Primetime Picture Week 6: 49ers @ Rams
By Peyton Schultze
After a surprise 4-0 start to the season, it’s all fun and games for George Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers in the Bay Area (via Flipboard).
Welcome to the fourth edition of Primetime Picture, our new weekly series featuring the NFL’s game of the week. For this weekend, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and the red-hot San Francisco 49ers head down the California coastline to duke it out with Todd Gurley and the Los Angeles Rams in a battle of NFC West playoff hopefuls (1:05 PM PST, FOX).
Coming out of the gates hot with three straight early season wins, the San Francisco 49ers (4-0) headed onto the primetime stage of Monday Night Football in Week 5 against the Cleveland Browns. Fresh off a Week 4 bye week that gave San Francisco two weeks to prepare for Baker Mayfield and company, the 49ers rolled all night long and destroyed the Browns 31-3 in a very impressive, and equally dominant, performance on both sides of the ball. With both sides of the football ranking in the top five in terms of total yardage throughout the league, the 49ers are simply firing on all cylinders right now and appear to be one of the favorites in the NFC to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. With a dominant defense and an offensive guru in head coach Kyle Shanahan leading the charge for San Francisco, the 49ers have very few weaknesses that could derail their success. A lot of the credit for that team building should belong to general manager John Lynch, who has constructed a solid group of players with a strong foundation of core players such as Richard Sherman, George Kittle, and Jimmy Garoppolo. With that being said, the 49ers have not faced a ton of legitimate competition in the early part of their schedule, with all four of their wins coming against teams that are .500 or worse at the moment. That makes this weekend’s matchup even more intriguing with a threat in the reigning NFC champions, who should give the 49ers all they can handle after a brutal two week stretch of ugly football from Los Angeles.
Speaking of those very same Los Angeles Rams (3-2), back-to-back losses against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Seattle Seahawks have many people around the league questioning just how good the Rams really are this season. Even though Los Angeles also got off to a nice 3-0 start with wins over the Panthers, Saints, and Browns, many people expected a lot better than what they have shown so far. Though Aaron Donald has continued his defensive dominance and the Rams have had other players step up such as Cooper Kupp and Clay Matthews (who is now out indefinitely with a broken jaw), their unexpected struggles have been highlighted in a big way. What has happened to the All-Pro playing style of Todd Gurley through five games? Are Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters capable of stopping any offenses from allowing big plays? Can Jared Goff cut down on his sudden turnover epidemic? Has Sean McVay’s playcalling flair started to fizzle out? The Rams face a ton of scrutiny heading into a big matchup with one of the NFL’s two remaining undefeated teams, which could provide some extra motivation in a game that the Rams would love to steal from their divisional opponent up north. With a quality opponent coming into their home at an inopportune time, it will surely take an “all hands on deck” type of performance to get the Rams’ train back on track as they look to get back to the top of the NFC West.
Richard Sherman and the 49ers’ defense looks like a top five unit capable of causing chaos for opposing offenses (via Flipboard).
In large part due to a running game that ranks 1st in the league at exactly 200 rushing yards per game, San Francisco’s offense is clicking so far in 2019. With a high profile committee of running backs featuring Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert, the 49ers’ offense has been able to soar above their competition and dominate the football offensively in each of their outings. In addition to their awesome run game, the 49ers still have plenty of notable players on offense such as rookie Deebo Samuel and speedster Marquise Goodwin. Another one of their spectacular playmakers is none other than tight end George Kittle, whose speed and athleticism at the position is nearly unmatched by any player in the league right now. With his combo of size, quickness, and catching ability, Kittle is a true star for this team. To add to that, a large credit of this stellar early season play also belongs to franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who has performed reasonably well so far through four games with seven touchdowns and 920 passing yards. If Garoppolo can continue to limit the amount of turnovers he has in every game, this 49ers’ offense has some potential to be one of the more lethal units in the league behind head coach Kyle Shanahan. Throughout his time in the league, Shanahan has been able to use a unique zone-running scheme that places a heavy emphasis on play-action passing, which has led to career years from quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan (who won the league MVP during Shanahan’s time in Atlanta). With the duo of Shanahan and Garoppolo proving to be a successful match that could work for years to come, the 49ers have some true cornerstones in key areas that have helped bring back the Red and Gold to relevancy.
Even though many people expected San Francisco to at least improve on their record from a season ago, few could have predicted just how dominant their defense would turn out to be. Totaling second in the league in terms of total team defense (second against the pass, fifth against the rush), the 49ers have been able to make some huge noise on that side of the ball after a quiet year in 2018. A large part of this sudden dominance has to do with their ability to create turnovers and get after the opposing quarterback. The 49ers’ Week 5 performance against the Browns was an ideal example of this, as San Francisco got after Baker Mayfield all night long and caused some real trouble for a struggling Cleveland offense. With players such as breakout rookie Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead all producing at a high level on the defensive line, this unit has some real potential to wreck some games against good quarterbacks with incompetent offensive lines. In addition to this, the San Francisco secondary has also taken another step this season with studs such as Jimmie Ward and Ahkello Witherspoon playing well thus far. Nevertheless, the 49ers’ headliner on defensive remains Richard Sherman, the ex-Seahawk and future Hall of Famer. As the leader of their defense, Sherman’s veteran experience and still-elite skills have helped this defense become one of the more interesting groups in the league. With an awesome start that has turned heads, watch out for this aggressive defense.
