By: Peyton Schultze

With an All-Pro performance by Saints’ WR, Michael Thomas, New Orleans was able to escape the Divisional Round with a 20-14 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Back in November, we all figured it would come down to this. After virtually dominating the NFC for the majority of the year, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints will finally meet each other once again in the NFC Championship Game with a chance to go to the Super Bowl on the line. A rematch of the Week 9 shootout between the two top seeded teams in the NFC, both teams will finally get another crack at one another and meet on Sunday afternoon in the Superdome (12:05 PT, FOX). With this stakes this high and everything to lose, the two teams figure to put on a show between The Greatest Show on Turf 2.0 and the Boys in the Bayou.

Yet it has been a long road to this point in the NFL season, especially in the NFC. The Cowboys and Bears once looked like formidable threats that could reach the conference championship, perhaps even the Super Bowl. The Seattle Seahawks resurged and had the making of a conference sleeper. Even the mystical Nick Foles made another historic run with the Philadelphia Eagles before finally falling last weekend in New Orleans. But here we are, as many analysts predicted during the mid-season, with a clear matchup between the two best teams of the NFC in 2018.

Our complete analysis of both teams in this high-stakes game, breakdown of the exciting matchups, recap of how both teams got here, and predictions for what ought to be a classic battle.

How They Got Here

Los Angeles Rams

With a great offense including a strong running game featuring the game’s best back in Todd Gurley (#30), the Rams had a terrific regular season and were able to pull off an impressive win in the Divisional Round over the Cowboys.

What a ride it has been so far this season for the Los Angeles Rams. In only their third season back in the city of Los Angeles and second season under football wunderkind Sean McVay, the Rams are back in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since their 2002 conference championship game victory over Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. In a city that expects the highest out of their professional sports teams such as the Dodgers and Lakers, the Rams have exceeded expectations in their short return to LA and find themselves with a chance to solidify their status amongst Los Angeles’ traditioned sports lore.

Often perceived as flashy and innovative, the Rams took the league by storm in 2017 with their first NFC West title since the 2004 season. Although they would eventually lose over Wild Card Weekend to Matt Ryan and the experienced Atlanta Falcons, the Rams set the tone that they were a real threat that teams now had to take seriously. Featuring the likes of the eccentric McVay, the ever-so-dominant defensive tackle in Aaron Donald, and their rising star at quarterback in Jared Goff, the Rams rose through the ranks of the league to become a legit team to be reckoned with in the future.

But the future arrived quicker than most people expected. Instead of taking a step back this season, the Rams stepped into another gear on their quest for a second straight NFC West title and 13-3 overall record. Yet it has not always been sunny in Los Angeles for the Rams this season. Although they started hot with an 8-0 record, the Rams started to cool down towards the tail end of the season. Especially with a terrible loss in Chicago where the Rams were exposed and gashed by the Bears, many critics within the media started to doubt the Rams as a real contender for a Lombardi Trophy. Yet even though they finished rather mediocre and Jared Goff struggled towards the end of his season, the Rams were able to throttle the Dallas Cowboys on the ground last weekend in an impressive 30-22 win over the red-hot ‘Boys. Only time will tell if these Rams have the makings of a true Super Bowl champion, but their journey for the second championship in franchise history continues this weekend against New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game.

New Orleans Saints

Reminiscent of the last time the Saints won a Super Bowl in 2010, New Orleans is loaded on both sides of the ball. In their first return to the NFC Championship since beating a seasoned Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings in that fateful Super Bowl season, the Saints are poised to make a run at also securing their second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. Members of Who Dat Nation have once again rejoiced in their team’s overwhelming success and hope to see their Saints make only their second all-time appearance in the Super Bowl in two weeks.

