which should lift the Steelers throughout the year. The Giants’ offense, as led by Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, should be an explosive unit this year, but they run into a brutal Week 1 matchup against one of the league’s best defenses. Who knows if Pittsburgh can really challenge Baltimore for the top spot in the AFC North by season’s end, but they’ll start off their 2020 campaign with a solid road win against a weaker opponent in New York.
New York: 23 Pittsburgh: 27
Monday: Tennessee @ Denver (-1.0), 7:20 PM PT, ESPN
One of the biggest toss-ups of the Week 1 slate, Tennessee versus Denver figures to be a physical matchup between playoff hopefuls. The Titans are coming off a magical 2019 playoff run that looked as if it promised a bright future, but this week could give us a preview of their outlook for 2020. Meanwhile, Denver had a solid offseason that saw them add some real weapons for quarterback Drew Lock, so the Broncos expect to take a step forward in a competitive AFC West. It should be a low-scoring and imposing battle between two similar teams, but look for the Broncos to have the upper hand all night long in the tough air conditions of the Mile High City.
Tennessee: 17 Denver: 21
Daily Fantasy Targets
The second-year Raiders’ running back, Josh Jacobs, should see a high volume of carries early on in the season for Las Vegas (via USA Today).
Quarterbacks: Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers) and Cam Newton (New England Patriots)
Niners’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had a very good 2019 season in general, but he really had a great 2019 season when facing the Arizona Cardinals. Throwing for eight touchdowns in two games alone last season, Garoppolo carved up the Cardinals’ defense in 2019 and could easily do the same in 2020 without any major boosts on the Arizona defense. The loss of Deebo Samuel could hurt if he is unable to suit up, but the 49ers’ star should have plenty of other weapons surrounding him to attack Arizona’s secondary. Meanwhile, one of the more interesting projections of Week 1 is the curious play of Patriots’ quarterback Cam Newton. Fantasy production can always come and go in New England, but Newton should be the focal point of the Patriots’ offense and see a rise in carries once again as their full-time starter. Facing a questionable Miami defense without any major strengths, Week 1 could see the veteran Newton look like a young star once again on the ground and through the air.
Running Backs: Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders) and Austin Ekeler (Los Angeles Chargers)
In a duel of great running backs between himself and Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs should see a lot of early volume as the centerpiece of Jon Gruden’s versatile offense. Facing a poor Carolina defense in Week 1 is a great signal for the young Raiders’ superstar, and it would not be a surprise to see the Raiders try to grind out yards on offense and physically dominate the game in the trenches from the start of the game. This could lead to promising touchdown production for Jacobs, and look for him to finish as a top-three fantasy performer for Week 1. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler should get his fair share of touches through the air and on the ground for a Los Angeles offense with major question marks. Although Tyrod Taylor is an experienced starter in the league, the Chargers could easily have a conservative approach to Week 1 that see Ekeler and Keenan Allen with plenty of touches. In addition to a touchdown or two against a weak Bengals’ defense, Ekeler could finish with around 8 catches in addition to plenty of well-earned yards on the ground.
Wide Receivers: Allen Robinson II (Chicago Bears) and TY Hilton (Indianapolis Colts)
With Darius Slay no longer in the Lions’ secondary, there’s a gaping hole for opponents to expose with tall and lengthy wide receivers. Allen Robinson II will be the first major test for the Detroit defense, and he should see plenty of targets early on despite the insertion of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky into the starting lineup. He’s the Bears’ ultimate target in the red zone and in terms of yards after the catch, so look for Robinson to expose a weak secondary that could see a rookie corner on him all afternoon long. Over in Jacksonville, secondary problems also linger without any significant names able to contain some of the best receivers in the league. This is an encouraging thing for Philip Rivers in his first career start with the Colts, and look for the gunslinger to turn toward his top reciever TY Hilton early on in the game. Hilton could explode on Sunday afternoon with some deep touchdowns and long yardage, and it would not be a surprise to see Rivers with a vintage performance against a terrible Jaguars’ defense that Hilton could torch with his route running and speed.
