Primetime Picture Week 5: Packers @ Cowboys
By Peyton Schultze
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers face a big test this weekend when they head to Dallas to matchup with the high-flying Cowboys (via Flipboard).
Welcome to the third edition of Primetime Picture, our new weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. For this weekend, future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head down to Dallas for a Texas-sized matchup with Ezekiel Elliott and the high-flying Cowboys this Sunday (1:25 PM PST, FOX).
After a dramatic and controversial 2018 season featuring a dissatisfied quarterback, plenty of key injuries, and the firing of their longtime head coach, the Green Bay Packers (3-1) are off to a much better start to kick off the NFL’s 100th season. Although Green Bay’s offense has struggled to put up some big points during Matt LaFleur’s first year as head coach, the Packers have been able to secure some nice wins over Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver early in the season. A large part of this has to do with a rejuvenated defense coordinated by Mike Pettine, whose aggressive style against the pass has helped the Packers shut down some solid quarterbacks. Despite their hot start, the Packers came crashing down to Earth a week ago on Thursday Night Football at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though quarterback Aaron Rodgers put forth a Herculean effort with 422 passing yards and two touchdowns in his best performance of the young season, the Packers’ offense struggled in the second half and could not seal the deal on a late drive. With under two minutes remaining and down by seven, Rodgers drove the Packers all the way down the field to the Eagles’ 1-yard line. From here, Green Bay elected to throw the ball and an errant Rodgers’ pass was tipped in the air and intercepted, all but sealing a crushing loss for Green Bay. Despite playing behind the friendly confines of Lambeau Field and limiting Cason Wentz and the Eagles’ lethal passing attack, Green Bay ultimately could not get over the hump on Thursday night and took their first loss of the season. Green Bay now heads down to Dallas for a massive matchup with the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, which has served as somewhat of a home away from home in recent memory for the green and gold.
As for the always-controversial Dallas Cowboys (3-1), a red-hot start to the season came in the form of reeling off three straight dominant wins over lowlife competition in the form of the Washington Redskins, New York Giants, and Miami Dolphins. Led by a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore and their leader at quarterback in Dak Prescott (whose impressive start to the season has Cowboy fans chanting for MVP), the Cowboys' offense has blossomed at times early in this regular season. With the steady, yet dynamic, play of running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver Amari Cooper, the Dallas’ offense has true potential to be a top five unit in the league. Complimented by a loaded defense that has dominated opposing offenses with its exceptional group of linebackers and defensive backs, Dallas has the true makings of a Super Bowl contender if they can continue their early season momentum. However, some of that mojo also came crashing down in Week 4, as Dallas dropped a could-have-been-won game on the road to Teddy Bridgewater and the New Orleans Saints. Whereas the Dallas’ defense shut down the Saints’ attack and held them to 12 points on four field goals, Prescott and the rest of the Cowboys’ offense was able to generate almost nothing in an impressive Saints’ win in the Superdome. If Dallas drops back-to-back games early in the season against two quality playoff teams in the NFC, there could be a lot of early season noise on the true potential of how good this Dallas team can really be.
Off to a nice start with four touchdowns on the ground, running back Aaron Jones has helped bring some stability to the Green Bay running game (via Flipboard).
Even though Green Bay’s early season numbers are not as bad as some people have made it out to be, the Packers’ offense has not had the consistency they have strived throughout the first quarter of the season. A lot of this has to do with the transitional period between head coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which has been met with mixed reviews so far. However, Rodgers has still put up a solid season with very few mistakes outside of a back-breaking pick last week, with numbers such as 1069 passing yards and six touchdowns. If LaFleur can call more plays to utilize Rodgers’ unique mobility outside of the pocket with his legs, this offense could really start to take off soon and generate some big plays. Throwing in running back Aaron Jones to the offensive equation, whose four touchdowns are tied for second in the league, has helped this offense mix a balanced run to pass ratio, which could benefit the Pack in the long run as the playoff race starts to get tighter. The perimeter options for Green Bay have been a little shaky so far this season, with the exception of an awesome Week 4 performance by superstar Davante Adams. Adams, however, is expected to miss this Sunday’s game with a toe injury. Without Adams in the lineup, the Packers will look to incorporate Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Jimmy Graham into their passing attack, which could have some major struggles against a superb Dallas defense.
