NFL Weekly Wonder Vol. 1 - Week 3
By Peyton Schultze
Derrick Henry once again proved he’s one of the most dominant offensive forces in football, plowing through a Seattle defense that had nothing to stop the Titans’ power back (via Field Gulls).
After a yearlong break, the Weekly Wonder returns for the first edition of the 2021 season with all-new insight into all 32 teams in their matchups this weekend. Focused primarily on sports betting and fantasy football-related choices on a weekly basis this year, the Golden Angeleno’s NFL Weekly Wonder takes on a new format with top options such as our lock of the week, game of the week, and stay-away game of the week.
So, what happens in Week 3? Will the Buccaneers go on the road and squeak out a road win against the Rams in a battle of NFC contenders? Can the Raiders and Broncos ride their red-hot 2-0 starts to another win? Can the Steelers get back on track against the rival Bengals after a crushing defeat last week? Will the Cowboys be able to dominate the rival Eagles in their 2021 home opener? And can Aaron Rodgers and the Packers overcome some personal football demons in San Francisco on Sunday Night Football?
With that said, we present our look at Week 3’s impactful matchups and fantasy implications across the National Football League:
Game Picks
It’s a battle of elite AFC quarterbacks this weekend in Kansas City, as the Chiefs and Chargers look to bounce back from tough losses in Week 2 (via NFL.com).
Thursday: Carolina (-8.0) @ Houston; 5:20 pm PT, NFL Network
Can rookie Davis Mills get his first career win in his inaugural start in the NFL on Thursday Night Football? Don’t bet on it with Carolina off to an excellent two-week start to open up this season, especially if running back Christian McCaffrey can continue his production that has been demonstrated early on this season. The Panthers may not be an elite team yet, but the gap between the two teams may be quite evident on Thursday night. Confidently roll with the Panthers despite the current spread that just touches over a one-touchdown game.
Carolina: 30 Houston: 10
Sunday: Baltimore (-8.0) @ Detroit, 10:00 am PT, CBS
It is usually too early to say that a Week 2 win may have been season-saving, but that may have actually been the case for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in their epic comeback win over the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Now, expect Baltimore to get rolling on both sides of the ball. On the other end of the field, even though their offense has shown signs of life with Jared Goff at quarterback, the Detroit defense is going to have a major issue defending the Ravens’ prolific running game, and could trail from the get-go in this game. Look for a resounding Ravens’ win to put them back at the top of the AFC North.
Baltimore: 38 Detroit: 23
Sunday: Atlanta @ New York G. (-3.0), 10:00 am PT, FOX
Are we sure that the Giants are a well-coached team that can clearly gain an advantage with extra rest? Daniel Jones played well last week against a tough Washington front seven, but he’ll need to find some consistency on Sunday to go toe-to-toe with a Matt Ryan-led team that is still searching for their first win of the season. These are two teams that are a mystery on a week-to-week basis, which makes this a very tough choice from a betting standpoint, but Atlanta simply has proven to be able to generate more big plays with Matt Ryan at the helm, giving a slight edge to the Falcons on Sunday.
Atlanta: 27 New York G.: 23
Sunday: New Orleans @ New England (-3.0), 10:00 am PT, FOX
🔒* Pick of the Week*
New Orleans was a major disappointment last week against the Panthers, and they’re met with another tough matchup on the road this week against the Pats. New England may have a conservative offense under rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but their defense may cause some mayhem for Jameis Winston and the Saints’ offense on Sunday morning. Take the Patriots in a low-scoring bout, and maybe even look at betting the under (42.0) in a battle of teams trying to find their footing.
New England: 20 New Orleans: 13
Sunday: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-3.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
Is anyone else tired of betting on Pittsburgh as clear home favorites? The Steelers have proven time and time again to play down to their opponents, including last week against a lesser Raiders’ squad and last year against a depleted Bengals’ roster, which builds some real cause for concern. Big Ben and TJ Watt also enter this game with injury designations, so could there be an upset in the AFC North? Not quite, but expect an ugly affair on Sunday in Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh: 17 Cincinnati: 14
Sunday: Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-5.0), 10:00 am PT, CBS
Another year and another injury for quarterback Carson Wentz, as the Colts will likely turn to Jacob Eason with Wentz dealing with sprained ankles on both of his legs. The Colts have a had a very tough schedule to begin the year in being matched up with three straight elite offenses, but some early signs on both sides of the ball point toward a disappointing season for Indianapolis. Tennessee rallied late against Seattle and found some of the explosive offense that so many predicted for the Titans this season, and with two teams heading in different directions, this should be a convincing Titans’ win.
