Primetime Picture Week 3: Rams @ Browns
By Peyton Schultze
Cooper Kupp and the Rams looked as good as ever in Week 2 versus the Saints, as highlighted by the stud wide receiver’s huge catch and run in the 4th quarter (via Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times).
Welcome to the first 2019 edition of Primetime Picture, our new weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. For this week, the Los Angeles Rams head to Cleveland to take on Baker Mayfield and the high-flying Browns in front of a large national TV audience on Sunday Night Football (5:20 PM PST, NBC).
A week after a win in their rematch of the controversial 2018 NFC Championship Game, the Rams (2-0) head on the road for the second time this season. After a somewhat up-and-down game for Los Angeles in Week 1 versus the Carolina Panthers, the Rams bounced back in a big way in Week 2. Although a hand injury to Drew Brees significantly affected the overall outcome of the game for both New Orleans and Los Angeles, the Rams were able to roll all afternoon long, led in large part by a defense that is firing on all cylinders to begin the season. With their superstar players in Aaron Donald, Jared Goff, and Todd Gurley not even playing at their usually high level right now, there is significant room to grow for the Rams, especially as they head on the road to a city that has not hosted a Sunday Night Football game since 2008.
Meanwhile for the Browns (1-1), the high offseason expectations seemed to get to Baker Mayfield and their crew in Week 1, as they unexpectedly lost at home to an inconsistent Titans’ roster. However, the Browns did bounce back with an easy win in Week 2 on the road versus the New York Jets. Although injuries tore apart any hope from the Jets, the Browns were able to control the game all night long and had very little trouble securing their first win in their new era under head coach Freddie Kitchens. Nevertheless, the Browns’ offense still did not put up huge numbers against a solid Jets’ defense, and had some drives that were severely stalled by penalties and a lot of incompletions. If not for a monster performance by Odell Beckham Jr. under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, the Browns could be in a very different position than they are right now.
Even through two career games with the Browns, Odell Beckham Jr. has made a huge impact on the entire Cleveland organization (via WKYC).
Although the Rams have had a great start to the season following their Super Bowl disappointment, the real story of Sunday night will be all about the Browns. After acquiring talents such as Olivier Vernon and Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason, many people around the league profiled the Browns as possible Super Bowl contenders, even in a conference with Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady at the helm. However, Cleveland has not really looked the part to begin the season, and the team now prepares to face a major challenge with the offensive wizard known as Sean McVay and the defending NFC champions rolling into Sunday night’s primetime matchup.
Luckily for the Browns, their defense responded in Week 2 in a huge way after being humiliated by Marcus Mariota and the Titans in Week 1 at home. With four combined quarterback sacks and by forcing a Le’Veon Bell fumble late on Monday night, the Browns were able to hold the battered Jets to only three points in an impressive showing. With the high-flying Rams’ offense (2nd in the NFL in total offense in 2018) coming into town this weekend though, the Browns will face perhaps their biggest challenge of the season with all eyes on them. The Browns do own one significant advantage in this game that could play into their hands: their ability to rush the quarterback. The Rams have struggled to block for Jared Goff so far to start the season (three sacks allowed in Week 2), and Goff has shown a tendency to really have some bad games when he is constantly pressured. If the Browns are able to replicate the formula that the Bears and Patriots used versus Los Angeles last season, Cleveland could pull off a huge win in front of a ready-to-go Browns’ fanbase that is starving for a big time win.
Yet what could possibly put the Browns over the top on Sunday is if their offense can finally get clicking. With two straight mediocre performances that have not been well received, the Browns will need to find their offensive mojo against a strong Rams’ defense if they want to pull off a win. Excluding the superior play of Odell Beckham Jr. to start the season (who has shown his generational talent once again), Cleveland has had very few offensive highlights that could inspire any kind of confidence going forward. Speaking of confidence, quarterback Baker Mayfield has plenty of it, but has not performed at a high level so far to begin the season. Although he was slightly better on Monday night, Mayfield has struggled to read the defense on certain occasions and his four early-season interceptions are a major cause for concern in Cleveland. Head coach Freddie Kitchens had this to say regarding Mayfield’s Monday Night Football performance:
“On some of the plays, he looked good on and some of the plays he did not look so good on, but it is all things that we can correct. I can do a better job personally putting him in better situations on a more consistent basis. That is the way we will go about that.”
If Baker Mayfield and the Browns’ offense can’t turn it around soon, Cleveland will struggle with a brutal upcoming schedule (via USA Today).
As for Los Angeles, two straight wins means sunny skies for McVay and the rest of the Rams. After a physical and hard-fought battle against Carolina, the Rams came out firing in Week 2 against a formidable foe in the New Orleans Saints. Although the Rams’ offense often grabs the headline, the defense has been lights out to start the year, carrying over a recent trend that started near the end of last season. With big time talents such as Aaron Donald, Clay Matthews, Aqib Talib, and Marcus Peters hovering around on defense, Los Angeles looks like a top five unit on defense throughout the league right now (holding opponents to 293.5 yards per game to start, fifth in the league). Even though the Rams fell at the hands of the Patriots last February, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips created a brilliant defensive scheme that all but eliminated Tom Brady and New England’s offensive effectiveness. This has seemingly translated into their solid start to the 2019 season, even though Donald has yet to take over a game (zero sacks through two games). Donald has the potential to break out this weekend against a shaky Browns’ offensive line, and the Rams have all the tools to make it another rough outing for Mayfield.
