By: Peyton Schultze

Tom Brady and the Patriots hope to make their 3rd straight Super Bowl appearance with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Patriots. Chiefs. January. Sound familiar? This weekend, the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots travel to Arrowhead Stadium to duel with Andy Reid’s dynamic Kansas City Chiefs. As two franchises that are simply accustomed to playoff football at this point, a wild shootout or a hard fought battle could take place in the AFC Championship Game this weekend, with a trip to the Super Bowl up for grabs. A rematch of the wild Week 6 battle in Foxborough that resulted with the Patriots clinging on for a 43-40 win, the teams meet again with high aspirations and everything imaginable on the line.

When the Patriots and Chiefs kickoff on Sunday afternoon (3:40 PM PT, CBS), a cold, arctic rush is expected to flow throughout Arrowhead and potentially play a role in the highly anticipated matchup between the AFC’s best. While it is unknown how both teams will adapt to the weather, both teams will roll out potent offenses and capable defenses that have played better and better each week as the season starts to come to a close. Both teams will be tested, as they have been all year, and hope to individually take that last step until finally reaching Super Bowl LIII. The Chiefs, while owning the AFC’s best record, are still being doubted by many due to the youth of their star quarterback and their defense’s lack of consistency to stop opposing offenses. Meanwhile, the Patriots are lurking and hoping to once again make another Super Bowl trip after largely being doubted by analysts and members of the media for the majority of the NFL season. Stakes are enormous and tensions should be running high, leaving the mystery of who will prevail in Sunday’s conference championship matchup.

Our complete analysis of both teams in this enticing matchup, breakdown of crucial matchups, recap of how both teams got here, and predictions for what is expected to be an epic conference championship between two great football teams.

How They Got Here

New England Patriots

Although New England had a strange regular season with some unusual and uncharacteristic losses, the Patriots still loom as a major threat for a Super Bowl title led by one of the greatest players to ever strap up, Tom Brady.

Another year and another January push towards the Super Bowl for the New England Patriots. For the five time Super Bowl champions, high-drama playoff football is nothing new, which could bode well for the defending AFC champions’ confidence heading into the AFC Championship Game. With crunch time looming, New England comes into the weekend without a single loss in AFC playoff football since the 2016 AFC Championship Game, which resulted in a 20-18 loss to Peyton Manning and the Broncos behind 77,112 strong in Denver, Colorado. Yet things have largely been strange for the rarely mistake-prone Patriots. Fluke or not, New England has had a wild ride over the past two seasons that has started to reveal cracks in the Patriots’ seemingly indestructible armor.

However, since their loss to Denver in 2016, New England has continued to consistently reign over the rest of the NFL. With a gigantic comeback against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, New England captured their fifth Super Bowl title in franchise history. Followed up with an outstanding MVP campaign in 2017 from Tom Brady, New England once again rolled throughout the regular season on their way to a 13-3 record and the top seed in the AFC. With a Divisional Round win over Tennessee and a victory in come-from-behind thriller against Jacksonville in the AFC Championship, New England once again found themselves in the Super Bowl against the underdog Philadelphia Eagles. However, the Patriots would allow Eagles’ backup quarterback, Nick Foles, to shred their poor defense throughout the contest, highlighted by the infamous “Philly Special” play call at the end of the second quarter. Ultimately, Brady would wind up fumbling on a strip sack late in the fourth quarter by Brandon Graham, therefore resulting in a 41-33 loss that secured the Eagles’ first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Yet this season, the Patriots began with a slow start, with disappointing losses to the lowlife Jaguars and inconsistent Lions in two of the first three weeks. However, New England would only lose three more games over the rest of the regular season on their way to another AFC East title, first round bye and second seed in the AFC. But the regular season did not come without controversy. Although Brady and the Patriots’ offense was just as good as usual and their defensive secondary became a feared unit around the league, New England still struggled at times, especially on the road with key losses to Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Miami on the last-second “Miami Miracle” play in Week 14. However, Brady and the Patriots silenced their doubters last weekend in the Divisional Round with a decisive 41-28 win over the 12-4 Los Angeles Chargers. New England grounded the Chargers’ offense for most of the game, while Brady, with help from James White and Julian Edelman, were able to carve up the Bolts’ defense. New England was undefeated at home this year, but have struggled on the road, going only 3-5. So can they really secure a huge win on the road this weekend in one of the toughest environments in the league?

