Primetime Picture Week 7: Texans @ Colts
By Peyton Schultze
J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans are riding high in the AFC so far in 2019 (via SI.com).
Welcome to the fifth edition of Primetime Picture, our new weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. For this weekend, Deshaun Watson and the explosive Houston Texans offense heads up to Indianapolis for a divisional bout with Jacoby Brissett and the sneaky-good Colts in a battle for 1st place in the AFC South (10:00 AM PST, CBS).
With two straight impressive wins over the desperate Atlanta Falcons and the struggling Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans (4-2) have shot to the top of NFL-wide power rankings. Led in large part by the absurd play of MVP candidate Deshaun Watson, a steady defense, and improved situational coaching from Bill O’Brien, Houston has looked the part so far this season and looks like they are finally ready to jump onto the Super Bowl map as a contender for the Lombardi Trophy in February. Yet the Texans really will face a major hurdle in their path this weekend in a highly anticipated matchup with the rival Indianapolis Colts, a team that has been their kryptonite and knocked them out of the postseason in last years’ Wild Card round. However, this Texans’ team looks even better than they did a season ago when they won the AFC South, and a win over their division rival would go a long way in inspiring the team’s confidence for the rest of the season. The task will be a very tough assignment on the road, but the Texans should have a bit of comfort in knowing how high of a level Deshaun Watson has been playing at so far in 2019. With Watson showing why he was a high draft pick coming out of his impressive time at Clemson, the Texans may be an emerging team with realistic sky high aspirations for really the first time in the franchise’s short history.
Nevertheless, the Colts (3-2) had perhaps the most shocking and impressive win of the season in their own victory over Patrick Mahomes and the previously undefeated Chiefs in Week 5 on Sunday Night Football. By limiting their turnovers, controlling the clock, and keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands, the Colts pulled off a shocker and established themselves as a threat to be reckoned with in the AFC before heading into their early season bye week. However, Indianapolis had also lost to the Oakland Raiders the week before that, which has many people wondering what version of the Colts will show up on Sunday. Will the Colts’ defense replicate their dominant performance against Kansas City? Can Jacoby Brissett continue playing at such a high level? Can Indy pull of back-to-back wins against two of the best teams in the AFC? Whatever the case may be, defense and a solid ground game travel from week-to-week in the NFL, and Indianapolis has both of those. If the Colts can control the clock once again on Sunday and make sure that Deshaun Watson doesn’t explode for a huge game, Indianapolis could find themselves at the top of the AFC South come late Sunday night.
Deshaun Watson is off to an awesome start this season, and looks like a legitamate MVP candidate through six games (via Sportscasting.com).
Sunday’s matchup will be hard fought, but it is hard to ignore just how great the Texans have been in recent weeks. After a hot start, it is clear that the Texans’ offense is simply one of the best in the league due to their two superstar talents: quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Both players are one of the best at their respective positions in the league, and are truly generational talents capable of leading their franchise to Super Bowl glory. Watson’s continued growth at quarterback and Hopkins’ ridiculous range of athleticism at wide receiver defines this football team, yet they now have a solid supporting cast of players who are looking to help lead the charge through the AFC. The Texans’ offensive line has struggled mightily in recent seasons, but has at least improved in that area with the preseason trade for left tackle Laremy Tunsil from Miami. Tunsil had a tough Week 1 performance versus a very good Saints’ defense, but has otherwise been able to limit opposing pass rushers and protect their stud quarterback, setting the tone as their leader on the offensive line. Elsewhere on offense, journeyman running backs Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson have helped set the table for the Texans’ running game, and have actually produced at a very solid rate so far compared to what expectations were. The super fast Will Fuller and dynamic Kenny Stills also help round out the Houston wide receiving core, and both have certainly eased the pressure off of Hopkins quite a bit at this point in the season. With tons of offensive ballers on the field all at the same time, Houston looks like one of the best offenses in the league with some of the best offensive players in all of football on their roster.
Perhaps no player in all of football has more of an impact in terms of the direction of his team than the spectacular J.J. Watt. As one of the faces of the NFL, Watt is a future Hall of Famer, the heart and soul of the Texans, and truly one of the best all-around people in the game. With a combination of grit, determination, hustle, and athleticism, Watt sets the tone for this Texans’ defense that has had its bright spots throughout the years. While they do miss the talents of Kareem Jackson and Jadeveon Clowney on defense, Houston has been able to replace their production and remain a very solid defense. Opposite of Watt on the other side of the line has been Whitney Mercilus, who has always produced at a high level during his time in Texas. Meanwhile, the Texans also have a solid core of linebackers in the form of Benardrick McKinney, Zach Cunningham, and Brennan Scarlett, and have been effective against the run in only allowing 88.0 rushing yards per game. Houston also has some very solid players in the secondary, such as Bradley Roby, Johnathan Joseph, and Justin Reid, although Roby is expected to be out for around a month with an injury. Houston is solid across the board on defense once again, but they do head into the weekend's matchup banged up. As long as they can avoid the injury bug once again and mostly stay healthy for a large part of the season, this Texans’ defense should be one of the better units on that side of the ball.
