NFL Weekly Wonder Vol. 7 - Week 15
By Peyton Schultze
Micah Parsons is surging as a real candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in one of the most special seasons for a rookie in recent memory (via Penn Live).
With just four weeks to go, the playoff picture between both conferences gets even tighter. With every single win or loss meaning more and more in terms of postseason hopes, nearly every game in Week 15 has some type of impact in the league, stirring up some real excitement as the regular season winds down and we get ever-so-closer to Super Bowl LVI.
But with that said, what does this enticing weekend slate of games in Week 15 look like? Will the Chargers find their moment and take over the Chiefs’ spot at the top of the AFC West? Will the Steelers find a way to stay alive with a win over the tough Tennessee Titans? Can the Colts beat up the red-hot Patriots to put a dent in the AFC playoff picture? Will Tom Brady and the Buccaneers overcome their prior issues against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football? And can Aaron Rodgers and the Packers keep their winning ways going with a huge road win over the Ravens?
With these key thoughts and questions at the top of mind heading into this tight NFL weekend, we present our game-by-game looks at each matchup throughout the league in Week 15:
Game Picks
The Browns’ defense was sensational last weekend against the Ravens and may be their key to a playoff berth in the AFC (via Dawgs by Nature).
Thursday: Kansas City (-3.0) @ Los Angeles C., 5:20 pm PT, FOX
Arguably one of the biggest games of the year in the entire AFC, Kansas City heads west for a huge primetime battle on Thursday night with Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Kansas City has been exceptional on defense as of late, but it is worth noting that the Chargers’ are starting to find their groove on both sides of the ball. And with the Chiefs still having occasional lapses on offense against teams not named the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles actually has the firepower to not only win this game, but take over first place in the division. This could be a statement for the Bolts on Thursday night, and while it may be tough to take down the reigning AFC champs for the second time in a single season, Herbert and company may have what it takes.
Los Angeles C.: 27 Kansas City: 23
Saturday: Las Vegas @ Cleveland (-3.0), 1:30 pm PT, NFL Network
Who are the Las Vegas Raiders? And who are the Cleveland Browns? Few teams in the league are more unpredictable from week-to-week than these two squads, making this battle a complete tossup on Saturday afternoon. The Browns definitely have some renewed momentum following last week’s win over the rival Ravens, yet the Raiders are coming off an embarrassing loss and have everything to play for in order to stay in the fight in the AFC playoff picture. Yet the tough spot here is the three-point spread, which denies any doubt that the oddsmakers are confident in this Browns’ squad after an important win. Lean toward Cleveland, but try to avoid this game altogether.
Cleveland: 17 Las Vegas: 14
Saturday: New England @ Indianapolis (-2.5), 5:20 pm PT, NFL Network
A bitter rivalry renewed headlines the Saturday night slate in the NFL, especially as the Colts look to continue their playoff push with a home win over the league’s hottest team. It is definitely a little surprising to see the Colts favored with both teams coming off a bye week, and while Mac Jones and the Patriots may not be the league’s flashiest team, they may be the grittiest. That is a huge factor against a Colts’ team that is more than capable in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but the Pats still seem like the better team heading into the weekend. Expect a low-scoring affair, giving even more of a reason to side with New England on the road.
New England: 21 Indianapolis: 16
Sunday: Carolina @ Buffalo (-10.5), 10:00 am PT, FOX
The Bills may be in the middle of a disappointing season, but they have absolutely dominated lesser opponents with a large spread this season. This matters even more after Josh Allen and the Bills found some hope in the second half of last week’s loss to the Buccaneers, which could spell some bad news for a Carolina squad that is limping to the finish line right now. Buffalo returns to their own friendly confines for this battle, and while the Panthers may show some fight early on in the one, the Bills are in the driver’s seat to settle their woes and return to their winning ways on both sides of the ball.
