Thanksgiving Primetime Picture Week 13: Raiders @ Chiefs
By Peyton Schultze
Flying under the radar in the AFC are Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off a much-needed bye week in Week 12 (via Newsweek).
Welcome to the latest edition of Primetime Picture, our weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. In celebration of the upcoming holiday on Thursday, this highly-anticipated AFC West matchup comes between two familiar foes who have had some not-so-friendly encounters at the table throughout their history. On Sunday afternoon, former Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr and the surprising Oakland Raiders head to the Midwest for a massive AFC West battle with 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium (1:25 PST, CBS).
Last year’s Raiders were one of the most notable trainwrecks in the league on and off the field, which carried over into the offseason and the 2019 preseason. With plenty of controversy surrounding the team due to Antonio Brown’s antics and the Raiders’ dysfunction in the front office before the start of the regular season, all hope for success seemed lost. But then things starting changing. The Raiders (6-5) started winning again. Coming out of nowhere and entering the AFC playoff picture as a fringe Wild Card team, Oakland has shocked the world in Jon Gruden’s second season in his second stint as the head coach of the Silver and Black. A lot of this sudden success has to do with the awesome play of rookie running back Josh Jacobs (957 yards, 7 touchdowns), who is considered the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has transformed the dynamic of the Oakland offense. With a nasty offensive line, surprisingly solid pass rushers, and steady play from Derek Carr all season long, the Raiders have been much better than anyone could have expected over the course of the season. Even though a loss last week somewhat halted their momentum, this is a team that has defied the odds all year long and is hungry for a few upset wins over the best the league has to offer. It was originally supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Raiders as they prepare to head to Las Vegas next year; what has transpired has been nothing short of spectacular as the Raiders look to enter the Super Bowl conversation as a threat in the AFC.
The Patriots and Ravens may be considered the overwhelming favorites in the AFC at the moment, but do not sleep on the dynamic potential that the Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) still have as they try to get to this year’s Super Bowl in Miami. Coming off a bye week that has allowed them to heal up from several key injuries, the Chiefs will be at home once again this weekend as they try to make a late-season run toward the top of the conference. Although they lack a ton of big wins against great teams other than Baltimore, the Chiefs will quickly be tested from now until the end of the season. With that being said, the Chiefs have once again had massive success on offense when their superstar talents have been healthy. Led by last year’s MVP in Patrick Mahomes (19 TDs, 2 INTs), the Chiefs’ offense has been a potent unit once again in Andy Reid’s awesome offensive scheme. As long as Mahomes’ prior knee and ankle injuries can hold up without any issues, this is one of the league’s best offenses that defenses will struggle to match up with. However, the Chiefs are somewhat flawed at the moment with a struggling defense that has been far too inconsistent all year long. Although they have been able to sack opposing quarterbacks at a fair rate all season long, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed too many big plays and plenty of rushing yards all season long. They’ll need to fix those as they head into a tough two-week stretch against the Raiders and Patriots, where we will truly find out if the 2019 Chiefs are true Super Bowl contenders.
Even though they were upset by the Jets a week ago, the Raiders have been one of the biggest surprises in the league this season (via The Detroit News).
In their final season in Oakland, few could have predicted how potent this Raiders’ offense would become. Led by veteran quarterback Derek Carr, who has solidified his status as the Raiders’ quarterback for next season, the Raiders have been able to put up plenty of points on the scoreboard to keep them in games. Carr has taken his fair share of criticism in the past, but really seems to have taken the next step as a stable building block under center that the organization can work with. With that being said, it also helps that Carr has a great supporting cast that has thrived all year long. Behind the league’s most physically imposing offensive line, the Raiders have excelled at running the football with rookie running back Josh Jacobs. A modern-day Marcus Allen, Jacobs has been exactly what the Silver and Black needed on offense, bringing juice and intensity in the running game to excite their passionate fan base. This has worked wonders in Gruden’s creative offensive scheme, which has really started to take off again in his second year back with the Raiders. In addition, breakout tight end Darren Waller has become a great target for Carr, who also joins a solid receiving core with Tyrell Williams and Trevor Davis. The Raiders are trying to write a storybook ending for the city of Oakland before taking off for Vegas; will their offense be able to take off and lead this team to the playoffs in one last hurrah?
Many expected the Raiders’ defense to be one of the worst defensive groups in the league coming into the season. Although they are still not amazing by any stretch of the imagination, they are surely an improved group from a season ago and still have some major room to grow. One area where the Raiders have surprised a lot of people is up front of the defensive line, where players such as Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby have combined for 26.0 sacks. If Nick Bosa was not dominating for the unstoppable San Francisco 49ers, Crosby would be considered a favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, as he has been a dominant force that offensive lines have struggled to handle. Elsewhere, the Raiders have some solid players in the back end such as Lamarcus Joyner, Erik Harris, and Daryl Worley, who have had to step up with so many injuries to their corners and safeties. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther has had a great year dialing up blitzes and getting the most out of this limited defense, which shows how great of a job Coach Gruden’s staff has done this season in getting the most out of their players. The Raiders have an uphill climb to reach the playoffs this year, but their defense has shown promise that they can help right the ship with their recent play.