Jared Goff and the Rams’ offense has been a little stagnant at times so far, but they are still a feared unit that remains one of the league’s best. One of the biggest questions heading into the new season was how much the Rams would use their star running back in Todd Gurley. So far, the answer to that has been a fair amount, but nothing close to a year ago when Gurley played like a MVP candidate. With a little less of Gurley, the Rams have slightly turned more toward Goff and the passing game, while using Malcolm Brown in the backfield as well. After missing a chunk of 2018 to a torn ACL, wide receiver Cooper Kupp has emerged once again in the Rams’ passing attack as Goff’s true security blanket. Adding Kupp back to the mix alongside Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods makes the Rams’ offense very hard to defend, but they truly run through Goff. The young quarterback was much better in Week 2 as opposed to his putrid start versus the Panthers over the opening weekend, but Los Angeles is still waiting for him to return to his true Pro Bowl form that he often showed throughout last season.
The Rams’ offense will face somewhat of a tough matchup this weekend against a Browns’ defense that only allowed three points in Week 2 (via USA Today).
Rams’ Keys to the Game: Protect Goff and Limit Beckham Jr.
For the Rams to win on Sunday night, they will certainly need to protect quarterback Jared Goff after Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defensive line had a big game in Week 2 versus New York. If Goff has time to throw and is not constantly under attack, the Rams will own a huge advantage against an inconsistent defense with weak secondary play. In addition, this will allow the Rams to get the ball in their hands of their playmakers such as Cooks, Kupp, and Woods. If their trio of star receivers can put up some big numbers, the Rams should be able to move the ball well on offense all night long.
On the defensive side for Los Angeles, the Rams must make sure that Odell Beckham Jr. does not have a huge game like he did a week ago. Similar to Aaron Donald’s impact for the Rams, Odell has the ability to single-handedly take over football games for a Browns’ team that is still trying to find their footing on offense. While it is nearly impossible to take Beckham Jr. out of the game completely, the Rams will likely look toward Marcus Peters or Aqib Talib to follow him around the field and limit his production. If the Rams can at least limit the big plays from Beckham Jr. and the Browns’ big play offense, Los Angeles could be in a good position to have another nice performance in Cleveland this weekend.
Myles Garrett and the Browns must limit the penalties that have plagued their team to start the season (via Flipboard).
Browns’ Keys to the Game: Get Mayfield Hot Early and Solve the Penalty Problem
With two subpar performances to open the season for the former Heisman Trophy winner out of Oklahoma, the Browns will need Baker Mayfield to get off to a much better start this weekend if they want to hang around with one of the NFC’s best teams. Instead of taking a flurry of deep shots like they have over the past two weeks, Freddie Kitchens needs to dish up some easier throws for Mayfield so that he can get in rhythm with his receivers early, and not have to entirely rely on Odell Beckham Jr. to make some huge plays. If Mayfield can get rolling early and piece together some nice drives in the first half, the Browns can make this a close game that could come down to a few plays in the 4th quarter.
For the Browns’ defense, their top priority must be to limit the penalties that have become a major problem to start the season so far. One of their main culprits in this epidemic is star pass rusher Myles Garrett, who must learn to fix his mistakes on defense involving hitting the opposing quarterback. Although it does not seem like much, Cleveland already leads the league in penalties (seven more than the next team in the Green Bay Packers) and needs to fix the issue before it ends up costing them games. If the Browns have even more flags this weekend, they will likely struggle to hang around with an explosive Rams’ offense.
Todd Gurley and the Rams will look to get off to a very nice 3-0 start against a noisy and controversial Cleveland team (via Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times).
Prediction: Rams (31) - Browns (23)
Although the Rams have not gained a lot of attention to start the season around the country, their current roster and team outlook looks even better and more smooth than it did a year ago. By limiting their star running back’s workload and improving their defense that has emerged as a top unit in the league already, Los Angeles looks more poised to take another step forward and win a tough NFC West once again. A week ago, the Rams throttled their 2018 NFC Championship Game opponent that many billed as a “revenge” game for the Saints. By remaining calm and poised throughout the game, Sean McVay and the Rams cruised all afternoon long and reminded many why they still remain a huge threat to the Lombardi Trophy.
Although the Browns may not be as talented across the board as the Saints, the Rams may face a tougher matchup this weekend as they travel into their first real hostile environment of the season. Cleveland figures to be loud on Sunday night with the return of weekend primetime football, and the Rams may get off to a bit of a slow start on offense because of it. However, with a Rams’ defense that has looked great going up against a Browns’ offense that has failed to meet expectations so far, Los Angeles could force some turnovers from Mayfield and really change the game for both sides. Cleveland may start hot in the first half, but the experienced Rams will respond in the second half on offense behind the legs of Gurley and Brown, to go along with a passing attack that will look much better this weekend versus an inconsistent secondary. The Rams pull off a close one behind an awesome second half effort from both sides of the ball.
Betting: Rams (-3) @ Browns
The Rams remain one of the better teams against the spread dating back to the start of last season, with a solid 55% of games being covered including 2-0 to start this season. Meanwhile, the Browns remain an unpredictable group that has confused bettors on occasion with their somewhat fluky performances from time to time. The Browns disappointed in Week 1 as home favorites versus the Titans, but responded with an easy cover last week versus the Jets on the road. It is difficult to not take a home underdog in their first Sunday Night Football game since 2008, but the Rams are simply more well-coached and have a better team behind them. Mayfield’s troubles to start the season have many confused on just how good the Browns can be, and people are hoping that Mayfield will break out of that slump this weekend in front of national television. However, this spread is just a little too low to have a ton of hope in a Browns’ cover, and this game would probably have the Rams favored by at least a touchdown if it were in Los Angeles at the Coliseum. It is also a major plus that the Rams are playing in Cleveland in September instead of November or December, where the weather this weekend will be favorable and should not be tough to play in by any means for the Rams. Take the Rams (-3) with confidence this weekend, even in a tough environment with a loud crowd behind it.