Indianapolis pulled off a massive upset in their last game before the bye week by shocking the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on the road (via Flipboard).
Meanwhile, the Colts are one of the few teams in the NFL that has a clear team identity reflected in their extreme physicality and appropriate decision making on the field. Even before Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement before the start of the 2019 season, Indianapolis had truly formed a complete roster that could counter some of the best teams in the league. Led by their new franchise quarterback in the very poised Jacoby Brissett, the Colts’ 3-2 record has been highlighted by much better-than-expected offensive play without Luck now out of the picture. A huge reason for this is due to the nasty play of the Colts’ offensive line, which could arguably be one of the best offensive lines in the league along with Dallas, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. With studs such as Ryan Kelly, Anthony Castonzo, and the best left guard in football in Quenton Nelson, the Colts do a great job of protecting Brissett in the passing game and setting the tone at the line of scrimmage for a great run game led by former USF running back Marlon Mack. With Mack playing at a Pro Bowl caliber level, the Colts have been able to put together one of the most complete all-around offenses in the NFL. Throwing other players into the mix such as the speedy T.Y. Hilton and big time tight end Eric Ebron makes Indy just that much more dynamic and diverse on offense, which causes some real matchup problems in pregame preparation for other teams. This Colts’ offense is a handful, and they look like a team that could be on the verge of rising to Super Bowl contender status in the league.
Even though the Colts’ defense lacks a ton of true star power on that side of the ball, Indianapolis has been able to become one of the better defenses in the league. After an awesome performance in Week 5 that created the worst game of Patrick Mahomes’ young career, the Colts’ D rose on the radar of NFL fans around the country and now looks like they could be ready to help make a difference in some games. Led by defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, Indianapolis’ defense heads into the weekend with a very tough task of slowing down another dynamic quarterback in former Clemson star Deshaun Watson. Luckily, the Colts do have some players on defense that will work to slow down the Texans’ defense. With a true defensive cornerstone in middle linebacker Darius Leonard, Indy has been able to slow down some opposing running games such as Kansas City with some physicality in the trenches. Joining Leonard is a defensive line full of studs such as Justin Houston, Jabaal Sheard, and Denico Autry, all of whom present some matchup problems for offenses. In the back end of their defense, the Colts have some true ball hawks such as Kenny Moore, Pierre Desir, and the extremely versatile safety Malik Hooker, who have put together some great performances over the past two years when they are all healthy and on the field together. Indy may not be the best ranked defense in the NFL on paper, but they truly pass the eye test with their ability to punish some of the best offenses in the league.
Behind a much improved offensive line, Deshaun Watson’s talents have been on full display in the dynamic Texans’ offense (via Flipboard).
Texans’ Keys to the Game: Give Watson Time to Throw and Get Stops on Third Down
A key focal point of Houston’s four early season wins has been their ability to all of a sudden protect quarterback Deshaun Watson. After struggling for years to help out their talented franchise quarterback by providing him some protection in the pocket, the preseason acquisition of left tackle Laremy Tunsil has helped turn around the prior misfortunes of this offensive line and now looks at least somewhat competent group. The Colts do not have an elite defensive line that has a lot of elite pass rushers, but they are still certainly a capable group that could wreck a game if they allowed to take some free shots on Watson. This makes it so important for the Texans’ offense to give Watson some time to throw, as he has an awesome ability to make some magic happen with the balls in his hands. As Watson currently stands in the top five of the MVP conversation to this point in the season, the Texans need their star to be on the field and healthy in order to win on Sunday and over the course of the season as they attempt to rise to a status as Super Bowl contenders.
The Colts flat out exposed the Chiefs on the ground during their last game on the field, and the Texans will once again face the tall task of cutting off long drives from the Colts that could limit the amount of times that Watson and the offense has a chance to score. Contrary to the high-profile scoring that has been seen throughout the league so far this season, Indy has made it clear that they plan to win football games by controlling the line of scrimmage and time of possession to slow down elite quarterbacks in the National Football League. This makes third down extremely important heading into this weekend’s bout, as the Texans’ defense will need to get off the field early and often so that Watson can help put up some points and be fresh enough to get after Brissett in the fourth quarter. Indy converts 46.15% of their third downs, ranking 9th in the league, and this could easily be a key part that decides which AFC South team comes out on top this weekend.