The Chiefs’ defense has been a mess all year, but they are coming off one of the best performances of the season in their last appearance versus the Chargers (via USA Today).
Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, oh my! One of the league’s best offenses, perhaps the best, resides in Kansas City, where Andy Reid once again has the Chiefs rolling. With Mahomes having another MVP-type season when he has been healthy and on the field, the potential for the Chiefs’ offense is still off the charts for as long as the 2019 MVP is playing. The quarterback is truly a generational talent and has a skillset that has not really been seen from any player in NFL history, giving the Chiefs’ offense a chance to put up more than 40 points against any defense on any given Sunday. However, this offense is not all about Mahomes and Reid. A very underrated offensive line has been awesome in pass protection when the unit has been healthy, while also being very productive while run blocking for a solid running back duo of Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy. In addition, one of the best receiving cores in the league makes life very easy for the young quarterback in his emergence as one of the best players in the league. While players such as Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins have been key contributors for Mahomes, All-Pro talents Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are two of the best at their respective positions. With Kelce and Hill once again putting together awesome seasons, the Chiefs are one of the most dynamic groups on offense in recent history with potential to take it to the house on any play. There’s a long way to go between now and the Super Bowl in Miami, but it is clear that the Chiefs have all they could ever ask for on the offensive side of the football.
However, for as great as the Chiefs’ offense has been, their defense has been as equally poor at times over the course of the season. Although they seem to be making some significant strides in the secondary with solid play from studs like Tyrann Mathieu and Kendall Fuller, the Chiefs struggle to stop the run against opposing offenses. In addition, with linebackers Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens failing to play their best football in the middle, the Kansas City defense has struggled to reach their potential under first-year Chief and veteran defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo. However, although they have not been spectacular all season long up front, the Chiefs are actually solid at rushing the passer with players such as Chris Jones and Frank Clark applying consistent pressure to quarterbacks. Ranking 8th in the league with 32.0 sacks, the Chiefs at least have one major strength that will help them compete against some elite offenses. Kansas City certainly does not have the best defense, but they have shown sign of significant improvement, such as in their last game versus Los Angeles. Coming off a bye week that allowed them to get healthy, they’ll need that same type of defensive energy from their last game in order to reel off some key wins in the conference before the playoffs begin.
The Raiders’ offense has actually become a formidable group, especially since rookie running back Josh Jacobs entered the picture (via Flipboard).
Raiders’ Keys to the Game: No Turnovers from Carr and Limiting the Chiefs’ Big Plays
With only six interceptions on the season, Derek Carr has had a very successful season under Jon Gruden’s creative offensive scheme. However, one-third of those interceptions came in a Week 2 battle at home against the Chiefs, which put Mahomes and the Kansas City offense back on the field with excellent field position. When it comes to beating the superstar quarterback and the Chiefs, the formula is very simple: don’t give him an inch. With positive field position or more opportunities to score, Mahomes has the ability to light up any defense in the league with his nearly unmatched skillset. This makes it imperative that Carr plays a clean game and doesn’t give the ball away to Kansas City defenders. If Carr struggles again on Sunday in a hostile environment, it could be an extremely long day for the Raiders. However, if he takes care of the football and is able to put together a few long drives for the Oakland offense, the Raiders could have a shot at one of the biggest upsets of the NFL season.
Just like any team’s key against the explosive Kansas City offense, the Raiders’ defense must not allow a flurry of big plays of more than 20 yards on Sunday if they want to win. With several dynamic playmakers on offense such as Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Damien Williams, the Chiefs are perhaps the toughest cover in the league. What is even more concerning is how limited this Raiders’ secondary is at the moment, as safety Karl Joseph was missed in the secondary last weekend after being hurt against the Chargers. If players such as Hill or Hardman can get behind the Raiders’ defense multiple times, Kansas City could have the way all day on their way to a win. Nevertheless, Oakland has been finding some success on defense recently when rushing the passer, which is vital if they want to limit the Chiefs’ offensive explosiveness. If the Raiders have one of their best performances of the season on defense by getting after Mahomes in the pocket and making sure that the Chiefs weapons don’t beat them over the top, this game could be up for grabs and come down to a few plays in the 4th quarter.
The deadly combo of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce has created one of the league’s best offenses in Kansas City (via NFLSpinZone).
