Primetime Picture Week 11: Patriots @ Eagles
By Peyton Schultze
The last time New England and Philadelphia met was in a wild Super Bowl LII matchup, in which the Eagles were able to secure their first championship in franchise history in one of the craziest Super Bowls in recent memory (via Las Vegas Review-Journal).
Welcome to the latest edition of Primetime Picture, our weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. In celebration of the league’s 100th season, we have another key Super Bowl rematch in the form of a Sunday joust in the wintery depths of South Philadelphia. On Sunday afternoon, Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots head on the road following a bye week for a big game against young quarterback Carson Wentz and the inconsistent, yet dangerous, Philadelphia Eagles (CBS, 1:25 PST).
Seeking revenge for their crushing Super Bowl LII loss to the Eagles in U.S. Bank Stadium, the Patriots head into this Week 11 matchup fresh off a bye week that could benefit them in the long run. The last time the league saw New England take the field, the Patriots were throttled by the red-hot Baltimore Ravens in impressive fashion on the big stage of Sunday Night Football. With Lamar Jackson running wild all over the Patriots’ defense and tons of pressure in the pocket on Tom Brady all night long, the Patriots suffered their first loss of the season in a rather extreme fashion. However, New England’s bye week comes at a very ideal time off their first loss, as the Patriots have had two weeks to help develop their stagnant offense that lacks really any kind of superstar talent outside of Tom Brady and Julian Edelman. Other than this, the Patriots have had a truly fine season that has a chance to be historically great. If New England can continue their exceptional play on defense to compliment an evolving offensive attack led by Brady, Bill Belichick’s 2019 Patriots have a great shot to go the distance and get right back into the Super Bowl. However, an improved conference and a tough upcoming schedule looms over them, and we will surely find out what these Patriots are really made of over the next couple of weeks against some of the league’s best teams.
Meanwhile, the Eagles will hope to regain some of their magic from that stupendous Super Bowl game back in February of 2018. This season, the Eagles have mostly been fine, but this is a team that many predicted to head back to the Super Bowl to represent the NFC. What has instead transpired has been anything but ideal, as Philadelphia has not found their footing on both sides of the ball and heads into the weekend’s matchup without a true identity. However, the Eagles did capture perhaps their biggest win of the season on the road against a solid Buffalo Bills team before heading into a bye week of their own, and they will surely be motivated to beat the league’s most notable dynasty in recent memory for the second time in as many years. Regardless, the Eagles will need better production from virtually all of their superstar talent, who have put together nice seasons individually, but have not quite clicked as a unit altogether. This begins and ends with quarterback Carson Wentz and his offense. If Wentz can right the ship and lead his troops, including former Pro Bowl studs such as Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery, to reaching the potential they are capable of, this is a team that nobody will want to see as the season moves along and into January. Head coach Doug Pederson has a tough task in front of him as the Eagles try to make a late-season run toward the top of the terrible NFC East, and his surmountable start begins with a mighty matchup at home on Sunday afternoon against the defending champs.
The Patriots struggled on both sides of the ball in their last appearance, but are now coming off a much-needed bye week for a late-season run toward the postseason (via Flipboard).
While the Patriots’ offense has not been quite as great compared to their typical standards, this is still a group that has as much potential as any group in the NFL on offense. Led by Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots’ offense has been good for the most part, but certainly not elite by any means. However, their success has not been met without its fair share of criticism. With one of the worst offensive lines that New England has seen in recent memory, the Patriots’ offensive linemen have struggled in pass protection and in the run game for a large part of the season. As this is a major concern with the aging Brady under center, New England will need to take a major leap forward in that department if they want to reach their full potential. In addition, the Patriots need to find more offensive connections among their skill positions. Although players such as Julian Edelman, James White, and Sony Michel have been key contributors all season long, the Patriots will need other receiving talents such as Mohamad Sanu and N’Keal Harry to step up in a big way if the Patriots want to be one of the better offenses in the league. New England still has a ways to go on offense before the playoffs begin, but watch out for this group if they can get rolling after their key mid-season bye week.
However, perhaps no other group in the league has been as dominant as the Patriots’ outstanding defense. Although they are coming off their worst performance of the season against Baltimore, New England has been able to purely dominate on defense all season long with the ability to get after the opposing quarterback, create turnovers, and limit the amount of big plays for offenses. With tons of studs on the field such as DPOTY candidate Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, and Jaime Collins, New England has some rare depth on the defensive side of the ball that very few offenses have been able to match up with. Combining these talents with the superior defensive game planning and coaching from head coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots have found some serious success that has their defense ranking as a potential all-time unit. Although the Patriots’ defense will face some tough challenges over the next several weeks against some elite quarterbacks in the league, New England’s experience and fundamentally sound skills have given them a rare ability to put up their “A” game against some of the best players in the league. There’s still several more weeks of football until the playoffs begin, but this group looks like one of the best defenses in not only Patriot history, but potentially even NFL history.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Eagles, but a win on Sunday has potential to turn their entire season around (via Flipboard).
