NFL Weekly Wonder, Edition #6
By Peyton Schultze
Week 5 was surely an odd week in the NFL, with some very surprising outcomes all week long from Thursday until Tuesday.
Full of close finishes and questionable late game decisions from several head coaches, last week surely was one of the most eventful stretches of the young season. From the Dolphins’ dominant outing on the road against the reigning NFC champions to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ dramatic late game drive to secure a win for Seattle on Sunday Night Football, there were plenty of huge moments that could have some serious consequences late in the year found all the league. And with the next week of games coming up on deck, the attention in the league suddenly turns toward a Week 6 schedule full of must-win matchups for several teams in the NFL.
So what will we see in Week 6? Are the Panthers ready to take the next step into the NFC playoff picture with a potentially key win over the Bears on Sunday? Will the Browns or Steelers pull out a huge win with major playoff implications on the line this weekend? Will the Cowboys be able to recover from the injury to Dak Prescott with a win on Monday Night Football? And how will the battle of Brady and Rodgers unfold now that it has shifted to Tampa Bay? Let’s look ahead at a Week 6 slate full of highly-anticipated action featuring some big-time matchups.
Game-by-Game Looks
Sunday: Denver @ New England (-9.5), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
One of the most confusing early morning games of Week 6 takes place in New England, a week after both teams were originally supposed to play. Cam Newton appears poised to return against a team that has been Superman’s kryptonite over the course of his career, but head coach Bill Belichick should benefit from having two weeks to prepare for an injured Denver team that is now dealing with controversy surrounding Melvin Gordon. The return of quarterback Drew Lock will help out the Broncos, but the Patriots appear set to get back on track with a home win on Sunday.
Denver: 20 New England: 26
Sunday: Chicago @ Carolina (-2.5), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
This is a huge game for two teams who have entered the early-season playoff picture in a competitive NFC, especially after huge wins last week for each squad. The Panthers have been a major surprise under head coach Matt Rhule and with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater playing so well right now, but it is fair to wonder how long their run will continue given the weak opponents on their schedule. But the Bears will respond with a little extra time from their Thursday night game, resulting in a nice day from Nick Foles and the Bears’ offense against an inconsistent Carolina defense that tends to play down to their competition.
Carolina: 21 Chicago: 23
Sunday: Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-8.0), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow finally put together the first clunker of his NFL career in Week 5 against a raucous Ravens’ defense, which sent the Bengals to 1-3-1 and to the bottom of the AFC North. But against a Colts’ team that is coming off a disappointing loss of their own against the Browns last weekend, maybe the Bengals have a shot of responding this weekend even though they’re about to face off against another elite defense. A few plays from the Colts’ D hold us off from taking the Bengals in an upset, but expect a down-to-the-wire finish in Indy.
Cincinnati: 17 Indianapolis: 20
Sunday: Detroit (-3.5) @ Jacksonville, 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Coming off an early season bye week should be a big addition for Detroit team looking to get on a bit of a run, which could be a possibility considering their upcoming schedule. The Jaguars are not nearly as bad as many people once thought they would be this season with quarterback Gardner Minshew under center, but their inconsistency is something that makes them a very tough pick from week-to-week. But with Detroit’s offense getting more and more healthy and head coach Matt Patricia increasingly fighting for his job, expect the Lions to roll on Sunday with a much-needed win.
Jacksonville: 23 Detroit: 35
Sunday: Atlanta @ Minnesota (-3.5), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
If not for the late-game heroics from quarterback Russell Wilson and wide reciever DK Metcalf, Minnesota deserved to win a hard-fought battle last Sunday night against the Seahawks. But here the Vikings are, sitting at a measly 1-4 even though they have played much better as the weeks have gone by. Lucky for them, a struggling Atlanta team heads up north for this weekend’s matchup, which has a great chance of finishing in a victory for the Vikings. Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s offense will put up a fight against Minnesota’s pass defense, but expect Kirk Cousins’ best game of the season so far against a shaky defense on the opposite side.
Atlanta: 27 Minnesota: 33
Sunday: Washington @ New York G. (-3.0), 10:00 AM PT, FOX
Quarterback Daniel Jones has fallen short of expectations in his second year in New York as of now, but a matchup with the team that he torched twice last year may give the Giants a chance this weekend at home. But among these two teams that are a combined 1-9 in the early part of the season, there is only one true reliable factor week in and week out: Washington’s strong pass rush. This has a chance to shift the tide of the game completely, and a win with quarterback Alex Smith at the helm could quickly give Washington’s season a bit of a spark in a lousy NFC East that is anyone’s to win.