Kansas City Chiefs

Year after year, Kansas City has continued to make the playoffs, yet fail practically right away. However, the Chiefs were finally able to clear a major hurdle in the Divisional Round and now find themselves in the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1994, a game that resulted in a 30-13 loss against Jim Kelly and the Buffalo Bills. Playoff success has been hard to come by for the Chiefs in recent years, yet none of their seasons in the past seemed as destined to finish in a Super Bowl victory than their season right now. While the roster is filled with young talent that will continue to develop into elite stars for years to come, the time may be now or never for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to win a title for a restless fan base and emerge as a dominant threat in the AFC for years to come.

Since 2014, the Chiefs have gone 2-4 in the AFC playoffs, with this year being their first appearance in the conference championship in that time span. Yet in 2017, Kansas City seemed poised to finally take the next step towards a Super Bowl championship with an elite young roster and veteran quarterback, Alex Smith, at the helm for the Chiefs. After a red-hot 5-0 start to the season, Kansas City would eventually cool off, yet capture the AFC West and the fourth seed in the AFC playoffs. But after holding a 21-3 lead at halftime over the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round, Kansas City would fall apart and wind up losing 22-21 in one of the most disappointing losses in franchise history. The Chiefs faced major changes in the coming offseason after their playoff collapse, which would force the Chiefs’ hand and send Smith to the Washington Redskins and look towards their young quarterback drafted in the 2017 NFL Draft to be the team’s lead signal caller in the 2018 season.

After years of disappointing play year in and year out from the Chiefs, 2018 became somewhat of an anomaly for Kansas City. Led by their new and young quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs cruised through the regular season with a 12-4 record, capturing the AFC West for a third straight season and holding on to the top seed in the AFC. While Mahomes has put up an MVP-like season for the Chiefs, an offense loaded with weapons such as Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill has helped recharge the city of Kansas City to bring hope of a possible Super Bowl to a loyal fanbase cursed with prior playoff failures. In part, Kansas City was finally able to lock up a playoff win last weekend in a 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts, easing the worries of Chiefs’ fans and exciting them for a matchup with the mighty New England Patriots. It has been a long time coming for the Kansas City Chiefs to finally get into the position they are in right now. But can they finally top the AFC’s best team over the past decade and take down Brady and the Patriots?

Previous Matchups

The Chiefs own an 18-15-3 record in the all-time series over the Patriots (Sports Illustrated). — The Chiefs own an 18-15-3 record in the all-time series over the Patriots (*Sports Illustrated*).

Although the two franchises have faced over 36 times in their head-to-head all-time series, this will only be the second playoff matchup between the Patriots and Chiefs. While the Chiefs own the lead in the series 18-15-3, the Patriots won their only playoff matchup back in the Divisional Round in the 2016 playoffs, 27-20, behind 302 yards and 2 TDs from Tom Brady.

However, the last time the Patriots played at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs throttled the Patriots 41-14 on an early season September matchup on Monday Night Football. That night, then-quarterback Alex Smith would throw three touchdowns and the Chiefs’ defense would force Brady into two poor interceptions and limiting him to only 159 yards. While the Patriots were exposed by the Chiefs that night and analysts would call for the end of the Patriots’ dynasty, New England would eventually triumph later on in the season by advancing to Super Bowl XLIX and securing their 4th ring in franchise history with an exciting victory over Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.

In addition, the Chiefs would pummel the Patriots again in Week 1 of the 2017 regular season opener in Foxborough, MA. Behind 368 yards and four touchdowns from Alex Smith, the Chiefs were able to shock New England once again and upset a Patriot team that many expected to have a close-to-undefeated year. However, flash forward to this year in Week 6 and the script was flipped. In one of the true shootouts of the 2018 regular season, the New England Patriots were able to hold off a late Patrick Mahomes’ rally and grasp a 43-40 win over the-then 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs. In a shootout between the oldest quarterback and one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league, both signal callers would throw for 300+ yards and combine for a total of five passing touchdowns between the two. However, the biggest key in New England’s win happened to be rookie running back, Sony Michel. Michel would tally 106 yards on 24 carries to go along with two touchdowns that would help guide the Pats to a huge AFC home win. After several disappointing results against Kansas City in past years, the Patriots’ thrilling Week 6 win could give them a lot of confidence heading on the road this upcoming weekend against the top seeded Chiefs.