Tight Ends: Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams) and Noah Fant (Denver Broncos)
Both of these tight ends had extremely strong finishes to the 2019 season, so it will be interesting to see if they ride last year’s momentum into a strong start in 2020. For Higbee, quarterback Jared Goff found himself a reliable safety blanket to go along with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp in the tight end, so expect bigger numbers in general this year. The Rams face a favorable matchup against a Dallas’ defense suffering some major losses in the secondary such as Bryon Jones, so don’t be shocked to see some solid numbers in the Goff and Higbee connection. In Denver, second-year tight end Noah Fant could be in for a huge boost in production. Finishing the 2019 season as one of Drew Lock’s top targets, Fant should see an uptick in targets his way, especially as defenses focus on stopping the monster on the outside known as Courtland Sutton. With Tennessee likely stacking the box against a strong Denver running game, the Broncos may have to win the game through the air and could see Fant with some great numbers.
Defenses: New York Jets (vs Buffalo) and Philadelphia Eagles (vs Washington)
It may be odd to see the Jets as an option against Josh Allen and a promising Bills’ offense, but it could pan out to be a shaky Week 1 for a Buffalo team that is young and still growing. That does not necessarily mean that they will struggle and get blown out by New York, but it would not be a surprise to see the aggressive Jets’ defense cause a few turnovers to turn the tide of Sunday’s battle. Meanwhile, the Eagles are probably the must-start defense of the weak in matching up against a poor Washington offense. With Darius Slay now with Philadelphia in order to help out a secondary that was inconsistent in 2019, the Eagles should be able to cause some chaos for Dwayne Haskins and the Washington offense in their first divisional matchup of the year. Throw in the off-the-field extracurricular activities that have been dominating the headlines in Washington in recent weeks, and this could be an explosive week for the Eagles’ defense.
Fanatical Focus, Week 1
New York Jets’ Quarterback, Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold and the New York Jets face a make-or-break year in a battle for the top of the AFC East (via Sports Illustrated).
With Tom Brady now in Tampa Bay after nearly two decades with the New England Patriots, the AFC East throne appears to be wide-open for all four members of the division. And while the Miami Dolphins’ youth resurgence, the Bills’ promising play on both sides of the ball, and the Patriots’ advanced experience have garnered plenty of attention, the New York Jets have taken a backseat in headlines across the country with some low expectations entering the new season.
With that being said, if these Jets want to make some noise and compete in the division with the other three teams, their key contributor will likely come in the form of quarterback Sam Darnold. After leading the Jets to a 7-6 record in 13 starts in his second season, Darnold enters the new year with the assumption from many that the Jets will sit near the bottom of the standings. But after throwing for 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his second full season as a starter, while also dealing with a limited offensive cast and a depleted offensive line, does Darnold have another gear that he can find that would propel him toward the top of the quarterback ranks? Let’s dive a little deeper, especially as he enters the third year of his career behind an upgraded offensive line and some new weapons on offense such as Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman.
For the sake of the Week 1 matchup between the Jets and Bills, let’s look at how Darnold’s short career matches up with Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen. Allen, after leading the Bills to a surprising playoff berth in 2019, has shown some promise in his two-year career so far, but has been criticized for a lack of accuracy and a knack for being reckless with the ball in big moments. Nevertheless, Allen appears to be recognized as a rising star at this point in his career, and the 2020 season will really show how much room he still has to grow as a quarterback. But even though Darnold has not led the Jets to the playoffs yet, is there actually a major gap between him and Allen? The Bills’ signal caller certainly deserves recognition as a superior runner with his sheer size and athleticism, but Darnold does own key early advantages in completion percentages (59.9% to Allen’s 56.3%), yardage (5,889 to Allen’s 5,163), passing touchdowns (36 to Allen’s 30) and quarterback rating (81.1 to Allen’s 78.2) in their short careers. Now Allen does have a much better career winning percentage and has turned the ball over at a lesser clip than the former USC standout, but their Week 1 battle should provide a closer look at which player owns the key advantage from the 2018 NFL Draft.
Depending on which angle you take from this, Darnold could be either labeled as overrated or underrated after being drafted third overall in the 2018 Draft. But with that being said, this makes the 2020 season a major factor in deciding the future of the New York Jets. If Darnold doesn’t improve at all or remains the same player he has been for the first two years of his career, the Jets could choose to move on eventually and not include him as part of their long-term plans. But if Darnold takes a big jump forward and leads the Jets near or inside the AFC playoff picture, New York could finally have another rising star on their hands at the quarterback position.