NFL Weekly Wonder Vol. 6 - Week 12
By Peyton Schultze
Despite their loss last week to the Chiefs, the Cowboys once again highlight an awesome Thanksgiving Day slate of games (via Dallas Morning News).
One of the highlights of the NFL season is here at last: Thanksgiving Day. A Thursday holiday and a weekend full of outstanding fun and football is always a treat for diehard fans, especially with some entertaining matchups and major stakes for the weekend. With the playoff pictures in the AFC and NFC starting to become more clear and the contenders and pretenders separating from one another, we should have much more clarity after this week regarding which teams will be in the middle of the hunt in January and February.
But with that said, what does this great slate of games in Week 12 look like? Will the injury-riddled Cowboys overcome their issues on Thanksgiving against the Raiders? Will the Bills finally put an end to their recent cold streak versus the Saints? Can the Colts ride their momentum to a huge road win over TB12 and the Buccaneers? Will the Rams go into Lambeau Field and pull off a huge NFC win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers? And can Lamar Jackson’s Ravens once again cause even more mayhem for Cleveland fans?
With these serious questions at the top of the mind and combining with the Thanksgiving festivities for one great series of days, we look at all of the anticipated games over the course of the holiday weekend across the NFL:
If the Bills want to stay alive inside of the AFC playoff chase, they’ll need a huge road win on Thanksgiving inside of the Superdome in New Orleans (via Syracuse.com).
Thursday: Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit, 9:30 am PT, FOX
Yes, the Lions are winless so far this season. Yes, there’s a chance they will not have Jared Goff again this week. And yes, the Bears have dominated this divisional series in recent years. But this meaningless Thanksgiving battle could easily give way to whichever team comes out more aggressive and with more energy on Thursday, which has to give Detroit some type of edge after the type of reaction coming out of Chicago in terms of their reception toward head coach Matt Nagy. The Bears are officially lost right now, and without the explosiveness of Justin Fields on Thursday, this is the breakthrough win the Lions have been waiting for in Year 1 of the Dan Campbell era.
Detroit: 20 Chicago: 17
Thursday: Las Vegas @ Dallas (-7.5), 1:30 pm PT, CBS
Dallas is a mess in terms of their overall health right now, making this intriguing Thanksgiving matchup a very tough call. With both of their two top receivers out and with issues on the offensive line, the Cowboys have some real problems on their hands and could struggle against a fairly decent Las Vegas defensive line that is able to get after the passer. Derek Carr and the Raiders have struggled as of late on offense, and also may continue to do so on Sunday against this Dallas defense, but tread very carefully with the extra hook on this spread. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys should find a way to win still, but the Raiders will surely make this interesting in this Turkey Day battle in the heart of Texas.
Dallas: 24 Las Vegas: 20
Thursday: Buffalo (-6.0) @ New Orleans, 5:20 pm PT, NBC
Think the Bills are tired of hearing how overrated they are by now? Given the fact that New Orleans is falling apart at the seams without a viable starting quarterback at the helm, this wacky spread is a complete mirage based off the pushback that the Bills have received in the past month. Josh Allen is still a very good quarterback and the Bills are still very good on both sides of the ball, so what better way is there to silence any sort of doubters than with a win on the road on a national holiday? Take the Bills by a ton in this matchup.
Buffalo: 38 New Orleans: 17
Sunday: Atlanta (-1.0) @ Jacksonville, 10:00 am PT, FOX
The most boring game of the holiday weekend is certainly this sleeper of a matchup, especially after Jacksonville’s latest blowout loss to the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons have been an absolute joke over their past couple of weeks in some truly embarrassing displays, but the still have the key edge at quarterback and skill positions on both sides over the Jaguars. The Falcons are the wrong team to bet on in these types of scenarios where everything seems clear and obvious, but if you throw down a bet on a team in this matchup, lean slightly toward Atlanta over Urban Meyer and the Jags.
Atlanta: 28 Jacksonville: 21
Sunday: New York J @ Houston (-3.0), 10:00 am PT, CBS
A spread that we are struggling to understand based off one week, the Texans are getting the nod as the home favorite this weekend against a Jets team that may be getting back their rookie quarterback. The Jets may not be a good team by any means, but it is not hard to imagine Zach Wilson and the Jets offense putting up some decent points against one of the worst defenses in football. In addition, the Jets are simply the more talented team on both sides of the ball, and while things have turned out quite cloudy again for New York fans, they’ll take any win they can get against a lesser opponent like Houston.
New York J.: 30 Houston: 23
Sunday: Philadelphia (-3.5) @ New York G., 10:00 am PT, FOX
Everyone is suddenly sky high on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles following a nice little streak, while everyone is pounding on Daniel Jones and the Giants for their loss on Monday night. What has this type of sign shown us all year long? Upset alert. Even though we’ll take New York outright eventually, the Giants are getting a little too much with that hook not to swallow this spread right away for as long as it sits on the table. These two teams are fairly close and in no man’s land in the NFL, giving the advantage to the angry team coming off a national TV embarrassment with a capable defense and some solid skill players looking for an offensive breakthrough following the firing of their previous offensive coordinator.
New York G.: 27 Philadelphia: 23
Sunday: Tennessee @ New England (-6.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
Don’t overreact too much to the Titans’ overdue loss at the hands of the feeble Texans last week; this is still a real Super Bowl contender capable of beating any team in the league on any given week. Tennessee is transitioning their style of play on offense right now with the loss of Derrick Henry for much of the season, putting pressure on Ryan Tannehill and the passing game to get things going in a flash. Luckily, they still have enough skill position players to put up points, while the Titans’ defense has proven to be one of the most underrated units in the league so far. This could be an issue for Mac Jones and company on Sunday, and even though we’ll still give a slight edge to the Patriots on Sunday, look for this to be a very close and ugly game.