Quarterback Matchup

Tom Brady

As far as quarterbacks go throughout NFL history, few are as accomplished as the great quarterback residing in New England. The five-time Super Bowl champion has had a strange season according to his normal standards, but that may just because of how high he has set the bar. While Brady’s numbers certainly dipped from his 2017 MVP campaign, Tom still managed to throw for 4,355 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions with a QB rating of 97.7 (.1 higher than his career quarterback rating average). While he is surrounded by perhaps the weakest receiving crew of his illustrious career, Brady still found a way to secure a Pro Bowl berth and lead the Patriots to an 11-5 record in the wild AFC.

But at this point in his career, people around the league already know what they are getting out of Brady. While his yards per attempt are lower than most of his career (only 7.6 Y/A, 14th in the NFL) and he often relies on short to intermediate routes to James White to complete and extend drives, Brady brings fire and intensity to each and every game that no player in the league, possibly even league history, has been able to match whatsoever. Adding this drive and killer instinct into postseason play just makes Brady even more dangerous, which has helped guide the organization to five Super Bowl wins, all led by the elite quarterback. While head coach, Bill Belichick, certainly deserves credit for developing brilliant schemes every week over the past two decades, it has been Brady that has extended his own longevity to continue the Patriots’ reign over much of the NFL. With his all-time 28 wins in postseason play to go along with 10,569 passing yards and 72 touchdowns, Brady may be considered the NFL’s greatest postseason performer ever. That should strike fear into all three of the remaining teams left in postseason play, as the experienced, 41-year old quarterback has seen it all in the twilight of his Canton-bound career. With that being said, even in a supposedly down year, expect Tom Brady and the Patriots to absolutely be ready to go for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City.

Patrick Mahomes

For the likely Most Valuable Player of the National Football League in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has been purely special. Sure, Matt Ryan had an outstanding year in his 2016 MVP season that resulted in a Super Bowl appearance. Even Tom Brady had a great year last season for the Patriots in his MVP year. But what Mahomes has done this season has rarely been seen in NFL history. Taking the league by storm, the 23-year old star has led the Chiefs to a 12-4 record and the top seed in the AFC with a mix of no-look passes, evasive scrambles, and rocket throws that couldn’t even be made by some of the best catchers in Major League Baseball. Oh, and there’s the fact that Mahomes has thrown for 5,097 yards, 50 passing touchdowns and a league-leading 82.0 QBR (ESPN’s quarterback rating metric). Mahomes has had a spectacular year filled with excitement and pure joy, but can he top it off with a win over New England?

Call him the Steph Curry of the NFL, but it is hard to deny that Patrick Mahomes is currently the league’s most exciting and talented young player. Although he is a lightning rod for the Chiefs, the NFL’s most explosive offense, and has a can’t-miss factor that few athletes possess, Mahomes showed something different in the Divisional Round. Even though the youngster did not throw a touchdown pass, Mahomes had several effective drives that were perfectly managed as if he was a veteran quarterback with multiple playoff starts. Not trying to throw into very tight windows and using an effective snap count to get the Colts offsides five times throughout the game were a gigantic part of Mahomes’ game on Saturday afternoon, once again showing just how versatile the quarterback is and can be. The Patriots will likely use a lot of defensive backs this weekend against Mahomes and a similar game plan of what the Patriots used to use effectively against a younger Peyton Manning. This will present a major challenge not only in Andy Reid’s play calling, but Mahomes’ patience to take what the defense gives him. Yet everything we have seen so far out of Mahomes’ season has proven just how adaptable the star has been to the situations he has been thrown into. This fire will be hard to extinguish, but no player in the league may be more up for the challenge New England presents him than the likely MVP of 2018.