The Rams’ concerning start on offense has many questioning if Los Angeles has any chance of returning to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row (via Flipboard).
Even though the Rams’ offense cruised to a very nice 3-0 start on the season, two straight losses have Rams’ fans very concerned about the state of the team’s offense. A lot of this key blame has been placed upon the shoulders of Jared Goff, whose subpar play through five games has caused a lot of worry after the quarterback signed a massive extension to stay in Los Angeles before the regular season. Behind an offensive line that has failed to replicate their success from a year ago, Goff has thrown seven interceptions and fumbled four times, seemingly becoming turnover prone overnight. Even though Goff has not played great, he needs superstar running back Todd Gurley to return to form. After catching some MVP votes last season, Gurley has surely regressed in a big way and is not one third of the player he was last year. Whether the Rams’ offense decides to centralize their game plan around Gurley once again remains to be seen, but Los Angeles needs Gurley to regain his magic of the past immediately in order to ease the burden off of Goff’s right arm. One major bright spot for this offense through five games has been the stellar play of their wide receiving core. After missing most of last season due to a knee injury, Cooper Kupp has returned in a big way and looks like a legit star if he keeps developing at his own exceptional rate. Kupp helps lead a group of studs such as Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, both of who have unique skillsets that really help make this offense dynamic. Until Goff and Gurley return to their Pro Bowl form, head coach Sean McVay will likely turn to their ballers on the perimeter to dominate their matchups and help carry the LA offense.
Like their offense, the Los Angeles defense played at a high level through three games, but has struggled in their last two games. As usual, defensive tackle Aaron Donald is dominating to the best of his abilities despite constant double (and sometimes triple) teams, but the rest of the defense needs to start performing in order to turn their recent struggles around. Although there are plenty of reasonable holes around, the most glaring issue is the recent play of their secondary. Against Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson in back-to-back weeks, cornerback Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters were consistently torched by the opposing offense and let up some major plays to wide receivers. Talib and Peters are still solid defensive backs capable of turning the corner on their recent issues, but the Rams must fix the problems in the secondary right away to stay in the NFC West race. Another recent problem for the Rams’ defense has been their inability to wrap up and tackle on the initial hit, therefore allowing offensive players to gain extra yardage. As a very rare trait for a Wade Phillips-led defense, Los Angeles must address their tackling woes heading into a tough matchup with some awesome running backs. Also like their offensive performance, there have still been some bright moments that have offered up some hope. Players such as Cory Littleton and Clay Matthews have had very nice seasons so far, although the Rams will miss the veteran Matthews for several weeks with a broken jaw. With Matthews early season sack production now temporarily on hold, the Rams will likely turn to Michael Brockers and Dante Fowler Jr. to fill their void left by the Matthews’ injury. Los Angeles’ defensive struggles may be overexaggerated after the Rams were able to flip their switch on that side of the ball late in the season and in the playoffs last year, but they need something to change in a hurry in order to keep pace in a very good division.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has an opportunity for a nice statistical output against a struggling Rams’ unit on Sunday if he can cut on his interceptions (via Sporting News).
49ers’ Keys to the Game: No Turnovers and Pressure Goff
The 49ers really have all of the momentum heading into the weekend’s matchup, which should give them a huge advantage against a team that just allowed more than 50 points to Tampa Bay two weeks ago. With that being said, if the Niners turn the ball over and give the Rams some hope of handing San Francisco their first loss, this game could take a huge turn and lead to a rough day for Garoppolo and Co. This makes it even more crucial that Garoppolo takes cares of the football and does not force any passes into tight coverage. San Francisco will likely use a heavy dosage of their top ranked running game, creating some ideal situations involving play-action passing with Garoppolo on the move. If the quarterback plays a smart game and does not take any questionable shots down the field against a defense that loves to take some risks, San Francisco may have the advantage. This matchup is so close at the moment that it could easily come down to a play or two, which makes it even more imperative that San Francisco limits its turnovers. Zero turnovers in this game would likely result in a solid win over a struggling opponent, but a loss in the turnover battle could give some hope to the Rams and make this game tight until the end.