New York G.: 17 Washington: 24
Sunday: Baltimore (-7.5) @ Philadelphia, 10:00 AM PT, CBS
The Eagles put up a valiant fight last weekend against the Steelers, but the Ravens appear to be right back in track in the win column after two straight dominant wins over inferior competition. The Eagles are ultimately closer to the Washington Football Team or the Bengals (the Ravens’ last two opponents) than their last opponent in the Steelers, which should be a very troublesome sign given the fact that the Ravens’ defense caused pure havoc last week. Expect Lamar Jackson’s best game of the year through the air with four touchdown passes of his own in an easy win for Baltimore on the road versus Philly.
Philadelphia: 20 Baltimore: 45
Sunday: Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-3.5), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
A fierce battle of AFC North rivals highlights the early game slate in Week 6, where the Browns and Steelers will be looking for major statement wins of their own on Sunday. The Browns’ offense is red-hot right now and they’ll face their toughest task yet in one of the league’s best defenses on Sunday, so it will be interesting to monitor how quarterback Baker Mayfield plays against an elite group out for a vengeance from last season’s brouhaha. The Steelers are favored in this spot, but their undefeated record comes at the expense of a schedule that only has three combined wins on the season. Take the streaky Browns on the road in the upset of the week.
Pittsburgh: 31 Cleveland: 38
Sunday: Houston @ Tennessee (-3.0), 10:00 AM PT, CBS
After being mocked for two weeks following their COVID-19 exposure, the Titans came out like a team on a mission on Tuesday night versus the red-hot Buffalo Bills. Proving themselves once again as a contender in the AFC, the Titans look like the favorite in the AFC South even as they’ll head into a game against the rival Texans. Houston has not been great to start the season, but they are not nearly as bad as their record may indicate with former head coach Bill O’Brien now out of the picture. Quarterback Deshaun Watson alone makes this game tough to pick, but the Titans should be able to stay undefeated once again with a nice divisional win on Sunday.
Houston: 23 Tennessee: 24
Sunday: New York J. @ Miami (-9.0), 1:05 PM PT, CBS
Miami as nine point favorites against an AFC East rival? You bet. With Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold still questionable for this week’s matchup, New York has almost no confidence heading into a matchup with a team that has played great over the past month. Nobody really knows just how good this Miami team is yet, but they appear to be rolling on both sides of the ball after a huge upset on the road last week in San Francisco. The Jets have to put together a nice performance eventually in order to somehow inspire the fan base and the future of the organization, but this is not that opportunity; Miami rolls to an easy win on Sunday afternoon.
New York J.: 13 Miami: 28
Sunday: Green Bay (-2.0) @ Tampa Bay, 1:25 PM PT, FOX
Green Bay has been the most impressive team in the league to start the year on both sides of the ball, playing solid defense and causing turnovers on defense in addition to their absolutely outstanding play on offense right now. The key matchup in this game is obvious: the battle of two of the best quarterbacks ever in Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. Brady has not played bad by any means this season, but the Bucs’ appear to still be trying to find their footing on offense at the moment. Meanwhile, Rodgers is in complete control right now and has the Pack firing on all cylinders right now. Coming off an early bye week, expect somewhat of a slow start, but a huge second half from one of the league’s best teams in Green Bay.
Tampa Bay: 24 Green Bay: 34
Sunday: Los Angeles R. (-3.0) @ San Francisco, 5:20 PM PT, NBC
Among the unexpected teams off to hot starts in 2020, the Los Angeles Rams appear to be the team that has the best chance of going on a run back to the Super Bowl. With great defensive play and Jared Goff spreading the ball nicely on offense right now, LA looks like a real contender in the conference despite being in a competitive division. But the Rams need a statement win, and what better way is there to make that happen than with a win on the road in primetime against the reigning NFC champions? The 49ers are beat up right now and appear out of sync, which should give the Rams an opportunity to sneak by in a relatively comfortable win on Sunday Night Football.
San Francisco: 20 Los Angeles R.: 30
Monday: Kansas City @ Buffalo (No Line), 2:00 PM PT, FOX/NFL Network
The oddsmakers have not reached a final decision on this Monday night battle, but expect the Chiefs to be favored by around seven points by the time kickoff rolls around. The Bills had a very concerning performance in Week 5 against a fellow AFC contender in the Tennessee Titans, so their matchup with the defending champions should show us a lot about how good this team really is. But the prospect of the Chiefs losing back-to-back games seems unlikely at best with Patrick Mahomes under center and with the Buffalo defense struggling, so take Kansas City comfortably this weekend.
