NFL Weekly Wonder Vol. 2 - Week 4
By Peyton Schultze
Denver’s defense has caused pure mayhem through three weeks, but they face their toughest test yet this weekend versus the Ravens (via The Denver Post).
Back-to-back volumes of the Weekly Wonder series must mean there is something major brewing in the NFL, right? There may not be a more important regular season week full of games from now until the end of the regular season, largely because of the looming Sunday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Patriots clouding above the rest of the league.
But with that in mind, what does Week 4 have in store? Will Tom Brady put together a game for the ages in his former home New England inside Gillette Stadium? Can the Chiefs recover from back-to-back losses with a win on the road versus the Eagles? Can the Broncos continue their ferocious start to the season at home against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Will the Cowboys be able to shut the door on the Panthers’ fast start to the season? And who will win the massive Monday Night Football matchup between two AFC West foes with the Raiders and Chargers?
With those questions at the top of everyone’s mind, we present our look at Week 4’s massive matchups and important fantasy notes across the National Football League:
Game Picks
Cincinnati gets their moment in the spotlight this Thursday in a primetime matchup with the dreadful Jaguars (via Cincy Jungle).
Thursday: Jacksonville @ Cincinnati (-7.5), 5:20 pm PT, NFL Network
Joe Burrow’s Bengals have a chance to start the season with a 3-1 record? Cincinnati was not a team that many people expected to burst onto the scene this season, but after some dominant defensive displays and emerging promise on offense, the Bengals look like a potentially dangerous team in the AFC. The opposite appears to be the case for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Head coach Urban Meyer appears to be stuck at the bottom with this Jacksonville team, and with Lawrence going through some typical rookie growing pains, things look bleak in this battle of young quarterbacks. The Bengals should win this battle at home, and likely in impressive fashion.
Cincinnati: 30 Jacksonville: 20
Sunday: New York G. @ New Orleans (-8.0), 10:00 am PT, FOX
New Orleans is going to have a party this weekend. After the team’s return home to the Crescent City after the impact from Hurricane Ida, the Superdome is going to be loud and proud on Sunday, making things ever-so-difficult for Daniel Jones and company. The Giants sit at 0-3 with struggles on both sides of the ball, and although Jones has actually shown some decent improvement this season, he is not being given a lot of help on the offensive line or on defense. This is a tough spot for Joe Judge and company, and the Saints have a nice chance of improving their playoff hopes and getting to 3-1 through four weeks.
New Orleans: 23 New York G.: 21
Sunday: Kansas City (-7.0) @ Philadelphia, 10:00 am PT, CBS
🔒 *Pick of the Week*
It seems like a surprise that this spread is even this close. Yes, the Chiefs played terrible last weekend against the Chargers, but they still remain as explosive as any team in football. And even though their defense has some major concerns across the board, they catch a scheduling break against an Eagles’ offense that looked very bad on Monday night against the Cowboys. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are due for an A+ offensive effort after back-to-back losses, and while they have often struggled to cover the spread in the past year, these two teams are not in the same class by any means.
Kansas City: 45 Philadelphia: 23
Sunday: Houston @ Buffalo (-16.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
The Bills, after a concerning Week 1 loss at home to the Steelers, are back. Two straight weeks and two straight blowout victories have paved the way back to the top of the AFC East for Josh Allen and the Bills, who look like a premier Super Bowl contender once again on both sides of the ball. It is true that the Texans have not been nearly as bad as previously advertised, and a 16.5 point spread seems massive against any team, but this game probably will not be close in northeastern New York. The Bills will win this game big at home, and will look forward to a massive Week 5 matchup against the Chiefs.
Buffalo: 40 Houston: 13
Sunday: Carolina @ Dallas (-5.0), 10:00 am PT, FOX
The highlight of the early slate on Sunday happens to take place in Big D, where the undefeated Carolina Panthers head to Dallas for a huge matchup with the rolling Cowboys. Carolina has been a massive surprise so far this season with excellent play on both sides of the ball, but the Cowboys certainly present their toughest test yet. The Panthers have some unfortunate injuries on both sides of the ball right now which gives Dallas a huge advantage, but this spread still remains a cause for concern for the often-flaky Cowboys. We like the Cowboys to win and improve their record to 3-1, but the Panthers really are not far apart from this team on-paper and should take this battle deep into the fourth quarter.
Dallas: 30 Carolina: 27
Sunday: Cleveland (-2.0) @ Minnesota, 10:00 am PT, CBS
Outside of the second half against the Chiefs in Week 1, the Browns have looked like one of the best offenses in all of football. With the offensive line pounding defenses up front and with Odell Beckham Jr. back on the outside to give this unit some pop, Cleveland looks like they’re getting better every week and could get on a roll here pretty quickly. It is true that their opponents in Minnesota this weekend are coming off a huge win against the Seahawks to prevent an 0-3 start, but the Browns are simply more talented on both sides of the ball than the Vikings. This spread seems a little too low, and the Browns look like an easy pick this weekend.