All throughout the 2019 season, quarterback Jared Goff has really struggled with pressure in his face. That trait will be tested once again, as San Francisco’s very good pass rush comes into town after rattling Baker Mayfield on Monday Night Football in Week 6. It would not be surprising to see McVay create a lot of quick throws early in the game for Goff, but San Francisco could change that through their traditionally tight coverage. This could eventually force Goff to make some bigger throws from the pocket and hold onto the football for too long. This smells like trouble for Rams’ fans, as the 49ers have real potential to wreck this game with constant pressure in the pocket. Errant throws and a lack of pocket awareness have really tampered Goff’s season thus far, and the 49ers have the ability to expose both of those things in this game. The 49ers have a great chance of winning this game if they can apply consistent pressure on Goff all day long, but it will surely be a tough task against a team that is hungry to get their first win in three weeks.
Aaron Donald and the Rams face a tall task of trying to shut down a 49ers’ offense that looks like a top unit in the league (via Flipboard).
Rams’ Keys to the Game: Give Gurley/Brown the Football and Commit to Stopping the Run
If the Rams want to get back on the winning path and start to turn their season back around, they will need Todd Gurley to step up and be the stud that they need him to be. Unlike Los Angeles’ fellow team up in Chavez Ravine, the Rams can rely on their superstar players such as Aaron Donald and Gurley to show up every week, and they’ll need their franchise running back to have some huge production in order to keep some long drives going and control the time of possession against a very good 49ers’ defense. Gurley is questionable for Sunday, and he has a chance of missing the game. If this is the case, look for running back Malcolm Brown to get the workload in the Rams’ backfield. San Francisco has not really shown any sort of cracks in their run defense through four games, but this is simply about Los Angeles establishing their physicality in the run game once again and returning to the offensive roots. If Gurley/Brown can get 20 or more touches in this game and run for some big yardage, there should be a lot less pressure on Jared Goff and the Rams could focus on their solid play-action based gameplan.
As for the Rams’ defense, they will certainly need to step up to a daunting task of having to stop the 49ers top ranked rushing attack. With a three-headed monster in the backfield, it will be very difficult for Los Angeles to do whatever it takes to stop this San Francisco offense. Nevertheless, this is mostly the same defense that has had major success against running backs such as Ezekiel Elliott and Sony Michel in the past, which could inspire some confidence in the defense. If Los Angeles can really contain the 49ers’ offense and force Garoppolo to win the game for the Niners, the Rams could be in the best possible position to get back in the win column. Failing to do this, however, could result in some major offensive numbers for the 49ers once again, putting an even bigger dent in the suddenly broken down Rams’ defense.
The Rams will need Todd Gurley to have his best performance of the season in order to beat a very good 49er squad (via NewsBug).
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (23) - Los Angeles Rams (24)
This is about as close to a must-win regular season game as the Rams have faced thus far in the Sean McVay era in Los Angeles. With a loss this weekend, the Rams would officially trail the 49ers by three games in the division and would lose some serious ground on their hopes of winning the NFC West once again. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a great chance to take full control of the division from the Rams, and could make a statement by going on the road and beating the reigning NFC champions. The stakes are about as high as possible for a Week 6 game, and the winner will gain a ton of confidence heading forward.
Luckily for the Rams, we think they’ll pull through. Being back at home could be a huge advantage after falling just short a week ago inside the hostile environment of Seattle, and look for the Rams to jump out early within the friendly confines of the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The 49ers have been great on both sides of the ball all season, but they have had some turnover issues that could come back to bite them for the first time this season. If Garoppolo makes the big mistake that he has become somewhat vulnerable to in recent games, this matchup could swing in the Rams’ favor. In addition, the Rams have shown a tendency on defense of trying to make the big, game-changing play, which could come from any one of their star defensive players. Gurley or Brown and Peters (who may have to match up with George Kittle) will be the two superstars of this game, with 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown for whichever running back starts and an interception for their top cornerback. The Rams will not put up huge points this weekend, but ball control and time of possession will be the difference as the Rams look to capture their fourth, and most important, win of the young season.
Betting: San Francisco (+3.5) @ Los Angeles
It was a little surprising seeing the undefeated 49ers opening up as 3.5 point underdogs on the road to a struggling team, but it is clear that Vegas still has a ton of respect for the Rams. Even though the 49ers are off to an awesome start, they have not faced a great schedule and the Rams will be the best team they have played to date. With that being said, the 49ers are playing like the better football team right now and the Rams are playing with their backs against the wall. While that could mean that the Rams will explode on Sunday, recent history shows that this matchup should at least be relatively close. With San Francisco playing so well and with hundreds of 49er fans likely flooding the gates of the Coliseum, it is easy to picture the 49ers either coming out on top or falling just short of a huge win. That means that you should definitely bet the number in this case, as the 3.5 points could be the difference in an underdog cover that we think will be even tighter than Vegas thinks. We picked Los Angeles to win, but do not be surprised if this game is won toward the end of regulation or heads into overtime on a game-winning kick. Take the 49ers this weekend if you dare to bet this game, even if Los Angeles is able to come back and squeak it out at the end.