As for the very solid Packers’ defense, a explosive start on that side of the ball has caught the attention of many throughout the league. After years of struggling to give Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense any kind of help on defense, the strongest link of the Packers may now be on defense. Led by Coach Pettine, the Packers have shut down all four quarterbacks they have played so far by really limiting the amount of big plays in the passing game. While this has opened up some running lanes for backs such as Phillip Lindsay and Jordan Howard in recent weeks, the Packers still rank as the tenth best defense in terms of yardage in the league. A lot of this has to do with an excellent secondary featuring ball hawks such as Adrian Amos, Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and rookie Darnell Savage, who have this defense clicking with the league’s third best run defense. The Packers’ defense faces a huge test this weekend with the explosive playmaking abilities of Prescott, Elliott, and Cooper, and people around the league will definitely find out if this defense is the real deal on Sunday with a solid performance.
The Cowboys will need a major bounce back performance from running back Ezekiel Elliott against a shaky Packers’ run defense (via GoodFitGoes.com).
Meanwhile, one of the season’s top early headlines heading into Week 4 was the superb play of the Dallas Cowboys’ offense. With creative playcalling from their young offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, the Cowboys were thriving on the offensive side of the ball due to their ability to create big plays behind a dominant offensive line. In addition to this, many Cowboy fans started to generate some early MVP hype for Dak Prescott, while also endorsing his opportunity to get paid some huge amounts of money in an extension from Jerry Jones. This hype, of course, died down quite a bit after a painful Week 4 loss to the New Orleans Saints on the road, yet the Cowboys should still be fine on that side of the ball if they can run the ball effectively once again. In order for Dallas to keep winning, Moore needs to keep unleashing Dak Prescott’s ability to throw the ball down the field and create big plays among a solid group of receivers, while also using Prescott’s mobility to his advantage. With this, it should easy the load of the running game for Dallas, which could certainly transform this offense into a lethal unit that will be nearly impossible to stop with the superior talent known as Ezekiel Elliott roaming the Cowboys’ backfield. The Cowboys head into the weekend with true revenge on their mind, especially after Rodgers and the Packers were able to pull out a tight playoff win the last time these two teams met in Dallas. It remains to be see if they can hang with another contender in the NFC, but do not be surprised if this offense comes out on fire on Sunday afternoon.
Like the Packers, although their offense may have some enormous potential to be a top unit in football, the true strength of the Cowboys may be in their awesome defense. With young, star players all over the field such as Byron Jones, DeMarcus Lawrence, Jaylon Smith, and Leighton Vander Esch, the Cowboys may field one of the best defensive rosters in the league. With that being said, Dallas has yet to allow more than 21 points in a game so far this season, and ranks as the league’s seventh best defense in terms of total yardage heading into Week 5. Last season, the Cowboys’ defense, and season, changed after a surprise win over the Saints that few predicted. This season, the Cowboys played outstanding on defense against the Saints again, but ultimately fell due to a lack of production from Prescott and the offense. Going up against an offense in Green Bay that has not hit their peak quite yet could serve the defense well coming after a loss on Sunday Night Football, and the Cowboys’ defense will look to lead this team back to the top of the NFC East with a dominant win against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
The Packers’ defense will face a tall task this weekend against the terrific trio of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper (via TMJ4).
Packers’ Keys to the Game: Don’t Fizzle Out on Offense and Contain Elliott
Green Bay will likely need to put together their best offensive performance of the season if they want to come out on top on Sunday, and a lot of this has to do with their ability to consistently move the ball down the field over the course of the game. Green Bay’s offense has had far too many three and outs on offense to start the season, which is very unusual for a Rodgers-led team. In addition, the Packers have had some great starts on offense to begin the game through their first four games, but have often fallen off in a big way in the second half. If Green Bay follows this trend and struggles against a roster full of Cowboy superstars in the second half, it will be nearly impossible for the green and gold to come out on top. This puts a ton of pressure on Matt LaFleur’s playcalling this weekend, which will likely be a steady mix of running and passing. Green Bay will need Aaron Jones to have a nice game to force Dallas to commit to stopping the run, which could open up a passing game likely missing Davante Adams. With this, Rodgers is typically known as one of the league’s most streaky quarterbacks, and LaFleur will need to keep him in rhythm throughout the game if they want to put up some major points on offense on Sunday afternoon.
On defense for the Pack, they must focus on not letting running back Ezekiel Elliott run all over them for a monster game. Even though the Packers’ fast start on defense has been widely acknowledged throughout the league, they have still struggled to stop the run at times against some pretty decent running backs. Facing a matchup against one of the league’s very best running backs could come as a major concern for Packers’ fans, and their coaching staff would be wise to put a large focus of their gameplan on making sure that Elliott does not have one of his season-defining performances. With solid players in the middle such as Preston Smith and Blake Martinez, the Packers have the bodies that should be able to at least slow Zeke, but it will certainly still be a major challenge. If Green Bay fails to do this and Elliott goes nuts for over 100 yards and a few scores, it could a very long day that could end in a second loss on the season for the Packers.
The Cowboys’ awesome group of linebackers should give Green Bay some trouble this weekend (via USA Today).