Last year, after three straight mediocre 7-9 finishes, the Saints finally returned to glory by finishing 11-5 and capturing the NFC South crown. Already secured on both sides of the ball with marquee players such as Drew Brees and Cameron Jordan, the Saints figured to at least be competitive, but not contenders. However, the Saints collected a plethora of outstanding and young players in the 2017 NFL Draft, such as Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore, that propelled the Saints into the playoffs and set the franchise in a great position going forward for their near and distant future. However, after holding off the rival Carolina Panthers in the Wild card Round in the 2017 Playoffs, the Saints would eventually lose 29-24 in the Divisional Round to the Minnesota Vikings on the infamous “Minnesota Miracle” play. Although heartbreak occurred, the Saints had a full offseason of recovery to rebound from their devastating loss to use as motivation coming into this season.

But this season, the Saints are a different animal. Although the Saints returned basically their entire roster from last year, the Saints became a football juggernaut in 2018 on their way to a 13-3 record and the top seed in the conference. While other young phenoms have also taken the league by storm, Brees has once again put on a show for New Orleans, displaying his own MVP case with a gaudy stat line and leading the Saints to the best record in the NFL. Yet their defense has also had a major say in their success, ranking as a top unit in the league against the run and being capable of manhandling opposing offensive lines, led by Jordan. Add that to an offense with Brees, Kamara, and All-Pro WR, Michael Thomas, and the Saints seemed positioned to possibly capture another Super Bowl trophy. After nearly falling to the defending champion Eagles last week in New Orleans, the Saints look forward to a rematch with the dynamic Rams, whom they faced earlier in the season in Week 9. As they head into the conference championship round, New Orleans is hungry for more and hoping to make a Super Bowl appearance for the first time since 2010.

Previous Matchups

Both teams have split their two latest matchups, with New Orleans winning the most recent in Week 9 of this season.

Coming into this weekend’s conference championship, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints have some recent history with versions of their current rosters. Since 2016 when Jared Goff and the Rams headed back to Los Angeles, New Orleans owns a 2-1 advantage over LA in their head-to-head battles.

Back in 2016, the Saints throttled the Rams 49-21 in the Superdome. Behind a 4 touchdown performance from Brees, the Saints’ offense was able to dominate the Rams and put on an impressive display. However, Jared Goff, in just his second career start, was able to put on a decent show for LA with 214 yards and 3 TDs.

Heading into 2017, the Rams and Saints would once again meet, this time at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. With New Orleans going into the game on an eight game winning streak, the Saints’ offense had loads of momentum featuring the great play of Brees and running back, Alvin Kamara. However, Goff and the Rams would put on one of their marquee performances of the season, ending in a 26-20 win for Los Angeles and solidifying their status as an upcoming team in the league.

Yet this season, both organizations would meet in one of the top-billed matchup of the early season on November 4th. With the Rams undefeated at 8-0 and the Saints on a six game winning streak heading into their Week 9 battle, both teams needed a win to own a huge advantage for the top seed in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In an absolute shootout between both quarterbacks, the Saints would finally pull away late and secure a 45-35 win in the Superdome, partially in part to the efforts of Michael Thomas, whose 12 catches and 211 yards led the way for New Orleans. Although the Saints captured an impressive win, the Rams would have several self-inflicted wounds that ultimately caused their downfall and hurt their chances of the #1 seed in the conference.

Quarterback Matchup

Jared Goff

Although Jared Goff at times had a winding season for the Rams, he still compiled a spectacular stat line for a potent Los Angeles’ offense. On their way to a 13-3 record and the second best record in the league, the Rams’ quarterback looked like a legitimate MVP contender at times throughout the year. With a 64.9% completion percentage, 4,688 yards, and 32 TDs, Goff improved off his solid campaign last year to once again show that he belongs in the conversation as another one of the young and emerging quarterbacks found in the modern-day National Football League.

Yet while Goff struggled in four of his last five regular season games (6 TDs, 6 INTs), he still managed to put on several primetime performances throughout the source of the season to put himself amongst the game’s elite signal callers. Perhaps no game epitomized Goff’s season and short career more than his Week 11 performance against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. While Goff had 2 fumbles and made some questionable reads at times, the young quarterback put up 54 points for the LA offense while managing to throw for 413 yards and 4 TDs. Performances like this in a big Los Angeles sports market have made Goff one of the true rising superstars in the league and solidified his place as a true face of the franchise for the future of the LA Rams.