Cleveland: 35 Minnesota: 27
Sunday: Indianapolis @ Miami (-1.5), 10:00 am PT, CBS
No team in the league has faced a tougher early season schedule than the Colts, who face the brink of AFC extinction in a conference battle down in South Beach. The Dolphins have had a fair amount of their own issues as well, especially with unreliable quarterback play and some severe struggles on the offensive line, but their defense remains a turnover-happy unit with potential to turn any game upside down. That is a major key against Carson Wentz and a Colts’ offense that is still finding their footing, but Indianapolis seems due for their first breakthrough this season. Miami is not a bad team by any means, but Indy seems primed to finally catch some air and walk out of South Florida with their first win of the season.
Indianapolis: 24 Miami: 20
Sunday: Tennessee (-7.5) @ New York J., 10:00 am PT, CBS
The Jets look like one of the worst teams in football right now, but beware of a backdoor cover in this spot. New York’s offense has had their fair struggles over the past two weekends, but there is a serious difference in the defensive talent in Tennessee and the ones that they have squared off against in Denver and with New England. Meanwhile, the Jets have actually played some solid football on the defensive line, occasionally limiting the opposition to having to generate big plays through the air. This doesn’t mean that the Jets will stop Derrick Henry by any means or that the playoff-hopeful Titans will fall on the road, but expect the best game of Zach Wilson’s young career so far in a closer-than-expected game.
Tennessee: 31 New York J.: 24
Coming home: Tom Brady’s highly-anticipated return to New England highlights the Sunday slate on exciting games (via CBS Sports).
Sunday: Detroit @ Chicago (-3.0), 10:00 am PT, FOX
Chicago was a pure disaster last week against the Browns in the first start of Justin Fields’ career, which could make a follow-up effort against the Lions a nice landing pad. However, the Lions have been super competitive this season despite an 0-3 start, and head coach Dan Campbell will have his team ready for Detroit’s first divisional matchup of the year. The Bears have allowed way too many sacks this season and Fields has to learn to get rid of the ball quicker, while their defense has also shown a ton of cracks this season. It should be a close game in the end, but after several weeks of competing against stiff competition, look for the Lions to get their first win of the year against the Bears on Sunday.
Detroit: 27 Chicago: 20
Sunday: Washington (-1.5) @ Atlanta, 10:00 am PT, FOX
🚨 *Stay-Away Game*
Both of these teams have been extremely hard to predict from a betting standpoint this season, which makes this morning bout one that is really too tough to call. However, after being completely destroyed by the Bills last week after some extra rest coming off a previous Thursday night game, there are a ton of concerns for Washington right now on both sides of the ball. The Falcons, meanwhile, remain the hardest team to predict in the entire league, and even though they’re coming off a win against the Giants last weekend, they have not shown a ton of flash this season. Atlanta gets the slight edge based on how both teams played last weekend, but don’t be surprised if Washington finds a way to sneak out of Atlanta with a road win.
Atlanta: 24 Washington: 23
Sunday: Arizona @ Los Angeles R. (-5.0), 1:05 pm PT, FOX
⚡ *Upset of the Week*
No team has been more impressive to start the season than the Los Angeles Rams, who are coming off one of the biggest regular season wins in franchise history since returning to LA. However, the Cardinals have shown just as much potential so far this season on both sides of the ball, and there is no doubt that Kyler Murray is quickly turning into one of the most dynamic players in the league. But for as good as the Rams have looked, they have shown some concerning signs in the secondary outside of Jalen Ramsey. This is where the Cardinals will attack the Rams, and after the major emotions of last week’s win over the Bucs, do not be surprised if Arizona pulls out a major upset on Sunday afternoon.
Arizona: 28 Los Angeles R.: 27
Sunday: Seattle @ San Francisco (-3.0), 1:05 pm PT, FOX
After back-to-back early season losses, Seattle’s season may already be on the brink of collapse in a loaded NFC West. It gets tougher considering they’ll travel to the Bay Area this weekend for this divisional bout with the 49ers, who were mere seconds away from defeating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Sunday night. However, San Francisco was a little creaky in pass defense last weekend, and it seems like this area of their defense is starting to become a legitimate cause for concern. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ offense will be desperate this weekend, and it would not be a surprise to see Seattle win on the road with some ease against a 49ers’ squad dealing with a lot of injuries.