The Colts will likely need T.Y. Hilton to have a big game in order to generate some big plays down the field (via Awesomo).
Colts’ Keys to the Game: Get Some Big Plays on Offense and Keep Watson in the Pocket
Indianapolis’ running game is one of the more potent in the league with Marlon Mack at the helm, but the Colts will likely face an aggressive Texans’ defense that tries to take that effective component out of the game for the Colts. With that being said, this could easily force quarterback Jacoby Brissett to go out and be forced to win a game for the Colts, which fans have not really seen to any extent since becoming the full time starter for the blue and white. If this becomes the case, Brissett and the Colts’ offense could rely on a solid play-action game to generate some big plays down the field to get the ball into the hands of playmakers such as Eric Ebron and T.Y. Hilton, two former Pro Bowlers who must have special attention being paid to them at all times. Indy should still be able to effectively run the football at a decently high level on Sunday, but a few big plays to stretch the ball down the field could be the difference maker in a close battle.
Coming off a spectacular performance in their last appearance versus the Kansas City Chiefs, the Colts defense is a group full of unlikely role players would could cause some trouble for the Houston offense on Sunday. If the Colts want to pull of a huge win in the division, they must contain the explosiveness of superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson and make sure to keep him in the pocket. Like similar players such as Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers, Watson thrives when he uses his legs to escape from trouble and create some plays down the field. That makes the matchup for Indy’s defense very tough against Houston, and they will need to put a large amount of focus on generating pressure in the pocket and surrounding the quarterback with all sorts of bodies. If the Colts can generate a lot of pressure in the pocket all day long against a relatively weak offensive live, Indianapolis could cruise to a great win over the weekend.
The Colts’ dominant run game, led by Marlon Mack, could play a huge role in a possible divisional win on Sunday (via The Star Press).
Prediction: Houston Texans (21) - Indianapolis Colts (24)
As a battle of two AFC South playoff teams from a season ago, this is a highly anticipated matchup between two teams that look like possible threats in the AFC. In recent seasons, the Texans have struggled to get their own “big win”, but may have some confidence moving forward after upsetting the Chiefs on the road in a total team effort. Meanwhile, the Colts are continuing their consistent play as AFC underdogs, and may look to play that role once again on Sunday despite their favoring in Vegas. The Texans are the suddenly splashy team that many people are now marking as the team that could challenge New England in the conference, but Indianapolis played that same card before heading into the bye week last week. This leaves a major question between teams that are fighting for the top spot in the AFC South: which team will continue their momentum and which team will suffer a tough lose against a divisional foe?
Indianapolis may have to mix up their previous game plan used against Kansas City since the Texans will likely commit to stopping the run, but the Colts still have plenty of weapons to help move the ball down the field. One major contributor in this game will be wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who is now healthy after the Colts’ bye week and had three very good performances against the Texans last season. If Hilton can get some big plays down the field with plenty of yards after the catch, the Colts will have a great chance of rolling all day long. However, it is hard to completely count out how well Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense is playing right now, and Houston will stay in the game all day long as long as their quarterback is protected. With that being said, this game could easily come down to the Texans’ offensive line against Colts’ front seven and their play in the trenches. Although the Texans’ O line has played very well in recent weeks and is a very improved unit, the Colts have the advantage and should be able to control the line of scrimmage. This game should be exciting until the end, but Indianapolis with pull it out with timely, ball control offense and a few huge plays on defense to set up excellent field position.
Betting: Houston @ Indianapolis (-1.0)
It is extremely tempting to vote in favor of the Texans this weekend after dominating the Chiefs on the road last Sunday, but the Colts have plenty of things going in their favor that could swing this game. In the all-time history between the two franchises, the Colts own a series record of 27-8-0, including winning ten of their last fourteen against the rival Texans. In addition, Houston has often disappointed coming a big win the previous week in recent seasons, and it is certainly a nerve-wracking choice to bet in favor of the Texans with a ton of confidence. If Indianapolis can continue their same formula of good football and play how they did against the Chiefs instead of how they played against the Raiders, the Colts should be able to control the game and take the ball out of Deshaun Watson’s hands. In addition, Indianapolis easily won a road playoff game against Houston last season and has often dominated the AFC South in recent seasons. Be weary of a last second Houston win on the final drive of the game due to the magic of Watson, but take the Colts this weekend as a home favorite in a big divisional game versus the upstart Texans.