X-Factors

Sony Michel

Throughout the season, New England has often returned to a ground-and-pound running approach to ease the pressure off of Brady that was seen in the earlier years of the Patriot dynasty. With that being said, the Patriots possess a solid offensive line and the Chiefs have struggled against the run all year, allowing 132.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season (27th in the NFL). The Patriots have had their fair share of shocking game plans over the years, but with a vulnerable defense that is coming off their best game of the season and a fast Chiefs’ offense, New England will likely want to grind out long drives to keep Mahomes off the field. This starts with running back, Sony Michel. If Michel can help the Patriots dominate the time of possession and keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field, the Patriots will have a legit chance of stealing a win in Arrowhead. New England would prefer to avoid a shootout with the explosive Chiefs at all costs and have a much better chance of creating a game plan built on controlling the clock and exposing a weak run defense displayed throughout the regular season. Although the Chiefs were able to just stop Marlon Mack and the Colts’ run game, expect New England to look towards their rookie back to help guide them to a bruising and gritty win in the cold temperatures of Kansas City.

Tyreek Hill

As always when the Chiefs play, Tyreek Hill remains the biggest x-factor for a Kansas City offense that led the league in points per game during the regular season (35.3 PPG). The speedy wide receiver had an incredible year with 87 receptions, 1,479 yards, and 12 touchdowns and has been a treat for Patrick Mahomes to have in his first full season under center. Yet the reason Hill is such a x-factor that causes problems for defenses is the way that Andy Reid uses him all around the field. With a variety of motions to get him moving and jet sweeps to get him into open space with his blow-by track speed, Hill has the ability to score any time he touches the football whether is be catching or running. This could be a major problem for New England, as they have been a rather slow defense up the middle and could struggle to contain Hill on a variety of sweeps and screens. In addition, if Hill breaks away for any long touchdowns (as he did in Week 6 with 142 yards and three TDs) after a long New England drive, the Patriots’ plan to grind out possessions could come back to haunt them with the Chiefs’ ability to score quickly. Reid always finds a way to deploy Hill effectively and New England must find a way to at least contain Hill if they want a shot at upsetting Kansas City.

Matchup to Watch

Chiefs’ Secondary vs Tom Brady and Patriots’ WRs

The Chiefs’ defense has struggled for the majority of the year, but comes into the AFC Championship Game fresh off their best defensive outing of the season.

Between both conference championship games, this is the single most meaningful matchup of all. Last week, Chargers’ defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, and company came up with a terrible game plan against one of the smarter quarterbacks of all-time. The Chargers, for whatever reason, decided to strictly play zone for most of the afternoon, which resulted in Tom Brady quickly carving up the Bolts’ defense drive after drive. However, this is not because he had all day to throw or because the Chargers’ pass rushers were not winning some of their matchups. Instead, Brady masterfully evaded any type of quarterback hit by quickly slinging the ball out to one of his WRs or RBs, such as James White. White finished the game with 15 receptions and New England was able to cruise on offense all day long with Brady affectively slicing the Chargers’ defense. This week, the Chiefs can not make that same mistake.

If the Chiefs want to get to the Super Bowl, they must game plan based off Brady’s past struggles instead of trying to create something original as the Chargers did by utilizing seven defensive backs. Look at the teams the Patriots have struggled with in the past. The Denver Broncos. The New York Giants. Even the Philadelphia Eagles somewhat in the Super Bowl. What do they have in common? They were able to play man coverage and bump the receivers at the line of scrimmage to throw off Brady’s timing, all while only rushing four towards the quarterback. The Chiefs certainly have this ability even with a somewhat weak secondary, as Kansas City was tied for the league lead in sacks during the regular season (52.0) and were even able to get past the Colts’ mighty offensive line last weekend for 3 sacks. At this point in his career, it is virtually impossible to confuse Brady with zone looks. Yet, if Kansas City can jam the Patriots relatively weak wide receiving corps and at least put pressure in Brady’s face to force him to step up in the pocket and deliver balls downfield, the Chiefs will have a gigantic advantage that could certainly shift the outcome of the football game.

Vegas Odds

Kansas City (-3.0) vs New England

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs may be underdogs in the minds of many analysts, but are being favored over New England in Vegas for their matchup in the AFC Championship Game.