Buffalo: 31 Carolina: 10
Sunday: Houston @ Jacksonville (-3.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
For anyone who dares bet on this game, good luck. But if deciding between two measly teams in the AFC South is your thing, feel free to go all-in and ride with the Texans on Sunday. The Jaguars are a complete mess right now with Urban Meyer in charge, and while this team showed some signs of promise about midway through the season, they have completely sputtered to a resounding stop as the season has started to wind down. And while the Texans are unquestionably a bad team, they are fighting hard right now with the odds stacked against them. The fact that the extra half-point hook is added in right now for the Jaguars gives even more of a reason to side with the Texans in what could be a snooze fest on Sunday morning.
Houston: 28 Jacksonville: 20
Sunday: Tennessee (-2.0) @ Pittsburgh, 10:00 am PT, CBS
A common theme for this series over the course of the season has been to bury Pittsburgh as a favorite, yet ride them to glory as an underdog. This seems even more glaring with some extended time coming off last week Thursday night battle with the Vikings, where despite the loss, the Steelers found some momentum on offense through some increased pacing with Big Ben at the helm. Throw in the fact that the Titans are winning some low-scoring battles right now against much lesser competition with the absence of Derrick Henry, and it becomes more and more promising for a Pittsburgh squad fighting for their playoff lives. Lock up the Steelers this weekend outright in what could be a very sluggish and hard-nosed fight between two playoff hopefuls in the AFC.
Pittsburgh: 24 Tennessee: 20
Sunday: Arizona (-13.5) @ Detroit, 10:00 am PT, FOX
The Lions have hit plenty of backdoor covers this season, but a home matchup with an angry Cardinals’ team that remains undefeated away from Arizona could get ugly very quickly. The Cardinals played one of their worst games of the season on Monday against the Rams, and while Kyler Murray struggled against Aaron Donald and company, they only lost by 7 and had a chance to tie it at the end of the game. On the flip side, the Lions were dominated by a Denver team coming off an emotional week last Sunday, and things will get even tougher against this explosive team. Take the Cardinals by a lot on Sunday, even with the massive 13.5 point spread.
Arizona: 42 Detroit: 17
Sunday: New York J. @ Miami (-8.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
Outside of the two AFC Super Bowl contenders in Kansas City and New England, no team in the NFL is hotter right now than the Miami Dolphins. Yet is their cause for concern in terms of their momentum after a late-season bye week that saw several players fall into health and safety protocols? Certainly, but it is still hard to lean toward picking the Jets outright. Yet the sunny Miami conditions could play well in terms of a nice day from Zach Wilson and the Jets’ offense, but the Dolphins’ turnover-happy defense still may have the upper hand. We’ll cautiously take the Dolphins in this battle, but look for the Jets to cover in this case and put up a fight against an AFC East rival.
Miami: 24 New York J.: 17
Tom Brady has dealt with some issues against the Saints in the past two seasons, but will look to resolve those problems on Sunday night in Tampa Bay (via Canal Street Chronicles).
Sunday: Dallas (-10.5) @ New York G., 10:00 am PT, FOX
Dallas is winning right now, but not because of their starpower on offense. Instead, it has been all about an aggressive defense led by Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons in Big D, which could be a massive concern for a Giants’ team that is banged up at quarterback right now. While the Giants have been good against the spread this season, Dallas remains one of the best teams in football in terms of cover percentage. And with this high of a spread surely turning off some bettors, don’t be afraid to jump on this number early and hope for a resurgent performance from Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense in what may be a complete blowout in the NFC East.
Dallas: 36 New York G.: 18
Sunday: Washington @ Philadelphia (-4.5), 10:00 am PT, FOX
Certainly the strangest spread of the week, Washington heads to the City of Brotherly Love for a major late-season matchup between two divisional foes. Washington played poorly last week despite a late comeback effort against the Cowboys, while the Eagles are rested and coming off a much-needed bye week. Yet both teams remain fringe wild card squads in the wide-open bottom half of the NFC, which means that the winner of this game could be in a prime position to take a leap into the playoffs. It is tempting to roll with Philly coming off a bye, but we’ll take the better-coached team in Washington with Ron Rivera looking to guide his team back into the postseason for the second straight season.