Buffalo: 23 Kansas City: 34
Monday: Arizona (-2.5) @ Dallas, 5:15 PM PT, ESPN
Our least favorite bet of the week comes on the primetime Monday Night Football game of the week, where Arizona will be looking to make a big-time statement against America’s Team. This game will come down to one single thing: turnovers. Both teams have the ability to move the ball a ton on offense against these defense, but the team who wins the turnover battle will surely be in the driver’s seat to pull out a win. Sure, quarterback Kyler Murray has had problems in that department early in the season, but he is coming off a massive game in Week 5, while Dallas no longer has their starting quarterback under center after a tough injury. Arizona pulls it out by a thread, but be very careful in taking them with confidence.
Dallas: 27 Arizona: 28
Daily Fantasy Targets
Quarterbacks: Kyler Murray (Dallas Cowboys) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Miami Dolphins)
If Kyler Murray is going to have his coming-out party as a star quarterback in the NFL, a Monday Night Football matchup with a terrible Dallas Cowboys’ defense could be a great chance for an epic game from Arizona’s signal caller. Murray has been plagued by turnovers so far in 2020, but he has also shown flashes of true superstardom, including a dynamic performance in last week’s game versus the Jets. Throw in the fact that Dallas just made the New York Giants’ offense look halfway competent, and things look outstanding for an agile young star looking to put his team on the map in 2020. Meanwhile, with the way that the Dolphins’ starting quarterback is playing right now, how does anyone not at least consider a start for the veteran journeyman? Fitzpatrick has looked excellent for parts of the young season and appears to be working wonders for a young Miami offense that is beginning to realize its’ own potential, which could lead to consistent production for as long as he holds onto the starting gig. With a shaky Jets’ defense coming into the frame for this weekend’s divisional matchup in Miami, Fitzpatrick could once again find plenty of success through the air alongside his solid group of pass-catching weapons that are playing well right now.
Running Backs: D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions) and Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts)
Likely the riskiest pick we’ve ever put out in this series, Detroit running back D’Andre Swift could see an increase in production this weekend against a Jacksonville defense that has struggled to stop the run. Swift has not had a great start to his NFL career by any means, but he has at least produced well as a pass catcher out of the backfield for the Lions. And now coming off a bye week that could have him more comfortable with their playbook after an unorganized offseason, Swift could be in line to be the Lions’ lead back on Sunday alongside Adrian Peterson. The Lions have to use their rookie running back much more if they want to find more success on offense, and Sunday could be an ideal opportunity to unleash their young playmaker. Our other running back target for the week is also a rookie, but one that has found a lot of success so far in his young career. Jonathan Taylor has jumped out of the gate for the Colts’ offense behind a great offensive line, and his matchup against a weak Bengals’ defense should be inspiring for fantasy players. At this point, Taylor is the focal point of the Indianapolis offense for as long as Philip Rivers continues to struggle, so the volume and touchdown possibilities should certainly be there on Sunday for the Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Wide Receivers: Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams) and Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings)
Roberts Woods consistently remains one of the most underrated receivers in all of football, so a primetime outing against an injured 49ers’ defense could give himself another chance to re-establish himself as one of the best at the position again. Quarterback Jared Goff has played very well to start the season by quickly getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers, which is a great sign for Woods against a team that he burnt in 2019. Yards after the catch and getting involved early in the game plan are key for Woods, as he tends to generate bigger fantasy outputs in weeks where he is the focal point of the Rams’ offense. That should be the case this weekend in another winnable game for Los Angeles against a divisional rival. And with the way that Adam Thielen is playing in Minnesota right now, how does anyone not start him? The star pass catcher has been dominant to start the season as the Vikings’ clear #1 target, and with a matchup on the way against an awful Atlanta secondary, he should be able to produce huge numbers again. This is a must-win game for the Vikings, so expect them to get the ball into Thielen’s hands early and often with Dalvin Cook likely sidelines for Sunday.