In Vegas this weekend, oddsmakers are putting the Kansas City Chiefs as a 3.0 favorite over the deadly New England Patriots. In reality, this game is very difficult to predict due to New England’s experience and prior postseason success, but also the pure domination of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs throughout the season. New England should not be counted out of this game by any stretch, which makes this game extremely hard to bet on. Yet after the Chiefs’ defensive performance last week and their one-week time period where they can learn off the mistakes of the Los Angeles Chargers, they could easily be a solid bet. Yet many bettors will live and die with the playoff versions of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, which is perfectly fine and understandable.

But the most challenging thing about this game, in terms of the Patriots side, may be the home-field advantage that the Chiefs have at Arrowhead Stadium. This past week, a sports talk analyst, Colin Cowherd, claimed that the Chiefs’ fan base would not be as loud due to the projected cold that is supposed to wipe through Kansas City on Sunday night. This is absolutely foolish. Kansas City may have the loudest stadium in the National Football League, and their fans will certainly be ready for their first AFC Championship Game appearance since the ‘90s. This could create problems for Brady, who is only 3-4 on the road in his postseason career with only 8 touchdowns to 8 interceptions (CBS Sports). In addition, Brady has also lost his last three true road postseason starts, with the last one dating back to 2016 at the boisterous Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. If that is any indication, the Chiefs may be the better bet here, but proceed with caution on anything.

Prediction

Chiefs (38) - Patriots (30)

Is the AFC Championship Game the beginning of a new rivalry in the league?

This game could symbolize one of two things: the continuing of one of the greatest dynasties in sports or perhaps the true passing of the torch in the league. For years, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning seemingly carried the NFL with their two intertwined careers that rank among the best in league history. But then, Manning retired, leaving Brady basically unchallenged and alone at the top. Other players such as Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson have certainly displayed their greatness on numerous occasions, but have been unable to reach the peak point of glory as often as Brady with his five rings. With Brady and the Patriots sitting on the throne for years now, few challengers have actually presented themselves as legitimate and a true threat to possibly ending the Patriot dynasty.

Until now. This time, it might be for real. Patrick Mahomes has had a marvelous year for Kansas City, while New England has been up and down for a majority of the season. For years, many people have recognized the greatness of Brady and Belichick. Now, those same people are becoming fascinated with Mahomes and the things that he can do on the field. If there is one player and one team that seems as if they can finally end the Patriots’ dynasty, then this is it. The Patriots may be as vulnerable as they have ever been, and Brady only has so many years left of pure greatness left in his right arm, leaving the door open for a new star to finally rise and challenge the AFC’s best.

Which brings us to this game in an epic duel between young and old. Flashy and old-school. Perhaps even good and evil for some non-Patriot fans. For the Patriots, it will be hard to replicate their near-perfect performance from last week against Los Angeles. But Belichick will make sure the Patriots are well-prepared and still come to play on Sunday. But this game will not come down to the Patriots’ overall performance. No, it will practically come down to one thing: can Patrick Mahomes limit his back-breaking mistakes and score effectively to limit the Patriots’ offense? If Mahomes makes several mistakes as he did in their Week 6 matchup, it will be tough to overcome the playoff-seasoned Brady who will surely at least play solid and likely limit his turnovers. If Mahomes avoids trouble, the Chiefs will be well-positioned and could actually pull it off to end the Patriots’ season once and for all. And he will. Despite the frigid temperatures, the magnificent Mahomes will once again do it again, throwing for four scores and shredding the Patriots’ defense in their second meeting of the season to officially cement himself as one of sports’ true emerging superstars. The Chiefs will also cause a few Brady mistakes due to a ferocious pass rush, and give the Chiefs the ball back quickly and back into the hands of Mahomes. In the end, Brady will attempt to make another comeback to add to his amazing career, but will ultimately be unable to. On Sunday night, the Chiefs will officially prevent the Patriots from finishing their quest to complete their Infinity Gauntlet of Super Bowl titles and reach their first Super Bowl since 1970 in one of the best AFC Championship Games of all-time.

AFC Championship Game Preview