Primetime Picture Week 4: Vikings @ Bears
By Peyton Schultze
Last season, the Bears’ defense was able to cause chaos for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in two separate divisional wins over Minnesota (via Heavy.com).
Welcome to the second edition of Primetime Picture, our new weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. For this week, running back Dalvin Cook and the steady Minnesota Vikings head to the Windy City for a bruising and physical matchup with one of their divisional rivals in the hard-nosed Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon (1:25 PM PST, CBS).
After a NFC Championship appearance in 2017 and a disappointing season a year ago with a brand-new free agent quarterback under center, the Minnesota Vikings (2-1) look rejuvenated this season with a new ground-and-pound formula that has served them well early. Through three weeks, Minnesota has two impressive and easy wins over the Oakland Raiders and Atlanta Falcons, both of which came with a very impressive showing of complimentary football with clean production on both sides of the ball. However, a Week 2 loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers showed some cracks in their armor dating back to a season ago, including a lot of shaky play from quarterback Kirk Cousins late in the ballgame. Minnesota heads into this weekend’s matchup with a lot of uncertainty with who they really are and what their identity really is, especially with their awesome wide receiver duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs having extremely quiet seasons this early in the season. Nevertheless, a chance to upset last year’s NFC North champions should have the Purple People Eaters motivated to pull off a shocker and prove themselves as a real threat to be reckoned with in the NFC.
As for the defensive-driven Chicago Bears (2-1), a somewhat slow start to the season seemed to finally break out in Week 3, as Mitchell Trubisky threw for three touchdowns in a Monday Night Football win against the Washington Redskins. With a huge game from wide receiver Taylor Gabriel and a lot more aggressive playcalling from head coach Matt Nagy, Trubisky and the Bears cruised all night long on both sides of the ball, as the awesome Bears’ defense also forced five total Case Keenum turnovers in front of a national television audience (three interceptions, two fumbles). However, the Bears had struggled before Monday night, as they fell to the Green Bay Packers in an opening night snooze fest and barely pulled off a close win over the struggling Denver Broncos due to the heroics of kicker Eddy Piñeiro. With this, the Bears’ early season unpredictability has a lot of people pointing fingers at the true capabilities of their quarterback in Trubisky. However, the former #2 overall pick did help lead this organization to the playoffs last season, and seemed to take a major jump in his development a season ago. With that being said, will Trubisky help silence some of his critics with a huge win over a very good divisional opponent this weekend at home? Or will his struggles cause the Bears’ fall, especially in an extremely competitive division?
Two touchdowns from Adam Thielen, one rushing and one receiving, helped lead the Vikings to an easy win over the Raiders in a Week 3 matinee (via Flipboard).
After two humiliating losses to the Bears in 2018, Sunday’s matchup between these two rivals could be a low-scoring and physical fight that comes down to the wire for the Vikings. Although head coach Mike Zimmer and the Vikings’ front office did not make a ton of notable offseason changes, the Vikings do look like a much better squad right now than they really did at any point last season. A large part of this has to do with the dominant start for running back Dalvin Cook, who leads the league with 375 rushing yards. Cook’s four rushing touchdown have helped guide this team to early season success running the football, which has been very efficient for Minnesota to begin the season. This sudden reversal of offensive scheming is a major shift from a season ago, where Kirk Cousins was often called upon to fling the football around early and often. Not only could this new offense benefit Cousins’ effectiveness in the long run, but it matches up very well with other high-flying offenses in the NFC such as the Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys, and New Orleans Saints. If the Vikings can run the football at a high rate while controlling the time of possession, Minnesota has as good of a chance to make the postseason as any team in the NFC North. With that being said, this new offensive scheme puts a high emphasis on Kirk Cousins’ previous turnover issues that have plagued the team. Every Cousins’ mistake will be met with a lot of criticism due to his massive contract he signed a year ago, and the former 2017 Pro Bowler will need to improve his game in a huge way if Minnesota has a chance of going head-to-head with a team as lethal as the Bears.
Even though the Vikings have some major questions across the board on offense, very few people can criticize a lot of what the Vikings are doing right now on defense. Ranking fifth in points per game (15.7 PPG) on that side of the ball, Minnesota has a big chance at forcing Trubisky to have a rough game on offense for the Bears. As an experienced and poised defense that only has 22 penalties on the season, Zimmer’s aggressive defensive style has Minnesota firing on all cylinders, as they are able to consistently cause chaos on opposing defenses with studs across the board. With names like Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes in the secondary, the Vikings have been able to shut down opposing quarterbacks and prevent a lot of big plays against quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Derek Carr. In addition to this, Minnesota is very solid in the middle with their star middle linebacker in Eric Kendricks, who helps compliment a deadly pass rush featuring the likes of Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, and Danielle Hunter. Minnesota is a stacked all around the field on defense and has done a great job of not allowing a ton of offensive explosions this year and in prior seasons. This defense could cause a ton of trouble for a vulnerable Bears’ offense on Sunday, even on the road in a hostile environment.