Tennessee: 31 Indianapolis: 20
Sunday: Washington @ Buffalo (-8.5), 10:00 am PT, FOX
Buffalo was a disappointment in Week 1, but exploded last weekend against the Dolphins in a resounding win that once again sparked the noise about their Super Bowl hopes. Yet Ron Rivera’s Washington Football Team presents an interesting challenge to the Bills this weekend, especially with a pass rush that is looking for a signature game early in the season. The key to this game is simple: can the Bills’ defense hold WFT’s rushing attack, and not allow the game to turn into a ball-possession outing? If they can, this should be a nice home win for Buffalo with their seemingly unstoppable offense ready to get rolling.
Buffalo: 34 Washington: 23
Sunday: Los Angeles C. @ Kansas City (-6.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
Kansas City has really not played like themselves on defense through two weeks this season, which spells concern heading into the weekend against Justin Herbert and a nice Chargers’ offense. But after a nail-biting loss in Baltimore that ended with Patrick Mahomes’ first career loss in September, expect Andy Reid to have his team focused on this important divisional game. The Chargers’ key to this game will be their effectiveness on the ground with running back Austin Ekeler, but with Mahomes likely to score on the other side early and often, take the Chiefs by ten or more in their second home game of the season.
Kansas City: 38 Los Angeles C.: 24
Aaron Rodgers has not always played well against the 49ers over the course of his career, which places some pressure on him and the Packers in a massive Sunday night matchup (via San Francisco Chronicle).
Sunday: Arizona (-7.5) @ Jacksonville, 10:00 am PT, FOX
This low of a spread with two teams going in opposite directions? Arizona can be a tough bet from week-to-week with some consistency issues, but Kyler Murray is simply playing too well to begin the season for this low of a number. Expect Jacksonville to once again have some issues blocking on the offensive line, and it would not be a surprise if this game got out of hand very early on. Arizona will start the season 3-0 and once again prove to be a real threat in the NFC West.
Arizona: 42 Jacksonville: 17
Sunday: Chicago @ Cleveland (-7.0), 10:00 am PT, FOX
It’s Justin Fields’ first career start in Chicago, but does he have a chance against a fierce Cleveland pass rush? Fields may provide a spark early on in this road battle for the Bears, but expect things to get sticky very quickly if Chicago’s once-great defense struggles to contain the Browns’ elite rushing attack. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could have a feast day against this Chicago defense, with some timely play-action from Baker Mayfield mixed in as well, in what should be an easy home win for the Browns at home.
Cleveland: 30 Chicago: 17
Sunday: New York J. @ Denver (-10.5), 1:05 pm PT, CBS
The Broncos have played excellent through two games to open the year, but it is hard to see this number and not be at least a little worried about a potential cover. However, you can’t rule out just how much Mile High will be rocking this weekend in the Broncos’ home opener, which could cause plenty of issues for Zach Wilson and a young Jets’ offense that experienced some growing pains last weekend against the Patriots. The Jets are in a tough position in facing two elite defenses this early in the season, and although there may be some flashes on Sunday, look for Denver to get to 3-0 behind a solid home performance.
Denver: 27 New York J.: 13
Sunday: Miami @ Las Vegas (-3.5), 1:05 pm PT, CBS
All signs point toward a Raiders’ home win on Sunday afternoon with Tua Tagovailoa likely out and with Derek Carr playing at such a high level to start the season, right? It is never just that easy for Raider fans, although they deserve recognition for two nice early season wins against NFC North foes. However, this game is more about a good Dolphins’ team that does not really take a step back from Tagovailoa to quarterback Jacoby Brissett, and will be able to move the ball against the Vegas defense. Always take the better team coming off an embarrassing loss in the previous week, and ride with head coach Brian Flores to deliver an important road win for Miami.
Miami: 27 Las Vegas: 23
Sunday: Seattle (-1.5) @ Minnesota, 1:25 pm PT, FOX
In what should be a high-flying affair, Seattle and Minnesota meet up in a huge game for both teams. While the Vikings are looking to avoid a miserable 0-3 start, the Seahawks are hoping to escape from Minnesota with a win before falling to 1-2 through three weeks in a loaded NFC West. Both teams have defenses that allow a lot of big plays, so who has the advantage on Sunday afternoon? Never doubt Russell Wilson this early in the season, especially against a secondary that doesn’t have anyone to match up with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, in what could be a fun, competitive game.