Cowboys’ Keys to the Game: Use the Run Game Early and Often and Pressure Rodgers
To counter the point made about the Packers’ defense, the Cowboys need to enforce their running game a ton early this weekend in a very exploitable matchup. After one of their worst running performances in recent memory against the Saints in Week 4, it would come as no surprise if offensive coordinator Kellen Moore tries to establish the run with Elliott early behind a great offensive line. By running right at the Packers’ middle of their defense (perhaps their weakest area), the Cowboys could enforce some physicality early and open up some passing lanes later in the game with some play-action down the field to Amari Cooper. This could ease the load off of Prescott’s shoulders that he has somewhat had to carry over the first quarter of the season, and it could be a very encouraging thing for Cowboy fans to see Dallas return to their ground-and-pound approach early in this close matchup. With that being said, the Cowboys must also win their own turnover battle and not set up Aaron Rodgers with any type of positive field position. Doing so could possibly make this game out of hand in a very winnable game for the ‘Boys, so it will be imperative that Prescott and Zeke do not hand the Packers a win on Sunday.
For the Dallas’ defense, putting pressure on Rodgers in the pocket could be their key to winning this game. The Packers do have a very solid offensive line (that is a bit banged up heading into the matchup), but Rodgers often holds onto the ball too long in the pocket and takes some unreasonable sacks. If Dallas can generate a strong pass rush off a four man front or through various exotic blitzing, the Cowboys could force the veteran quarterback into some rarely-errant throws and take the ball away from a very conservative Packers’ offense. In addition to this, like so many other great quarterbacks such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees, the key to beating Rodgers is flustering him while in the pocket. This formula has worked time and time again on these various signal callers, and the Cowboys’ defense is certainly capable of doing that same thing with a strong array of players on their front seven. Turnovers and sacks are a major factor in this matchup between two possible playoff teams this season, and the game could easily come down to one or two big plays for a defense to swing the tide of the game.
It should be a very close game, but look for Dak Prescott to make just a few more big plays to put the Cowboys on top this weekend (via Flipboard).
Prediction: Packers (27) - Cowboys (30)
The Packers and the Cowboys have a long history full of up-and-down battles, such as the last two times these teams have met in the playoffs, and this game should be no different. A major key in this game depends on the performance of Aaron Rodgers versus a very stout Dallas defense, and we’ll likely see a fascinating chess match between them. In addition to this, look for Green Bay’s defense to put a lot more emphasis on stopping the Cowboys’ run game, which has dominated at times since Ezekiel Elliott’s arrival. If the Packers can at least contain the run and force Prescott to throw the ball down the field often, Green Bay could have a major advantage on the road in a hostile environment. One last note to watch out for in this game: the kicking units. Between several close battles in years’ past, a field goal has often been the deciding factor and this game could very well come down to a last second kick or two.
On Sunday afternoon, the Packers and Cowboys will face off in one of the league’s best early season games of the season. While Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense may find some early success after a solid performance in Week 4, it will be interesting to see if they carry any momentum against a good defense into the second half, where they have struggled. In addition, the Packers should greatly miss Davante Adams on the outside if he is inactive, which could force Green Bay to adjust their game plan to a more run-centric formula with their star weapon likely out. Meanwhile, Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense should not have a ton of trouble moving the ball down the field against the Packers’ good but not great front, especially after the Cowboys surprisingly struggled against New Orleans a week ago. The Cowboys’ O line is not likely to put up back-to-back clunkers, which should create some big holes for Elliott and the run game. This game should be tight all the way from the 1st to the 4th, but we’ll have Prescott outlasting Rodgers by just a few plays at the end of the game in a thriller.
Betting: Packers (+3.5) @ Cowboys
Certainly one of the most difficult bets of the week, no team has a clear advantage that bettors should jump on right away. As is the case with plenty of 3.5 point spreads over the upcoming weekend, this game should be very close and is unlikely to be a blowout in the favor of either team. With that, it is interesting to see the half point spread added on top of the original three points, which means that oddsmakers may be fearing a push could be possible this weekend in Dallas. If this line stays or even moves up higher to four points in favor of the Cowboys, it could be a wise investment to jump on the Packers. Even though the road underdog could have some difficulties heading into the home of one of the best teams in the NFC, this Green Bay team has had some success in AT&T Stadium and could pull off a minor upset on Sunday. In addition, it is always hard to give Aaron Rodgers anything more than three points in a spread, as the future Hall of Famer always has a chance to put up a special performance every week. If this spread was a bit lower, we would likely suggest taking Dallas as a home favorite. Nevertheless, as it stands right now, take Green Bay to pull off an upset or at least cover on the road in Texas.