Tight Ends: Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) and Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens)
Tight end is an especially top-heavy fantasy position right now, so being a little obvious with some of the picks appear to be the best way to go. However, in the case of Mike Gesicki, creativity and hopefulness are just as much of factors as projected points. The talented Dolphins’ tight end is certainly an inconsistent fantasy target that can have some huge games or some no-shows, but a favorable matchup with a Jets’ defense that has allowed nice games from tight ends all year long should be intriguing. Pairing Fitzpatrick with Gesicki might even be a better play for many if he targets him in the red zone, so expect one of those “boom” games from Gesicki this weekend. However, one of the league’s best tight ends also has a favorable matchup this weekend. Mark Andrews is essentially the top receiving target for the Ravens’ passing attack, and he should be able to feast on a defense that has struggled against many passing attacks all year long. It might be tough for him to replicate his explosion from a week ago against the Bengals, but Andrews may be the top tight end target in all of fantasy football for this week alone against a poor Philadelphia secondary.
Defenses: Washington (vs New York G.) and Detroit (vs Jacksonville)
It’s tough to go out and pick on the New York Giants’ offense, but their alarming turnover problem is becoming somewhat of a lingering issue that is setting them back on a weekly basis. With Daniel Jones continuing to be sloppy with the ball and struggling to hit a ton of big plays behind a weak offensive line, New York could be in trouble this weekend against a lethal front seven in Washington. Jones has found success against this team in the past, but he should be in for a long day with the way the New York offense is playing right now. If looking for a defense that you may be able to get at a bargain though, look toward a Detroit team that is fresh after coming off an early-season bye week. The Lions’ defense is still gelling with many players funneling into the lineup over the past offseason, but head coach and defensive specialist Matt Patricia should be able to gear up his unit for a battle with a very young offense on Sunday. Playing a defense against the Jaguars is always a boom-or-bust due to the offense’s potential and inconsistency from week-to-week, but the Lions have plenty working in their favor that should inspire confidence in a nice performance on defense this weekend.
Fanatical Focus
Cardinals’ Quarterback Kyler Murray
As promising as any young quarterback in the league, Kyler Murray won last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year after an impressive first-year following his Heisman winning season at Oklahoma. With creative offensive head coach Kliff Kingsbury at the helm and with a solid group of weapons around him in Arizona, Murray has a gleaming opportunity this season to make his own mark on the league and lead the Cardinals back into the playoffs. But will he continue to rise above expectations, or will his turnover problem continue to set back the offense from reaching their potential?
The Arizona signal caller was last week’s NFC Offensive Player of the Week after a phenomenal 380 yards passing, one touchdown, and 31 extra yards on the ground against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. But even though it came against a poor New York defense that is still struggling to find their footing, Murray played with much more swagger and confidence than he had shown in prior outings versus Carolina and Detroit. So what does this show us? For one, it is becoming more and more clear that the Cardinals’ offense is still a work-in-progress under head coach Kliff Kingsbury and with new wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins on the roster, similar to how the Browns were with Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. in 2019. While this Arizona squad does appear to be much more functional and further ahead than last year’s Browns, the chemistry between one of the game’s best wide receivers and a young quarterback is a key storyline to follow in the desert as the season moves along.
Which brings us to Monday night’s matchup between these Arizona Cardinals and the injury-plagued Dallas Cowboys. The lights are never more bright on Monday Night Football than when the Cowboys are playing at home inside the famed AT&T Stadium in Arlington, and the opportunity for a signature win on the road is always on the table for the opposition. This appears to be the exact case for Murray and company, who could put up a massive amount of points against a terrible Dallas secondary if they can start fast and run their offense with poise and confidence early. One thing that has slowed Arizona early in the season on offense has been the somewhat ineffective play of their two running backs in Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake, who have jumped out to slow starts very often. Although Edmonds should be receiving more touches than he has been getting, Arizona appears to be at their best when moving Murray around in play-action and on the run outside of the pocket, which caused trouble all evening long in their surprise Week 1 win over the rival 49ers. So what is the key on Monday night for the Cardinals? Exactly that, as Coach Kingsbury must be able to conjure up some play calls to get Kyler moving around and that make this offense unpredictable and elusive to defend.
If this is the case, and the Cardinals jump out to a lead early on Monday, Murray could have the first signature win of his NFL career under the primetime background of Monday Night Football in Dallas. Distant MVP chatter surrounded the second-year star throughout the offseason after a nice rookie season in the desert, but he has yet to find that big moment that often propels a player into the MVP conversation. Two years ago, an impressive no-look throw and a huge game at home versus the Ravens vaulted Patrick Mahomes into the MVP conversation, and he never looked back. Last year, Lamar Jackson went on the road to Seattle and pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the entire season, helping Jackson soar to the top of MVP ballots. Can Murray pull off a highlight-worthy run and pull of a huge win on Monday against a talented and well-recognized Dallas squad? We’ll have to find out, but it should be a fun night in store for Cardinals fans around the country.