New England: 17 Tennessee: 14
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are red-hot on offense right now, which gives them a huge chance at the next step of their playoff chance this week against the 49ers (via The Athletic).
Sunday: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-6.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
What exactly are the Steelers? That continues to be the question from week-to-week for this confusing squad, especially entering a fierce rivalry game that could decide their playoff fate. Yet the Bengals’ identity is much more clear: playing solid defense to back up the occasional bloops and bombs from Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ exciting offense. That seems to be a formula that has given Pittsburgh some problems this season, and even though this spread seems a little high, the Bengals simply look like the better team right now. The spread is a tough one to look at and accept, but the Bengals may prove that they’re a playoff team at home on Sunday against their most hated opponent.
Cincinnati: 31 Pittsburgh: 16
Sunday: Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Indianapolis, 10:00 am PT, FOX
The Colts should be a playoff team this season in the AFC, but the Bucs are not the type of team that Indy matches up well against. Built upon their ground game, Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ may be limited on Sunday against Tampa’s elite run defense, forcing the game to fall into the hands of Carson Wentz. Yet if Wentz even makes one or two mistakes, it will be hard to keep up with Tom Brady and Tampa’s elite offense on Sunday, spelling some concern for one of the hottest teams in the league right now. A potential Indianapolis loss on Sunday will not be a true reflection of their season, but look for a dominating Tampa Bay win in a score that many people may not see coming after last week’s game.
Tampa Bay: 38 Indianapolis: 17
Sunday: Carolina (-2.0) @ Miami, 10:00 am PT, FOX
This is a “say it out loud” type of game: can you really picture Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense competing with the streaking Cam Newton-led Carolina Panthers and their awesome defense on Sunday? Yes, the Dolphins have played much better football as of late, but Carolina has real playoff aspirations and is playing with much more on the line in this matchup. This spread is once again built up by the trends over the past several weeks and the result of the Panthers’ tough loss to Washington last week, but do not get it confused: Carolina is a much better team than Miami heading into the weekend.
Carolina: 24 Miami: 13
Sunday: Los Angeles C. (-2.5) @ Denver, 1:05 pm PT, CBS
Are the Chargers finally ready to emerge as a contender in the AFC? This weekend will give us that exact answer, especially in a tough spot where the Bolts have really struggled in the past decade. Denver will get the boost of coming off a much-needed bye week to settle some of their internal chaos, but Justin Herbert and the Chargers are coming off a huge win in primetime over the Steelers last week. The Chargers are much better than the Broncos right now, but doubt remains about Los Angeles’ ability to close the deal in these tight, divisional spots. But this team may be different with Herbert in charge, inspiring confidence that this team can come out of the Mile High City with a huge win in the AFC West.
Los Angeles C.: 23 Denver: 20
Sunday: Minnesota @ San Francisco (-3.0), 1:25 pm PT, FOX
Getting points on the road for the better team is always a welcome sight, especially after the Vikings’ latest win over the rival Packers last weekend. Minnesota’s offense looks like one of the best in the league right now, and even though the 49ers will present a challenge on defense this Sunday, their offense is often too Deebo Samuel and George Kittle-centric to really scare opponents. Until their offense finally falls apart on a Sunday, it is hard to pick against Kirk Cousins and these Vikings right now, and we’ll take them comfortably in thus huge NFC showdown.
Minnesota: 30 San Francisco: 20
Sunday: Los Angeles R. @ Green Bay (-1.0), 1:25 pm PT, FOX
Despite their close effort against the Vikings last week, is anyone going to mention just how banged up the Packers are right now? With Pro Bowl level talent missing on both sides of the ball, it is truly impressive that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are keeping the ship afloat right now in the middle of this intense NFC playoff hunt. Yet the Rams coming off a bye under Sean McVay is usually bad news for opponents, even inside the frozen confines of Lambeau Field. The Rams are simply one of the most talented (and one of the healthiest) teams in the league, and Green Bay may seem out of sorts on Sunday with their overwhelming number of missing players.
Los Angeles R.: 24 Green Bay: 23
Sunday: Cleveland @ Baltimore (-3.5), 5:20 pm PT, NBC
These two teams faced off in primetime last season in one of the best games of the year, so what can we expect this time around? Both of these squads have been tough to predict in terms of the spread all season long, but the discouraging health of Baker Mayfield outweighs any sort of faith that bettors may have in Cleveland right now. The Browns’ run game will put up points on Sunday, but giving Lamar Jackson and the Ravens just 3.5 points seems very small for a Baltimore squad that needs to start turning the corner and getting in playoff mode very shortly. Take the Ravens in this spot by a touchdown or more despite concerns on defense for Baltimore.
Baltimore: 33 Cleveland: 24
Monday: Seattle @ Washington (-1.0), 5:15 pm PT, ESPN
Stay as far away as possible from this game. While Washington looks like they are starting to turn a new leaf and show signs of their overall promise from last season, the Seahawks are a complete mystery from week-to-week right now after two bad losses with the return of Russell Wilson. Yet the idea that Wilson is getting the underdog treatment on Monday Night Football may be a welcome sight for bettors, especially if this Seahawks’ squad can finally start to air it out against a weak Washington secondary. Look for a nice performance from the Seahawks on Monday, but do not be surprised if Washington finds a way to shock Seattle for the 3rd straight week.
Seattle: 27 Washington: 26