Washington: 20 Philadelphia: 17
Sunday: Atlanta @ San Francisco (-8.5), 1:05 pm PT, CBS
Despite all of the strange losses and weird wins over the course of the season… the Falcons remain just a game outside of the NFC playoff picture? It is a shock to look up at the standings and see this Atlanta team in the thick of things right now, but the Falcons are getting some nice production on defense to make up for some of the inconsistencies on offense. This sounds a lot like a 49ers team that is also hanging on by a thread right now in the NFC wild card chase, and while Jimmy Garoppolo has played well and once again formed a dynamic connection with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, this spread is massive. Upsets come at the strangest times this season, and while the 49ers look like they easily win on Sunday, we’ll take the Falcons outright in our upset of the week.
Atlanta: 23 San Francisco: 20
Sunday: Cincinnati @ Denver (-1.5), 1:05 pm PT, CBS
Cincinnati played in a thriller last weekend against a good San Francisco squad, while Denver throttled a bad Lions team following a devastating week in the Mile High City. So what gives in this huge game that could help clear up the AFC playoff picture? If the Broncos remain committed to a deadly rushing attack with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, they deserve to be the favorite in this battle and could give the Bengals some fits on defense. Meanwhile, while Joe Burrow and the Cincy passing attack has played well all year, the Broncos’ secondary has been insanely productive as of late. The Broncos have the edge at home in this one in what could be a win that propels them inside of the AFC playoff picture.
Denver: 24 Cincinnati: 20
Sunday: Seattle @ Los Angeles R. (-7.0), 1:25 pm PT, FOX
Seattle looked much better on both sides of the ball last weekend, but let’s be real: they played the god awful Houston Texans. They meet an entirely different animal this weekend in Los Angeles, where the Rams are coming off an impressive win over the division-leading Arizona Cardinals. The Rams should also get back a surplus of players who missed last week’s game because of health reasons, while Seattle is still vulnerable on the offensive line and in the secondary on defense. That is a very bad sign against a Los Angeles team that may have just turned the corner, and it would not be a surprise to see this matchup get out of hand very quickly in the game.
Los Angeles R.: 30 Seattle: 20
Sunday: Green Bay (-5.0) @ Baltimore, 1:25 pm PT, FOX
With or without Lamar Jackson in the lineup on Sunday, this is certainly our lock of the week with a spread this low. Green Bay might be the best team in all of football right now, while Baltimore is completely decimated on their offensive line and in their defensive secondary. That is a terrifying thought heading into a matchup with Aaron Rodgers and the hot Packers’ offense, especially as they look to continue their momentum as they charge toward the top seed in the NFC. The Ravens fell to the Browns last week despite a late comeback effort; against a much better Packers’ team this week, why would this game be any closer?
Green Bay: 31 Baltimore: 20
Sunday: New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-11.0), 5:20 pm PT, NBC
Does recent history show that bettors should ride with the Saints over the Bucs? Yes. But does a gut feeling matter even more when it comes to a Tom Brady primetime game late into the season? Absolutely. With Taysom Hill at quarterback for the Saints, New Orleans will have to find some type of success through the air since Tampa consistently deploys the best run defense in all of football, while Brady and the Bucs’ offense is finding their groove again. Those are factors that should be considered, and while the spread is rather large, Tampa is suddenly hot once again. TB12 has not played well against this New Orleans defense in his two years with the Bucs, but look for big games from Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette to re-establish this team as the league favorite to win the Super Bowl once again.
Tampa Bay: 37 New Orleans: 21
Monday: Minnesota (-3.5) @ Chicago, 5:15 pm PT, ESPN
Yes, the Bears were once again beaten by the Packers last weekend. But Justin Fields and the Bears showed some signs of life against a very good Green Bay defense, which could be a major factor moving forward as the Bears look to develop their talent on offense. Meanwhile, while Minnesota was able to sneak by the Steelers last week with a win, it was not without some controversy as Kirk Cousins once again fell into an ice-cold trap in primetime. These two standouts bring some major concern for bettors on Monday night, especially since Minnesota should win this game on-paper. With that, take the jump with the hook and ride with the Bears, especially as they have a chance to foil their rival’s playoff plans with a shocking win on Monday Night Football.
Chicago: 26 Minnesota: 23