Seattle: 38 Minnesota: 35
Sunday: Tampa Bay (-1.0) @ Los Angeles R., 1:25 pm PT, FOX
⭐* Game of the Week*
Sunday’s best game resides in Los Angeles, where Tom Brady travels to the coasts of Southern California for the first time in his NFL career against the loaded Rams in SoFi Stadium. Both teams could easily be considered Super Bowl favorites this early in the season with very limited flaws on either side, but this game is especially key for the Rams to stay even in the NFC West. So where is the one crack in the armor, for either team? The Rams’ wide receiving group has proven to be consistently elite, while Tampa has been spotty from time-to-time against the pass, which could be the difference in the game. This could easily be a fourth quarter game that comes down to the final possession, but at full health on-paper right now, we’ll take the Rams at home in a game that could easily move to a pick ‘em by kickoff on Sunday.
Los Angeles: 28 Tampa Bay: 27
Sunday: Green Bay @ San Francisco (-3.5), 5:20 pm PT, NBC
🚨* Stay-Away Game*
Avoid this game at all costs. This head-to-head series seems to go back and forth every single year, and even though Green Bay is coming off a nice home win on Monday night, they did not prove much to anyone. On the other side, the 49ers are riding a 2-0 start to the top of the NFC West behind a dominant pass rush and some timely plays from the San Francisco passing game, but concerns remain on the injury front. San Francisco should have a slight edge at home on Sunday night, especially in a place where Aaron Rodgers has struggled from time-to-time, but it would be wise to not make a huge investment in the case of the half-point hook or a huge Green Bay victory.
San Francisco: 27 Green Bay: 24
Monday: Philadelphia @ Dallas (-4.0), 5:15 pm PT, ESPN
How good are the Cowboys? That’s the question on everyone’s mind right now after some promising signs through the first two weeks, which sets the stage for the Cowboys’ primetime home opener on Monday Night Football. The Eagles also have plenty of questions of their own, but Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has showed time and time again that he is a real villain for Philly fans. If the Cowboys’ defense can continue their great start to the season and not allow Eagles’ signal caller Jalen Hurts to explode, take Dallas comfortably at home.
Dallas: 31 Philadelphia: 24
Fantasy Picks of the Week
Wilson is once again off to a hot start this season, and could produce some gigantic offensive numbers this week against the Vikings (via Sporting News).
Quarterback: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota
Few quarterbacks have proven to be as consistent as Wilson year in and year out, especially early in the year when Seattle needs to deliver some key wins to set the tempo for the rest of the year. This trend has continued once again for the Seahawks’ signal caller, who braces for a weak Minnesota secondary that ranks 26th in the league against the pass through two weeks. Throw in the fact that Tyler Lockett is dominating defenses right now and DK Metcalf is due for a signature breakthrough game and fantasy players can expect #3 to torch the Vikings on Sunday, in what should be a high-flying, scoring affair.
Alternates: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs Indianapolis, Sam Darnold (CAR) vs Houston
Running Back: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City
Ekeler has been solid through the first two weeks of the season, but one would be mistaken to think he has dominated defenses at the level that many expected so far. That could change this Sunday if the Chargers want any chance of slaying the mighty Chiefs, who have dealt with some massive struggles against the run this season on defense. The Chargers’ key to this game will be having enough patience to run the ball with Ekeler on offense, even if Mahomes and the Kansas City offense scores early and often, so expect the shifty running back to be the Bolts’ primary offensive focus on Sunday.
Alternates: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) vs LAC, Melvin Gordon III (DEN) vs New York J.
Wide Receiver: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay
Remember what we said about the Rams being able to expose the Buccaneers’ secondary on Sunday? Well, with Cooper Kupp likely to attract a lot of attention on Sunday after two huge games to open the year, Robert Woods could face some soft coverage often on Sunday to open up the passing game with quarterback Matthew Stafford. Woods also adds some nice touch with the occasional jet-sweep play made popular once again by head coach Sean McVay, and while he is not quite a deep threat, he is a third-down machine who dominates in the middle of the field and with yards after the catch. Expect Woods to have his first major moment with Stafford in charge on Sunday afternoon.
Alternates: AJ Brown (TEN) vs Indianapolis, CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs Philadelphia