Drew Brees

Brees, the leader of the New Orleans Saints, had another season for the ages, once again showing that he belongs in Canton to join the game’s greatest once his playing career is over.

Another year and another dominant season for the best player in the history of the New Orleans Saints franchise. After a magnificent 2017 season that resulted in a NFC South crown, Brees followed up this season with an even better one. On his way to a 74.4% completion percentage (a new NFL record for a single season), 3,992 yards, and 32 TDs, Brees once again showed the league why he is considered one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history.

Hoping to possibly secure his first MVP award in his illustrious career this season (if voters decide to give the award to Brees instead of young phenom, Patrick Mahomes), Brees led the Saints to the best record in the league and home field advantage throughout. With a dynamic offense featuring Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, Brees was even able to spread the ball around to a wide range of targets that made the Saints ever-so-deadly and a team to be reckoned with. Even though Brees has been awesome for the majority of his outstanding NFL career, what has really stood out in recent seasons is his model consistency. Dating all the way back to 2004 when he still wore a San Diego Charger uniform, Brees has topped 20 TDs in every season and carried some of the best offenses in the league year in and year out. With his record-breaking showcases over the past few years (including breaking Peyton Manning’s record for career passing yards this season), Brees has truly shown how great he really is, even in the back end of his superb career.

X-Factors

Aqib Talib

Likely to shadow Michael Thomas throughout the game, Talib ought to be a huge factor in the NFC Championship Game for the Los Angeles rams

In their Week 9 matchup this season, Michael Thomas of the Saints ended up putting up an unreal stat line with 12 catches and 211 yards. After opposite corner, Marcus Peters of the Rams, had one of the worst defensive performances of the 2018 season against Thomas, Los Angeles will likely put their prized offseason acquisition, Aqib Talib, on Thomas for most of the game, especially after he missed their last matchup against New Orleans with an ankle injury. A Super Bowl champion with the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, Talib is a seasoned veteran in postseason play that was acquired for this exact moment when the Rams faced a top receiving threat and needed to contain him. Especially after Thomas also went off last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, Talib will need to have a great performance against the Saints in order for the Rams to have a chance on defense.

Andrus Peat

Last weekend, left guard, Andrus Peat of the Saints, was seen in pain several times over the course of the game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Against one of the best defensive lines in the league featuring the likes of the great Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, the Saints allowed 2 sacks of Brees and allowed some rushers to collapse the pocket. Yet the Rams pose a different beast that few teams have an answer for. With the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald, the Rams have the best interior line threat in the league that can absolutely wreck games. Add in opposite lineman, Ndamukong Suh (who finally played great last weekend), and the Rams figure to be lethal on their defensive front. Not only will the Saints need a reasonably healthy version of Peat, but they will need him to have a great game against whichever interior lineman he is matched up against and win the one-on-one matchups to give Brees time to throw. If he is seriously hurt throughout or fails to do so, there could be a lot of trouble in the works for the Saints.

Matchup to Watch

McVay’s Offensive Scheme vs Allen’s Defense

Sean McVay faces a tall task schematically against a ferocious Saints’ run defense ranked

After a full blown annihilation of the Cowboys’ defensive line last week, the Rams face a tough task against the 2nd ranked run defense in the league (80.2 YPG). Yet last week showed how willing the Rams are to change their schemes to expose a flaw in an opposing team’s defense.

A false narrative throughout the league is that the Rams are a flashy and explosive team that relies on medium to deep passes to create big plays. This is purely false. The Rams, as they showed last week, are foundationally built as a power running team that confuses defenses with misdirection and the threat of a receiver end-around run. In prior weeks, Los Angeles has used a wide range of stretch and counter runs with CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley to open up their play action game to get the ball into the hands of their phenomenal WRs in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks and make life easier for Jared Goff. Last week, head coach, Sean McVay, stirred up a creative game plan that attacked the weakness of the Cowboys’ defense on the edge and in between the tackles. With one of the best offensive lines in the league, the Rams once again used this same offensive formula to overwhelm a very good Dallas’ defense and secure a Divisional Round win.