Mitchell Trubisky had a solid bounce-back game in Week 3 against Washington after two shallow weeks without a touchdown pass (via Flipboard).
As for the reigning NFC North champions in the Chicago Bears, a slow start on offense to kick off the season had many diehard Chicagoans worried about how far this team can really go this year. A lot of these worries depend on the right arm of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who had a terrible first two weeks before a recovery in Week 3. With Trubisky under center, the Bears’ offense has looked shaky at times over the past two seasons with head coach Matt Nagy, who does try to incorporate Trubisky’s strengths into their game plan every week. One major strength of Trubisky is his ability to run the football, and the Bears’ offense is at its best when he is moving outside of the pocket and creating some big plays with his legs. With rookie David Montgomery and speedster Tarik Cohen in the backfield with him, the Bears also need their ground game to improve in a big way after only ranking 21st in run offense thus far. In addition to this, Trubisky relies a lot on some of his athletic targets in the passing game, such as Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton. Although Robinson has enjoyed nice production during his time in the Windy City, some of the other surrounding players on offense must step up to give their quarterback some help, especially as they prepare to face an experienced defense that could cause some havoc on the field this weekend.
Despite their inconsistencies on offense, there are few people who doubt just how elite the 2019 Bears’ defense is. Since acquiring superstar Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders a season ago, the Bears have consistently been one of the best defensive units in recent memory. With an uncanny ability to rush the quarterback, force turnovers, and limit big plays, the current version of the Bears’ defense has to bring back some winds from the glorious 1985 Bears team that remains one of the best defenses in league history, and this year’s group looks just as good once again. Led by defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, the Bears are third in the league in points per game (13 PPG) and have caused a lot of problems from opposing offenses, such as on Monday Night Football in Week 3 versus Washington. A lot of this has to do with the virtually impossible-to-block Mack and the front seven of the Chicago defense, which also features an abundance of Pro Bowlers and all around studs such as Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan, and Roquan Smith. However, the back end of the defense also features some big time players such as lockdown corner Kyle Fuller and ball hawking safety Eddie Jackson, both of whom create a lot of turnovers for the Bears on defense. The Bears did a great job of shutting down Cousins and the Vikings in both of their matchups last season, and they will certainly look to replicate their huge success from last season on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings will need to run the ball at a high level on Sunday if they want to pull off the upset on the road (via Flipboard).
Vikings’ Keys to the Game: Be Patient on Offense and Get After Trubisky
On offense, Minnesota has a clear disadvantage going up against perhaps the league’s best defense, so they must be patient and approach this game with a lot of caution. The Vikings’ strong running game gives them a great chance of pulling off an upset this weekend in Soldier Field, but they must be careful to limit their turnovers and not ditch their run game if they fall behind early. As shown in two games against the Bears a year ago, it will be nearly impossible for Kirk Cousins to carry this team to a victory through the passing game, even with Thielen and Diggs, so Minnesota and offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski must run the ball early and often with Dalvin Cook to counter the effectiveness of the Bears’ defense . The Bears have allowed some decently big rushing plays in the past two weeks to Denver running back Royce Freeman and Washington running back Chris Thompson, so the Vikings could be well suited to get a few big plays from Cook that could go for some huge yardage.
For the Vikings’ defense, blitzing Trubisky or forcing him into some errant throws could be a major factor in this football game. Head coach Mike Zimmer does use a lot of blitzing schemes to force opposing quarterbacks into some tough situations, and you can certainly bet that Zimmer will be prepared for Sunday in a big divisional game like this. Over the first three game, Minnesota has been able to harass the opposing quarterback (including four sacks of Derek Carr in Week 3), whereas the Bears have struggled to protect their quarterback at times so far in 2019. If Trubisky faces pressure in his face and throws some balls up for grabs in the secondary, Minnesota could change this game and really set themselves up with some great field position or ball control. This would allow the Vikings to use their own style of play on offense, which could enable them to control the time of possession and keep Trubisky and the Bears’ offense off the field. The stacked Vikings’ defense is certainly capable of this task, and it will be interesting to see if they can get into Trubisky’s head on Sunday.