Seattle: 33 San Francisco: 24
Sunday: Baltimore @ Denver (-1.0), 1:25 pm PT, CBS
Denver’s 3-0 start comes at the expense of three teams that are a combined 0-9 through the first three weeks of the season, which makes this weekend’s matchup their first real test of the season. Meanwhile, although Baltimore has experienced all types of in-game environments this season, including a raucous first home game against Kansas City and a miraculous win on the road behind the leg of Justin Tucker’s record-breaking kick in Detroit, they have not faced a defense quite like the Broncos yet. This could be a very even and hard-fought game coming down to the 4th quarter, which puts pressure on both quarterbacks to see who can make an extra play or two down the stretch. Of course, Lamar Jackson gains that edge with his unique talents, in what should be a thrilling game in the Mile High City.
Baltimore: 20 Denver: 17
Sunday: Pittsburgh @ Green Bay (-6.5), 1:25 pm PT, CBS
Green Bay heads back home to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field after a narrow escape last weekend in San Francisco, but they’ll face an interesting test with Pittsburgh in town this upcoming weekend. After back-to-back home losses to the Raiders and Bengals, the Steelers have been a true disappointment to start this season, and Green Bay may be starting to already turn the corner on what could be a special season. Mike Tomlin will surely have the Steelers ready to compete in this game, and the Steelers’ defensive line should actually be able to put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers in the pocket, but the Packers should be able to take this game at home.
Green Bay: 27 Pittsburgh: 23
Sunday: Tampa Bay (-6.5) @ New England, 5:20 pm PT, NBC
⭐ *Game of the Week*
There was no way that this wouldn’t be the game of the week. In what may be profiled as the most anticipated regular season game in recent memory, Tom Brady returns to New England for the first time as a member of the Buccaneers to square off with Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Brady will be hungry and as desperate as ever for a win versus his former team, and he will likely break the league’s passing yards record in the middle of this bout. This game will be all about the GOAT, both in the ovation he receives from the Boston faithful and in his performance on the field against a defense he knows all too well, in what should be a very easy win on the road for the defending Super Bowl champions.
Tampa Bay: 38 New England: 16
Monday: Las Vegas @ Los Angeles C. (-3.5), 5:15 pm PT, ESPN
If it wasn’t for plenty of other sensational games over the course of the weekend, this would certainly be the game of the week. The AFC West looks loaded this year, but no team in football has been more of a surprise than the Raiders. Does that mean they can head on the “road” to Los Angeles to compete with a team that is coming off a win against the reigning AFC champions? The Chargers look absolutely lethal on offense with quarterback Justin Herbert in so much control right now, and even though their defense has struggled against the run, they should be able to limit Derek Carr and the Vegas’ passing game. Take the Chargers in this one, even with that concerning extra half-point, in what should be a fun game on Monday night.
Los Angeles C.: 31 Las Vegas: 27
Fantasy Picks of the Week
He was a star last week and may be once again this week: Austin Ekeler is once again our fantasy pick of the week at running back (via The Athletic).
Quarterback: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The former LSU Heisman winner has played fairly well to start the season, but Thursday night could be his first major breakthrough of 2021. Facing a putrid Jacksonville defense that struggles both against the run and the pass, Burrow and the Cincinnati offense should be able to find a ton of success on Thursday night. So far in his short career, Burrow has been prone to have the occasional disaster start, such as two weeks ago against the Bears. Not this week. So much for some early preseason struggles; Burrow looks primed for a very nice season as the Bengals’ franchise leader moving forward.
Alternates: Justin Herbert (LAC) vs Las Vegas, Baker Mayfield (CLE) vs Minnesota
Running Back: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Ekeler was our pick last week as well, but with how good the Chargers have looked on offense this year, he is an easy pick once again. The Bolts’ running back adds points in the running and passing games for the Chargers, and his connection with quarterback Justin Herbert has been excellent so far. With that, even though the Raiders’ defense has played better as of late, they struggle at the second level and could be in a tough matchup with this Los Angeles offense. Ekeler should easily push over 20 points on Monday night in a huge win for the Chargers.
Alternates: Myles Gaskin (MIA) vs Indianapolis, Antonio Gibson (WFT) vs Atlanta
Wide Receiver: Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets
The future Hall of Fame wide receiver has jumped out to an interesting start to begin his Titans’ career, but with AJ Brown likely out for the foreseeable future, Jones steps into the top role as the best pass catcher for Ryan Tannehill. Running back Derrick Henry will still be the primary focal point for the Titans this weekend, but despite their struggles so far this year, the Jets have a strong defensive line. This means Tannehill could take to the air early and often in this game, paving the way for Jones to have his biggest game of the season yet. Expect over 100 yards and a touchdown for Julio in a nice Titans’ win.
Alternates: DK Metcalf (SEA) vs San Francisco, Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs Houston