The challenge for the Rams this week is that New Orleans’ strength is their defense against the run. Defensive coordinator of the Saints, Dennis Allen, is an aggressive coach who relies on a lot of man coverage on the outside and focuses on shutting down the run of opposing teams, as the Saints’ explosive offense often takes early leads and forces oppositions to throw early. For McVay, he will have to come up with a plan to counter the challenge the Saints present and get their playmakers into space. Expect the Rams to use a wide variety of screens on the outside and to Gurley this week, as well as using Anderson between the tackles. The Rams want to control this game through time of possession and by keeping Drew Brees off the field, so it will be critical to see how the matchup between McVay and Allen develops over the course of the conference championship game.

Vegas Odds

New Orleans (-3.5) vs Los Angeles

Brees and the New Orleans Saints are favored over the Rams this weekend in the Superdome.

This weekend, Las Vegas oddsmakers have the New Orleans Saints favored by 3.5 points over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. With the 3.5 points, Vegas is essentially daring people to pick the rams, even after their early-season loss to the Saints in Week 9. However, the underdog may have a great chance at an upset, especially when it comes to betting. The Rams come into the game with several key matchup advantages that they did not own in the first matchup (such as Talib) and should be able to stop the Saints’ offense more than they were able to last time, especially since New Orleans has only put up more than 30 points once since Thanksgiving. However, there is still one outlying factor in this game: home field advantage for the Saints in the Superdome. This seems to be scaring away bettors for the Rams as it is hard to see the Rams escaping the rowdy New Orleans crowd with a win.

Yet this game should be tight until the end. The Rams had an impressive win last weekend against Dallas, while New Orleans struggled against Philadelphia. It also helps that the Rams are getting a second look at the Saints that could help them make several changes, especially defensively. While it is hard to predict the winner, taking the Rams at 3.5 points seems to be a steal and would be a wise bet for bettors in the NFC Championship Game.

Prediction

Rams (31) - Saints (28)

The NFC Championship Game figures to be a classic battle between two outstanding teams.

This game could be one for the ages. The last time the Saints were in the NFC Championship Game, they were involved in an overtime duel between two of the best quarterbacks ever in Brees and Favre that would end in a 31-28 win for New Orleans. While that game was years ago and has little resemblance to now, both teams were top dogs in the NFC throughout that season. This year has been a long journey for both the Saints and the Rams, with lots of highs and even a few lows for both sides.

While both offenses are great, and the defenses formidable, this game could likely come down to coaching and which coach is able to expose the opposing team’s weakness consistently. Last matchup, Sean Payton won the battle by airing it out to Michael Thomas and shredding Marcus Peters and the Rams’ secondary.

This time, however, it will be different. While Payton and the Saints will come out strong with a heavy dose of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara behind a crazy home crowd, Sean McVay and the Rams will have a great plan in place to keep Brees off the field and grind out long drives. The Rams perform at their best in comfortable environments and while the Saints’ crowd will be hostile, Goff and Co. will be able to control the clock and create some big plays in a dome setting with weather being a non-factor. For the Rams offense, Goff’s poise in the pocket will be critical. If he is able to stay composed and deliver the ball to his weapons around the field efficiently and on-time, the Rams will be in great shape

But this game will likely come down to which team controls the line of scrimmage. While the Saints have an awesome defense that has made big plays all year, the Rams have the best defensive player in the league who wants to show his Canton-bound skillset in two weeks on the biggest stage in Atlanta. Donald and the Rams defense may not stop Brees and the Saints’ offense, but they will make just enough plays to make the Saints’ play from behind for most of the second half. For the sake of nostalgia, the score will once again be 31-28 in the NFC Championship Game, but with the Rams coming out on top and making their first Super Bowl appearance since 2002.

NFC Championship Game Preview