The Bears’ defense has a ridiculous ability to possibly take any interception or fumble all the way to the house (via Flipboard).
Bears’ Keys to the Game: Run the Ball Early and Set up a Score on Defense
The Bears’ rushing attack has not had a very good to start the season, but this matchup against the Vikings is the Bears’ chance to finally take off in that department. In Week 2, Minnesota allowed Green Bay running back Aaron Jones to shred them on the ground, and the Bears will look to replicate this type of performance in order to take some pressure off of their quarterback’s shoulder. With Montgomery and Cohen in the backfield, the Bears have to use their two young weapons in some unique looks, whether it be on some end around plays (the Sean McVay style of play) or on some zone reads that could also incorporate some of Trubisky’s running. Whatever the case may be, if the Bears can run the ball at a successful level against a defense that is somewhat susceptible against the run, Chicago could cruise all day long behind their attack.
Meanwhile on defense, the Bears have a great opportunity to force some key turnovers against a mistake-prone quarterback in Cousins. The Vikings will likely try to use their ground-and-pound offense once again throughout the game, but if the Bears can find a way to force the game into Cousins’ hands, they could make some huge plays on defense to turn the tide of the game. The last time these two teams met at Soldier Field in 2018, safety Eddie Jackson was able to take a Kirk Cousins interception to the house on their way to a dominant home victory in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football. With a hot start on defense and plenty of playmakers on the field, the Bears have a great chance to do something similar to that on Sunday afternoon, especially with Cousins struggling once again. If Chicago can simply win the turnover battle to put themselves in a great position to score some points, the Monsters of the Midway could once again have a field day on Sunday at Soldier Field.
The Bears face a huge game early in the season on Sunday versus the physical Vikings (via SportsMockery).
Prediction: Bears (24) - Vikings (16)
Although Trubisky’s inconsistencies are a major concern heading into a matchup against a good defense, the Bears own the key advantage of having a defense that has the ability to single-handedly win games. With superstar players on defense such as Smith, Jackson, and Mack, the Bears have to be one of the best defensive units in recent memory, right up there alongside the 2015 Denver Broncos and 2013 Seattle Seahawks. Even with a limited quarterback, the Bears have to like their chances a lot of returning to the playoffs this year, and that path begins right now with a major test versus a good divisional opponent. Minnesota is also a very good team, and could possibly sneak back into the playoffs as a wild card in the NFC. However, it is very tough to trust quarterback Kirk Cousins against this defense on a primetime Sunday afternoon game, as the veteran has often struggled on the biggest stages for several years now.
On Sunday afternoon, the Bears and Vikings will play in a low-scoring affair that could be decided by a few key plays. One of these plays will likely come from Mack, who is a train on the defensive side of the ball and a top five player in the league. A strip sack or big hit that forces an interception seems all but likely from the All-Pro giant, and a play or two like this will really propel the Bears to score some touchdowns on offense with solid field position. The home field advantage of Soldier Field will also be huge, as the Bears have been on the road for two straight weeks since opening night against the Packers. Behind an electric crowd and much-improved offensive playcalling from head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears have a lot of things pointing in their direction this Sunday. The score may actually end up being a lot closer than it sounds, but Chicago will roll their way through the Vikings and secure a nice victory over a divisional foe.
Betting: Vikings @ Bears (-2.5)
Even though the Vikings are extremely talented on paper and may even have a better overall roster than the Bears, it is truly hard to put any kind of faith into Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense. Chicago has been a bit of a concern this year against the spread, as they head into Sunday’s matchup 1-2 in that department with their only win coming over the terrible Washington Redskins. However, after two dominant wins over the Vikings a year ago that saw the Bears cover in both, there has to be some confidence that the Bears can pull this one out in Week 4. It is interesting to note that Minnesota has actually been better against the spread than the Bears have been since the beginning of 2018 (10-8-1), but Cousins has also famously struggled in primetime games over the course of his career in Washington and Minnesota (this game is scheduled for the afternoon CBS national TV slot). With all of this being said, there should be a lot of confidence when taking the Bears this week, especially with very few major injuries and the fact that the game is being played at the friendly confines of Soldier Field. The spread of 2.5 is interesting, especially since the Bears did struggle to cover this exact number when they play Denver on the road in Week 2. Nevertheless, the number seems just a little too low for us and makes the Bears a very appetizing pick in a very crowded and confusing slate of Week 4 games. Take the Bears on Sunday, as they should feed off a jacked crowd and cover against a divisional rival in Minnesota.