Carson Wentz has shown true glimpses of being a MVP candidate when he is healthy and on the field, but he truly needs some help from his supporting cast on offense if he wants to return to the ranks of one of the best signal callers in all of football. With his main perimeter targets on the outside in Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery having down years compared to their typical standards, Wentz will need his playmakers to start playing at the Pro Bowl level they are capable of at if they want to rank among the class of the NFC. In addition to this, look for young players such as Dallas Goedert and Mack Hollins to have increased roles in the second half of the season for the Birds, as Wentz may turn to other players on the offense to set up and make some key plays. With all of that being said, Philadelphia has found a ton of success all season long when getting the ball into the hands of their solid running back duo of Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders. If Howard and Sanders can run behind a great offensive line at a continuously high level, the Eagles could finally find a successful offensive formula for this season that thrives off running the ball and using play-action passing in order to complete shot plays down the field. The Eagles’ offense is not an elite unit by any means right now, but Wentz and the rest of the boys from Philly could see more success as the season moves toward winter if they commit to the run game and feed their exciting running backs.
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has shown some true flashes of immense potential all season long, but is looking to put their efforts together for several consecutive weeks. One major reason for this inconsistency has been their poor play in the secondary outside of veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins, where the defense has been beaten over the top at a far-too-often clip. If the Eagles could shore up some of their struggles in the defensive back-end, this group has potential to really improve as a unit on defense. However, despite their struggles against the pass in the secondary, the Eagles have been able to find a ton of success among their very solid group of linebackers and defensive linemen. As always, the group is led by All-Pro talent Fletcher Cox, whose rare skillset has him ranking among the best players in all of football when healthy. If the Eagles are able to keep playing well on the defensive front and in the trenches, this is a team that has the ability to get on a run and get hot heading toward the postseason. There’s still plenty of holes the Eagles have to clean up in order to rank as one of the best defenses in the NFC, but Philadelphia has a roster full of studs that could make some noise as the season move along.
Tom Brady has not had a typically-dominant statistical season compared to his lofty standards, but is still as dangerous as any quarterback in the NFL as the league heads into the stretch run (via Flipboard).
Patriots’ Keys to the Game: Find a New Brady/WR Connection and Make Sure Wentz Stays in the Pocket
Even though the offense has been solid for most of the season, New England’s passing attack has not been nearly as lethal this season without a legit #2 option behind slot receiver Julian Edelman. With the addition of Mohamed Sanu from Atlanta, the Patriots have had a chance to build up their passing game over the bye week and could flash some better execution against a weak Eagles’ secondary on Sunday afternoon. With that being said, Brady needs some help from Edelman, Sanu, and his group of weapons on the outside. With future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski retired and completely out of the picture (for now), the Patriots need another player to step up and force defenses to focus their attention somewhere else, which could allow for the Patriots’ running game and quick passing attack to evolve into a more than capable unit. This weekend is a great opportunity to find that brand-new connection between Brady and a wide receiver, and it will be interesting to see how the champs attempt to expose Philly’s weak play among their corners and safeties.
It is hard to say that the Patriots’ defense has any main key to the game based on how great they have been all season long, but Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does present some matchup problems that could give New England some trouble. New England’s defense did struggle mightily for the first time all season in their last time out against an explosive Ravens’ offense, and the Eagles also present some of that dynamic potential that Baltimore displayed two weeks ago. Although not nearly as quick and athletic as Lamar Jackson, Wentz is great when he can create his own play and move out of the pocket when under pressure. With this, Wentz often looks to either run the ball for big yardage or to take a deep shot down the field for a big play once he escapes the pocket, which is something that could beat the Patriots in man-to-man coverage. New England must put a large amount of focus on keeping Wentz in the pocket and forcing pressure right into his face, which could lead to several sacks or errant throws from the quarterback who loves to keep plays alive. If the Patriots are able to limit Wentz’s effectiveness from the pocket and force the quarterback into short throws for minimal yardage, New England will have a huge advantage with how well their defense is playing right now. However, if Philadelphia can generate big yardage on offense due to Wentz’s big play ability outside of the pocket, this game could be very close and come down to a few important plays in a tight 4th quarter.
The Eagles have found some success in the ground game in recent weeks, but could face some major challenges against an outstanding Patriot defense (via Tuscon.com).