Chiefs’ Keys to the Game: Find the Mahomes/Kelce Connection Again and Contain Jacobs on Defense
In the Chiefs’ last game on Monday night versus the Chargers, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce reminded the league once again that they are the premier QB/TE combination in the league. With seven catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown against a solid Chargers’ secondary, Kelce was able to stretch the field and come up with some clutch catches on third down on the way to a nice Kansas City win in Mexico City. Over his excellent seven-year career with the Chiefs, Kelce has often proven to be a flat out pest for the Raiders to contain, which makes the matchup this weekend very interesting. With Tyreek Hill’s speed and versatility on the outside taking up so much of the Raiders’ attention on defense, Patrick Mahomes should look in the tight end’s direction early and often against a soft Silver and Black secondary. If Mahomes takes care of the ball (as he usually does) and Kelce can have a big game on Sunday, the Chiefs should be able to put up over 30 points on offense against one of the league’s least talented defenses.
Although it has been a struggle to find consistency all season long for the Chiefs’ defense, they have scattered in some very good performances along the way. One of these performances happened to come on the road against the Raiders in Week 2, in which they forced Derek Carr to throw two key interceptions and sacked the quarterback three times in a simple 28-10 win. However, this Raiders’ offense is way more lethal than they were at that point in the early season, as they now have become one of the better teams at running the ball and taking care of the football. Matching up against a very good Chiefs’ offense, the Raiders will likely try to run out a similar ball control scheme that the Colts deployed in Week 5 to elongate drives and keep Mahomes off the field. This makes it vital that the Chiefs’ run defense has a monster game against Josh Jacobs, who is already one of the best running backs in the league. If Kansas City can hold the Raiders’ run game to under 100 yards and get Mahomes on the field as much as possible, the Chiefs should be able to secure their eighth win of the season on Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are due for a big win, so look for them to come out on top on Sunday against their divisional rival (via Sportscasting).
Prediction: Oakland Raiders (24) - Kansas City Chiefs (42)
Raiders. Chiefs. In a tale as old as time. One of the NFL’s fiercest and most storied rivalries enters a new chapter over the Thanksgiving weekend, with both divisional opponents fighting for their playoff lives. While the Chiefs have not been quite as dominant this season due to some key injuries and a tough schedule, it seems like they may be on the verge of a breakout as the playoffs loom in the distance. Especially with a healthy version of last year’s MVP now back in the lineup, it would not be a surprise to see Kansas City pull off a late-season run. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been the surprise story of the NFL season in Gruden’s second year back as head coach. Now, with a possible playoff charge in sight and with an intense battle with their rival coming up over the weekend, the Raiders have a chance to make a league-wide statement with a win over one of the NFL’s best teams. It’s a battle out west between two Super Bowl hopefuls, where only one gunslinger will come out on top.
However, this intense matchup may just happen at the wrong time for Oakland. Mahomes and the Chiefs are coming off a late-season bye week that could not be more ideal with their tough upcoming schedule, especially considering Mahomes’ prior health status. Meanwhile, the Raiders just found a way to lose to the miserable Jets on a road trip to New York, which may have derailed their chances at first place in the AFC West if they aren’t able to come up with a win this weekend. This stark contrast becomes an increasingly troubling sign for the Raiders, who were red-hot before they came crashing down to Earth in Week 12. In addition, Mahomes and the Chiefs had a phenomenal game against the Raiders in their last matchup in Week 2, when the Chiefs’ defense held the Raiders to only 10 points. This all adds up to trouble for the Raiders, and a potential win for the Chiefs on Sunday behind a raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium. Look for Mahomes to have three passing touchdowns and for the Chiefs’ defense to have one of their better games stopping the run against Josh Jacobs and the potent Raider running game in a decisive win for Kansas City in the AFC.
Betting: Kansas City (-10) vs Oakland
Yes, it is a massive number to bet. And yes, this is a matchup between two playoff hopefuls in the AFC. But in a season that is being dominated by headline grabbers such as Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson, it is quite easy to forget just how great Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense really is. With Mahomes at full health and with the Chiefs having the Raiders’ number in recent memory, this seems like an ideal scenario to bet on Kansas City. In addition to this, head coach Andy Reid is also 17-3 in his illustrious career coming off a bye, which is a great sign for the Chiefs’ chances this weekend. Jon Gruden will definitely have his Raiders playing hard on Sunday in a very meaningful game, but the Chiefs’ simply have too much on paper on offense for the Raiders to handle. Expect a massive game from the Chiefs at home on Sunday, especially in a stadium where the Raiders have struggled to find success in recent years. The Chiefs should find a way to prove themselves as the class of the AFC West once again on Sunday, so take Kansas City against their fierce West Coast rival with a fair amount of confidence.