Eagles’ Keys to the Game: Run the Ball With Force and Limit the Patriots’ Long Drives
The Eagles’ passing game has certainly had their fair share of moments so far this season, but their two biggest wins of the season against the Packers and Bills were largely due to their ability to run the football behind a powerful offensive line. With the solid backfield duo of power back Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders, the Eagles have been able to find a winning formula if they stick to the ground game and punish opposing defenses. In addition, if the Patriots’ defense has had any weakness so far this season, it has been their tendency in struggling to stop the run. This flaw was extremely obvious in their last game against Baltimore, as the Ravens were able to run the ball right through the Patriots’ defense for big yards all night long. Even the week before that at home in Foxborough, the Browns were able to get some big plays via the legs of Nick Chubb, who put together a solid performance outside of two key fumbles. If the Eagles are able to run the ball at a high level and control the clock to keep Brady off the field while doing so, the Eagles can hang in this game and possibly even win in the end. However, if Philadelphia doesn’t run the ball and relies too much on Wentz to get them over the top against a lethal passing defense, the Eagles could be in some major trouble at home on Sunday afternoon.
Philadelphia’s defense is a shell of the unit that it was during their Super Bowl season, but this is still a good defense capable of putting together a great performance on any given Sunday. They’ll certainly need that type of performance against the AFC-leading Patriots on Sunday, and they will especially need to make sure Brady and the Pats don’t string together some long drives that wear down the Eagles’ defense. If New England is able to control the clock and drive down the field with ease, Philly’s defense will lose a lot of confidence and likely trail for most of the afternoon against the great quarterback and his offense. However, if the Eagles can make some big plays on third down and hassle Brady to get rid of the ball quicker than he wants, the Eagles could legitimately make some noise on Sunday. Nevertheless, even though the Patriots’ offensive line is one of their worst in recent memory, it will be very tough for Philadelphia to get to Brady with his excellent quick release. Yet Baltimore and Cleveland have once again provided the formula of getting to Brady in recent weeks, and it will be up to the Eagles’ defense to replicate that same type of success if they want to rattle Brady. This is a matchup that could decide the game on Sunday, just as it did in Super Bowl LII, and it will be a treat to watch Brady and the Patriots’ offense compete against a defense that made just a few more big plays in their last timeless appearance on the field together.
It could be tough on the road in a hostile environment, but look for the Patriots to get it done with a win on Sunday afternoon (via Flipboard).
Prediction: New England Patriots (27) - Philadelphia Eagles (17)
This could be a season-changing game for the Eagles, who could use a big win at home against a great team in order to propel the team forward for the rest of the season. With New England showing cracks two weeks ago and with the Eagles’ roster much more healthy coming off their bye week, Philadelphia has a golden opportunity to make a statement win to the rest of the NFL that proves that they are still a Super Bowl contender and the top dog in the NFC East. However, as always, it will take a complete effort to top the Patriots once again, who are also healthy and ready to go coming off their own bye week. In a rematch of the climatic Super Bowl LII from 2018, this game has potential to be a true thriller once again. With two great quarterbacks and superstars on both sides of the ball for both teams, this has a chance to be an outstanding matchup that could come down to a few key plays over the course of the game. Will Brady and the Patriots return to their winning ways once again and get their revenge on the road in Lincoln Financial Field? Or will Carson Wentz and the Eagles be able to find their Foles-like magic from two season ago, resulting in their most important victory of the season?
With all of that being said, this is a game that New England typically wins. Coming off a bye week in his Patriot career, Bill Belichick has a 14-5 record in the team’s first game after the week of rest, and New England has always shown poise in big moments against hungry teams. The Patriots usually thrive with their backs against the wall, and many in the league are looking at the Patriots as potential frauds with plenty of holes on their roster after the loss to the Ravens. While they were beneficiaries of a weak early-season schedule and still have some major holes on their offense (particularly at tight end), these Patriots are not frauds by any means. In fact, the Patriots are still the favorite to represent the AFC this year and even win the Super Bowl down in South Beach, even with tougher teams in the conference this season. New England’s defense will return to their prior form on Sunday against a team that doesn’t totally know what they know what to do on offense, and the Pats’ offense will make several big plays against the Philly defense with two weeks to prepare. Look for Tom Brady to have his best game of the year against a weak Eagles’ secondary, as the Patriots will roll to their ninth win of the season and stand at top of their division and conference alike.
Betting: New England (-3.5) @ Philadelphia
After numerous disappointments all season long, it’s hard to imagine Philadelphia putting together a heroic performance on Sunday night, even coming off their bye week. With that being said, New England has been the AFC’s best team all season long and seems like an easy pick this weekend with a favorable spread that may be a little small to ignore. Brady and the Patriots have always been great off bye weeks in the regular season and postseason, and that type of intense preparation should once again be apparent in the rematch of the 2018 Super Bowl in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been shaky for the majority of the season, as evident in their last primetime appearance is a bashing Sunday Night Football game versus the Cowboys, and it’s hard to imagine this team putting it all together for one big time game against elite competition. Take the Patriots this weekend with a ton of confidence, as they should be able to roll into Lincoln Financial Field with a dominant performance on Sunday.